The Ukraine Crisis: The Big Picture

[tavlee123]

The current government in Ukraine is tearing the country in half, and a civil war seems imminent. On the side of Kiev you find American and EU(NATO) support. On the east you find Russian support. These two factions have increased in intensity and the end result is becoming clear. We are heading into a war that no one, but the government wants. Kiev is currently being run by a government with no elected power, only martial power. In a recorded call Victoria Nuland, the secretary of state for European and Eurasian affairs, can be heard hand picking the current government head. The party receiving the most American and EU aid is known as the Svoboda party, a party that only four years ago was on the EU's watch list for being Ant-Semitic, Xenophobic, Violent, and unstable. These are the men running Ukraine, unelected. If you are unaware there was a referendum or vote in the east of Ukraine and Crimea. This referendum showed that of the 75% of people who voted, 97% of them voted to become independent of Kiev, and hopefully to be absorbed into Russia. This referendum was declared illegal in the West and was condemned by many white house officials such as John Kerry. why? How is it any less legal then the current government, where thugs under the guise of the "national guard' beat people in the streets and murder protestors like in Odessa? Its not, Common law is on the side of the Eastern Ukrainian people. All of this so called illegal activity is being blamed on its so called instigator, Russia. Lets go back to the beginning of this crisis. The dissention began, not because of Russia, but because of the EU and NATO. An ultimatum was made to Ukraine via a public statement that either Ukraine could join the EU or be tied to Russia, but not both. To join the club, Ukraine had to dump its oldest trading partner with which Ukraine shares Family ties. If I offered you a million dollars to never talk to your mother again, would you take it? This is what we did, and it created a rift. sides were taken, and the riots began. We instigated this crisis, and then when Russia stepped in to aid its old friend, we passed the torch of blame onto them. We drew up sanctions against Russia in an attempt to silence them and get them to back off. This backfired, Russia and China are now in Alliance both militarily and economically, and they are pushing back. We have entered into an economic war, with a nation that holds the largest percentile of our debt. The Dollar is under threat because of what we did, now China and Russia plan on selling goods exclusively in Yen, Rubles, and Gold. This will cripple the Value of the Dollar, leaving us with only three options. Major Economic reforms that under the current powers is impossible, defaulting on our loans which would shatter our economy, or the most dangerous of all, an escalation from economic war to physical war. This last scenario is what the evidence leans towards. NATO and the US have sent warships and carriers to the Balkan and Black seas. The US has deployed several Airborne divisions in neighboring Estonia. Four-hundred Black Water Mercs are currently in Ukraine putting down "rebellion". NATO is trying to encircle Russia by adding Finland and Sweden. lastly we are running military games in Europe and the pacific. Russia and China seem to be preparing as well. Joint military games off the coast of England and France and in the pacific. The most frightening preparation of all is a signed order by Putin to retaliate to any act of aggression with tactical NUCLEAR strikes on NATO sites. We are heading for a war unlike anything the world has seen, but it can be stopped if this message is spread and if the people demand that our government stand down and admit that they made a mistake in Ukraine as well as Syria. Only then can we hope to turn things around. This is not a necessary war, the Soviet Union is long dead, but our government still sees its face in Russia. It wants to finish the job, and wipe out its only major rivals in the world at your expense. The saying goes that history always repeats its self so let me share one story with you from antiquity. The two largest powers in the world much like Russia and the US, were once known as Rome and Carthage. They fought three wars known as the Punic wars. The first two Punic wars parallel the world wars and cold war of modern times. The first was based on the balance of power in the Mediterranean, like that of Europe in WWI. Rome won the war and made Carthage pay through the teeth for it. Years later Hannibal sought revenge, much like the Germans under Hitler. The economy was restored and an Army was raised. He tortured Rome for years, but in the end Rome won by attacking the heart of Carthage. It destroyed the Carthaginian economy, but they were spared annihilation, much like the soviet union after the cold war. forty years later, Carthage became an economic powerhouse, but posed no threat to Rome. Rome needed an excuse, so it used Numidia, Carthage's old client state, much like the relationship between Ukraine and Russia. When Numidia's new Roman supported king encroached on Carthaginian land, after much diplomacy, Carthage defended itself, and there was the excuse to begin the third and final Punic war. Rome thought it would be easy, but Carthage fought with full intent to the death. the war lasted for years, with many Roman and Carthaginian casualties. Eventually Rome entered the City of Carthage and when it did it leveled the city, every brick, every man, all were lain to waste. Rome lost its counterbalance and from there no nation could keep it in check. thus was born the Roman empire. without the Fall of Carthage Rome would have never been the empire it rose to be. We are on the precipice of such an empire, a global empire. The book called "the Grand Chessboard outlines this process and we are following it to the letter. This book has been a governing force in American and European politics since 1977 and by its design the soviet union fell. The power however didn't stay in the west as was intended and now we go to finish the job we began and the only obstacles lie in Eurasia. The excuse we need lies in Ukraine.

