This Depression keeps getting worse and worse.

[Maple]

The Republicans de-regulated the financial industry and set this up. Specifically, Phil Gramm was one of the major players in this mess. Time to re-regulate the financial institutions, among other industries.

What planet do you live on, that's been done. Obama is already restricting people's salaries. Were you on planet earth when the markets crashed last fall??? The bottom fell out of the mortgage securities markets, they were extremely overleveraged. Wanna know where it started? The Fair housing Act, forcing banks into loaning mortgage money to HIGH RISK applicants, that got the whole ball a rollin and then the crash some odd 30 years later. You want more regulation, well fella, that's exactly what got us here in the first place. BTW- you just bought someone else's mortgage, the government co-signed YOUR name to those high risk loans and you just bailed them out.

 

[Neubarth]

Economic growth is likely to be 3%-4% this quarter. We will see job growth within the next six months.

FACTORY ORDERS AUG 2009 –0.8%
DURABLE ORDERS AUG 2009 -2.4%
RETAIL SALES SEP 2009 - 1.5 %
UNEMPLOYMENT is still soaring. Millions of unemployed have run out of benefits.

And now you think we will see Three to Four percent growth in this quarter. That is some damn strong hooch you are drinking there podner.

Those are trailing numbers.

Starting this quarter and probably for the next two or three quarters, economic growth is going to surprise to the upside.

Trailing? Yes, but they are the most current numbers with updates to come out in the next few weeks.. There are NO viable data that would indicate that we are in any sort of recovery. I know the news media and all the government reports keep on saying STRONG recovery, but there are no data to support that insane theory. Housing starts are down to one quarter of what they were three years ago. That means a hell of a lot of carpenters and plumbers and electricians are out of work and we know they have run out of benefits if they had any. The Chicago manufacturing report said DEPRESSION as sure as sheet stinks. It is all falling apart regardless of all the government lies.

I wanna drink what you are drinking. I have not been on a good drunk in many a year. What is it that can make you so happy. Now, do not tell me POT. I only want to do what is legal.

 

[Neubarth]

The Republicans de-regulated the financial industry and set this up. Specifically, Phil Gramm was one of the major players in this mess. Time to re-regulate the financial institutions, among other industries.

Old Rocks, neither party had a goal of upsetting the apple cart and creating the present Depression.

Fools in either party did vote for things that assisted the present mess in forming. I'm a registered Democrat, and I do not blame the Republicans per se. It took a whole bunch of fools to screw things up and some of those fools were Democrats and some were Republicans.

The only question is WHO is going to actually straighten the whole mess out?

 

[kwc57]

The Republicans de-regulated the financial industry and set this up. Specifically, Phil Gramm was one of the major players in this mess. Time to re-regulate the financial institutions, among other industries.

I hate to throw a wrench in your misinformed notion. I've worked in the financial industry since 1979 and trying to operate a financial institution with all the heavy regulation is like trying to navigate a mine field. Banks and other financial institutions employ departments of people whose sole function is to track regulatory compliance.

Here is a link I just Googled up that will give you a hint at some of the banking regulation that exists out there today.

BANKING REGULATIONS: REG: A B C D E F H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U X Y Z AA BB CC DD EE

 

[mal]

Retail Sales down 1.5% from already outrageously low numbers.

The collapse continues.

Um... Unemployment Numbers are not going like they were...

700,000+ down in the 200's now...

That's a Trend that's Trackable...

Recessions and Corrections Happen...

This is NOT the End of Western Civilization People.

Buy a Fucking Helmet.



peace...

 

[Toro]

You noted retail sales. If you strip out autos, which were heavily influenced by cash for clunkers, retail sales rose 0.5%. Retail sales less autos and gas rose 0.4%.

Other data this month include pending home sales, which rose 6.4%, personal income rose 0.2%, personal spending rose 1.3%.

ISM services survey was 51. ISM manufacturing was 52.6. These are leading indicators. Both are signaling expansion. Both the Philly Fed and New York Fed surveys are signaling expansion, though slowly. ECRI’s index of leading economic indicators is at an all-time high. Economists are forecasting economic growth of 2.7% for the third quarter.

Productivity growth was 6.6% last quarter. This means that companies have cut too much. At the bottom of recessions, productivity spikes. As companies realize their business is stabilizing, they begin hiring again. That will happen within the next six months. Hiring will not be robust and unemployment will remain high for some time but you will start seeing job additions in the not too distant future.

I also think the risk of a double dip recession is high.

p.s. This ain’t a depression.

 

[mal]

p.s. This ain’t a depression.

^Understatement of the Fucking YEAR!...

