The Rise and Decline of Nations

[pinkwaxfish]

A good book for people who are into politics and policy: The Rise and Decline of Nations by Mancur Olson. In that book, he argues convincingly that there are predictable patterns in a stable society, the most important of which is the rise of interest groups. He shows how, throughout history, stable societies become places where powerful interests collude to make the government work in their favor, and how, eventually, those interests cause the nation to decline.

Here's the sad part. Thus far, in history, once a nation enters the downward portion of its life cycle, there is no getting out of it until a destabilizing event shakes up the powerful interests. For Rome and Great Britain, there was a long, slow, steady decline. For Germany and Japan, there were catastrophic ends for their interests in WW2 and the nations had a rebirth.

I think the US is in rapid, irreversible decline that can only be remedied with some massive shakup event. That can be something catastrophic like the inevitable destruction of the dollar, or something more positive like a truly destabilizing technology (artificial intelligence or something).

 

[waltky]

Granny says, "Dat's right - `cause dem rich folks sellin' our jobs out an' dem Wall St. bankers sellin' homeowners out an' dem politicians sellin' the public out...

Poll: Majority Sees America as Declining Power, Facing Economic Difficulty and Rising Crime Rates
January 2, 2013 - A majority of Americans believe America is a declining power, according to the USA Today/Gallup poll.

Similarly, majorities see rising crime rates and economic difficulty in the coming year, according the poll. A majority of non-Democrats, according to the poll, also now believe America’s best days are behind her, while 50 percent of all Americans (including Democrats) believe that to be the case. The USA Today/Gallup asked: “When you think about the future of the United States, which do you agree with more: the country’s best years are ahead of us or the country’s best years are behind us?”

Of the 1,025 American adults polled from Dec. 14-17, 50 percent said America’s best days are already behind us and 47 percent said they were ahead of us. But the results on this question differed significantly by party affiliation. Seventy-four percent of Republicans said that America’s best days are behind us, while 24 percent said they are ahead of us. Fifty-five percent of Independents said America’s best days are behind us, while 43 percent said they were ahead of us. Among Democrats, 69 percent said America’s best days are ahead of us, while 28 percent said they are behind us.

When asked whether they thought 2013 would be a year of economic prosperity or difficulty, 65 percent of respondents said it would a year of economic difficulty and 33 percent said it would be a year of economic prosperity. Fifty-seven percent said 2013 will be a year when American power declines in the world, while 37 percent said it would be year when American power increases. (Back in 1999, 60 percent said American power would increase and only 33 percent said it would decline.)

Sixty-eight percent said they believe 2013 will be a time of rising crime rates in America. Only 28 percent said they thought it would be a time of falling crime rates. Back in 1999, 54 percent thought crime rates would fall, and 44 percent thought they would rise. Thirteen percent of the Americans polled by Gallup said they thought the federal budget would generally be in balance in 2013. Eighty-five percent said they thought that federal budget would be in deficit in 2013. Neither the Republican Party nor the Democratic Party, nor President Obama nor any leader of Congress has called for a federal budget that is in balance in 2013.

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See also:

'We Dug the Hole of the Deficit Deeper'
January 2, 2013 - Rep. Mick Mulvaney (R.-S.C.) defends his vote against the “fiscal cliff” deal saying, “We didn’t fix the problem last night. We prevented ourselves from going over the fiscal cliff. We dug the hole of the deficit deeper.”

During an appearance on Washington Journal on C-Span Wednesday morning, a viewer asked if Mulvaney could ever vote for a compromise that includes a tax increase on high earners. “I’m willing to take difficult votes”, Mulvaney responded, “I’m willing to do things I never thought that I would do before when you run a campaign - especially your first campaign for Congress – but it has to fix the problem. We didn’t fix the problem last night. We prevented ourselves from going over the fiscal cliff. We dug the hole of the deficit deeper.”

Mulvaney was among the majority of House Republicans in voting against the measure 151- 85. The bill passed the House with a vote of 257 - 167. “I’m a fairly conservative person. Depending on whom you ask - the fifth or sixth most conservative person in the Congress. I voted to raise the debt ceiling last year, something I never thought that I would do when I came to Washington,” Mulvaney said. “I did it because it was part of the thing that we called ‘Cut, Cap and Balance’ that actually fixed the problem, or at least that we believed fixed the problem. I’m willing to take difficult votes."

The "fiscal cliff" deal increases the income tax rate for individuals earning more than $400,000 per year and couples earning more than $450,000 per year. According to the Congressional Budget Office, the legislation adds nearly $4 trillion to federal deficits over the next decade when compared with what would have occurred had all the tax cuts expired.

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