 

[waltky]

What it's really all about...

Energy Prices are Big Part of Ukraine Crisis
May 22, 2014 — Russia's decision to intervene in Ukraine has caused a diplomatic and military crisis. But it has also sparked an economic and energy crisis, as Russia sharply increased the price of natural gas it exports to the country and Ukraine's interim leaders have been scrambling to find new and cheaper sources.

Ukraine runs on natural gas, and its energy-inefficient homes and factories use a lot of it. The gas comes from Russia, until recently at a bargain price. But that changed when Ukrainians ousted their pro-Russian president in February. Russia raised the price by 40 percent. Ukraine's new leaders have a dilemma, says energy market expert Pierre Noel of the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies. "They now face the very difficult choice, perhaps the impossible choice, of having to choose between cheap gas and political submission to Russia, or expensive gas as the price to pay for their political independence," he said.

But Noel says Ukraine had been extracting a steep discount from Russia for decades because it is home to the only gas pipeline to Russia's huge market in Western Europe, and that was going to end anyway. Russia and its customers have been working for years to build two new pipelines that will soon bypass Ukraine, eliminating the country's leverage and putting Russia in a position to charge Ukraine a premium. That is bad news for consumers and business owners, like Kyiv restaurateur Yuri Gelfat. "The price of gas will impact all of us," he said. "It affects heating, hot water. Higher utility payments will mean we have to increase our prices." That may be one of the costs of energy independence.

At his nearby clothing store, Ruslan Pavlyuk takes a broader view, calling for increased efficiency and conservation, plus one other thing. "Ukrainians have to stop crying, tighten our belts and understand that we have more fighting to do for our future," he said. Much of the belt tightening will fall on energy-wasteful Ukrainian factories and their workers, largely in the east of the country, where pro-Russian sentiment is the strongest.

Pierre Noel says that will make it difficult for Ukraine to forge a national consensus to make the kind of painful reforms that central European countries have made. "Ukraine is fundamentally split along political and economic lines between a part of the country that may be able and willing to go through that, and a part of the country that simply has no interest, no willingness, and simply will not do it," Noel said. Noel says a political deal that enables the east to remain economically tied to Russia could ease the problem, and give Russia the foothold in Ukraine it appears to want, without further compromising Ukraine's sovereignty.

Energy Prices are Big Part of Ukraine Crisis

See also:

CHINA SIGNS 30-YEAR DEAL FOR RUSSIAN NATURAL GAS
May 21,`14 -- China signed a landmark $400 billion deal Wednesday to buy natural gas from Russia, binding Moscow more closely to Beijing at a time when President Vladimir Putin's relations with the West have deteriorated to the lowest point ever.

China's president also called for an Asian security arrangement that would include Russia and Iran and exclude the United States. The 30-year gas deal, worked out during a two-day visit by Putin to China, gives Moscow an economic boost at a time when Washington and the European Union have imposed sanctions against Russia and Europe has threatened to cut its gas imports to punish the Kremlin over the crisis in Ukraine. The agreement enables Russia to expand the market for its gas, which now goes mostly to Europe. It "opened the door for Russia to enter into Asia's gas market," said Keun-Wook Paik, senior research fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.

Politically, the deal provides "breathing space for Russia," Paik said. "Russia, and Putin, can demonstrate it's not completely isolated because of the Ukraine crisis. Russia has demonstrated that they have a very reliable strategic partnership with China." For China, the world's second-largest economy, the deal will help ease gas shortages and curb its reliance on coal. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry noted that Russia and China have been trying to work out an energy agreement for 10 years and said the deal "isn't a sudden response to what's been going on" in Ukraine. "And if the world benefits as a result of that, that's fine," he said.

Similarly, State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki said of the prospect of closer Russia-China relations: "It is not a surprise to us that countries that are neighbors communicating about how to work together, whether that's through an economic partnership or otherwise." The agreement calls for Russian government-controlled Gazprom to supply state-owned China National Petroleum Corp. with 38 billion cubic meters of gas annually, Gazprom spokesman Sergey Kupriyanov told The Associated Press. That would represent about a quarter of China's current annual gas consumption of nearly 150 billion cubic meters. Gas is due to begin flowing to China as early as 2018.

The contract is worth $400 billion, Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller told Russian news agencies. That is greater than the gross domestic product of South Africa. U.S. Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew had appealed to China during a visit last week to avoid taking steps that might offset the West's sanctions against Russia over its lightning annexation of Crimea in March. However, American officials have acknowledged China's pressing need for energy. The contract is "particularly important" at a time when Europe has threatened to cut gas imports and reduce its dependence on Russia because of the Ukraine crisis, Alexander Lukin, a deputy head of the Russian Diplomatic Academy under the country's Foreign Ministry, was quoted as saying by the RIA Novosti news agency. "We will be able to show to Europe that we have other customers," Lukin said.

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[Landao]