I am so Sick of both Sides, the Left Last Fall, and the Right this Year Using that Patently Dishonest Term...

This Country couldn't Handle another Depression...

Fucking Self-Important Children!



peace...

 

[rdean]

I'm more trusting of these guys than of the government:

MAPI Survey Sees Signs Of Manufacturing Rebound

New Jobless Claims Fall, Inflation Remains Muted

Toyota Plant In W.Va. To Produce RAV4 Engines

PC Shipments Rise Ahead Of Holiday Season

 

[Jay Canuck]

"The president certainly remains popular, but his policies are becoming less and less popular. Certainly the stock market hasn’t acted very well since Obama’s inauguration. As the markets continue to falter, Republicans are becoming more confident in their criticisms of the president - some have already taken to using the phrase 'the Obama economy'."
-- House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-), in March Link

But when you look at the facts...

...it appears that line is getting higher and higher, so let's review the facts.

Clinton took the stock market from 3500 to 13,000 or so.
Bush crashed the 13,000 down to about 6600.
Obama brought Bush crash from 6600 to 10,000 as of yesterday - and is he happy?

"You're certainly not talking to the American people, if you’re placing any significance on the 10,000 mark. People aren’t looking at the stock market in terms of putting food on the table. They want jobs, and they want them now."
-- House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-), yesterday, Link
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0309/19621.html
Nope.

"For months and months, conservatives blamed Obama for the slumping stock market. 'Obama, since he’s elected, has tanked the markets,' Hannity said in March. Now that the Dow has rebounded to over 10,000, what are the conservatives saying? On his Fox Whore show today, Neil Cavuto claimed the stock market rebound is evidence of a 'Bush recovery'."
-- Faiz Shakir at Think Progress, Link

 

[Neubarth]

The reality of the last depression was that 50% recoveries abounded but they kept on getting erased all the way to the bottom...

 

[mal]

The reality of the last depression was that 50% recoveries abounded but they kept on getting erased all the way to the bottom...

So you were Predicting this 10K Recovery when?...

You wouldn't happen to have any Quotes of yourself saying, it will go back to 10K and then Shit the Bed Below 5K?...

Cause Using your Chart and Theory, that is what is Coming, Correct?...

Wow.



peace...

 

[Neubarth]

The reality of the last depression was that 50% recoveries abounded but they kept on getting erased all the way to the bottom...

So you were Predicting this 10K Recovery when?...

You wouldn't happen to have any Quotes of yourself saying, it will go back to 10K and then Shit the Bed Below 5K?...

Cause Using your Chart and Theory, that is what is Coming, Correct?...

Wow.



peace...

Indeed I have on the site that I posted to before coming here. I posted the 1929 chart above and told the people that we would probably have a repeat of the same sort of shit. I was doing this in 2007 when I posted as "It's 1929 All OVER Again."

 

[mal]

The reality of the last depression was that 50% recoveries abounded but they kept on getting erased all the way to the bottom...

So you were Predicting this 10K Recovery when?...

You wouldn't happen to have any Quotes of yourself saying, it will go back to 10K and then Shit the Bed Below 5K?...

Cause Using your Chart and Theory, that is what is Coming, Correct?...

Wow.



peace...

Indeed I have on the site that I posted to before coming here. I posted the 1929 chart above and told the people that we would probably have a repeat of the same sort of shit. I was doing this in 2007 when I posted as "It's 1929 All OVER Again."

1929 is like another Dimension Economically...

EVERYTHING about 1929 is Different than 2009...



peace...

 

[Neubarth]

What you say is true to a degree. 1929 was considerably different from 2009.

In 1929 there were a lot of people working on agriculture until they were laid off..
In 2009 there were a lot of people working in Service Sector jobs until they were laid off.
In 1929 there were a lot of factory workers who were laid off..
In 2009 most of the factory jobs have flown to different countries and the factory workers moved to service sector jobs where they were laid off.

In the First Great Depression we had a president who told us mostly the truth in his Fire Side chats.

In this Second Great Depression we have a president who does not tell us the truth at all.

 

[Toro]

The reality of the last depression was that 50% recoveries abounded but they kept on getting erased all the way to the bottom...

You have to understand the Depression and what happened if you believe we will have a repeat of this.

During the Depression, reserves in the banking system fell by a third. There were four waves of bank failures, with as many as 4000 banks going under during that time. People were pulling money out of the banks and literally putting in their mattresses and cookie jars. Money was leaving the real economy and velocity collapsed. In 1931, the Fed raised interest rates from 1.5% to 3.5% to stem the outflow of gold.

Now, think about today. The Fed has flooded the financial system with liquidity. They are doing everything they can to save the financial system. They have cut rates to zero. Thus far, we have had one banking panic. 98 banks have failed, though with hundreds more will also fail. However, 1600 banks failed during the S&L crisis.

That doesn't mean everything is hunky-dory and we are out of the woods. I imagine the economy will move in fits and starts for years, and we could slip back into recession. But this is not a repeat of the Great Depression.

 

[Neubarth]

Toro is right, this is not a repeat of Great Depression. It will be far worse than that. this time we do not have thousands of little banks to fail. We have a few hundred of larger ones to fail, and their failure will not be the issue in the depression that is unfolding.


Yesterday, the Dow soared over they 10,000 mark. If it keeps going at this rate - up 144 points yesterday - it will soon equal the post-'29 bounce. All we need is two more days and we're there.


The Bureau of Labor Statistics does not track pay cuts, but it suggests they are reflected in the steep decline of another statistic: total weekly pay for production workers. That index has fallen for nine consecutive months, an unprecedented string over the 44 years the bureau has calculated weekly pay, capturing the large number of people out of work, those working fewer hours and those whose wages have been cut. The old record was a two-month decline, during the 1981-1982 recession.

The amount of money people are paid has taken a big hit; not just those who have lost their jobs, but those who are still employed.

All over the country incomes are rapidly falling. Officially, about 15 million people have no jobs. (According to my records the number is double that.) Many others have given up looking for jobs. And now, for the first time ever, more than half of those who lose their jobs run out of unemployment benefits before they find another one. Those who do find jobs are usually working for far less pay. That is adding to a tremendous Deflation that we are experiencing at the root level. Many others never get any benefits at all, because their jobs are not eliminated, they are merely cut back...either in the number of hours they can work or in the compensation itself. Ask the California State Workers who are not working three days a month now.

We are in serious trouble and Obama and his minions are not taking action to correct the calamity at hand.

 

[REVxERIK]

it will take awhile.... the GOP had 8 years to fuck it up this bad.

It took inaction by both major political parties to bring on this horrific Depression. No one political party can claim ownership.

some rational thinking for once

 

[The Rabbi]

Toro is right, this is not a repeat of Great Depression. It will be far worse than that. this time we do not have thousands of little banks to fail. We have a few hundred of larger ones to fail, and their failure will not be the issue in the depression that is unfolding.

Didnt JP Morgan just announce enormous earnings this past quarter? That hardly sounds like they are about to fail.
I think we are in a recovery. But it will be weak and jobless, more so than in past recoveries because Obama has made hiring workers uncertain.

 

[Toro]

Toro is right, this is not a repeat of Great Depression. It will be far worse than that. this time we do not have thousands of little banks to fail. We have a few hundred of larger ones to fail, and their failure will not be the issue in the depression that is unfolding.

Didnt JP Morgan just announce enormous earnings this past quarter? That hardly sounds like they are about to fail.
I think we are in a recovery. But it will be weak and jobless, more so than in past recoveries because Obama has made hiring workers uncertain.

The semiconductor companies such as Intel said on their quarterly earnings conference calls that end demand for computers and other electronic devices is picking up.

I agree. I think we are in a recovery, but it is going to be slow and choppy.

 

[Neubarth]

Toro is right, this is not a repeat of Great Depression. It will be far worse than that. this time we do not have thousands of little banks to fail. We have a few hundred of larger ones to fail, and their failure will not be the issue in the depression that is unfolding.

Didnt JP Morgan just announce enormous earnings this past quarter? That hardly sounds like they are about to fail.
I think we are in a recovery. But it will be weak and jobless, more so than in past recoveries because Obama has made hiring workers uncertain.

How quickly the sheeple forget. The Obama administration allows for massive fraud in bank accounting. Remember all of the BIG banks do not have to account for TRILLIONS of bad loans (paper) because that would make them look bad to investors. Can't have that if we want money back into the stock market. Bernanke and Geitner strongly believe that a strong stockmarket rally will heal the present economic crisis. I am not a believer in that smoke and mirrors crappola.

Now, as regards the rest of the shenanigans on accounting during the Obama presidency:

When you borrow money at ZERO interest and finance loans and mortgages at five percent or more, you are bound to make money. When the Fed buys those mortgages without question, you can make even more money. Go ask Morgan/Chase how they are doing on the traditional business elements.

Note, it is easy for the BIG banks to make money when the Fed is giving it away. It is another thing entirely to make money the old fashion way. JP Morgan/Chase did not earn their "earnings"

There is no recovery when all the economic indicators are on the bottom or still falling as is the present case.

Manipulation of GDP by Bernanke/Geitner is not a recovery, even if they manage to get GDP to be positive. All that is is manipulation of numbers to get GDP positive.