The Return of the Refugees

[Mr.Conley]

It was a stirring sight. A score of buses piled with luggage and decked with Iraqi flags set out from Damascus on November 27th, carrying hundreds of Iraqi refugees for the overnight journey to Baghdad. The Iraqi government, which paid for the convoy, says there will be many more. Improved security in the capital brought about by the “surge” of American troops, it claims, has prompted a mass homecoming of Iraqis who fled the sectarian death-squads that once terrorised the city.

According to the Iraqi Red Crescent, a sister body of the International Red Cross, some 25,000 Iraqis returned from Syria alone between mid-September and the end of last month. Others say the number is closer to 60,000. But this is only a fraction of the more than 2m Iraqis estimated to have fled abroad in the past four years. Moreover, it is unclear whether everyone is returning for the best of reasons.

By virtually every account, Baghdad is much safer than it was a few months ago. Estimates of civilian casualties are incomplete, but one independent tally suggests that the national death toll has dropped by over 50% since the summer, and the capital has seen some of the most dramatic improvements. Baghdadis who a few months ago were hunkered down in their houses say that they are now travelling across town to work and dining out at night. Women have abandoned the heavy robes urged on them by religiously zealous militias for a simple headscarf and jeans. Young men are taking down the makeshift barricades that used to seal off streets from car-bombers or raiders.

But this is not necessarily the reason why Iraqis are returning. Neighbours such as Syria, which originally welcomed Iraqis, have found themselves overwhelmed and are now starting to cut off services. Few of the refugees have been able to find enough work to support themselves in exile. Some have simply run out of money.

Most of the host countries seem unwilling to risk the international opprobrium that would accompany rounding up Iraqis and sending them back to a war zone. Instead, they find other ways to make it unpleasant to stay. According to a report released by Human Rights Watch, a lobby group, desperate Iraqis who have fled from Syria to its more prosperous neighbour, Lebanon, are often caught by the authorities and offered a stark choice: opt for home “voluntarily” or rot in prison indefinitely. Iraqis in Egypt who want to renew valid visas claim they are met by sneering officials who tell them they are not wanted any more and demand extortionate fees to process their papers.

Moreover, the return of the refugees yields its own set of problems. Many will find their homes are now occupied by others. American military officers complain that the Iraqi government is not prepared for this looming crisis. The Red Crescent fears the refugees who return will simply join the ranks of the 2m-plus internally displaced Iraqis it estimates are scattered across the country.

Still, the return of the refugees fits into a general weariness with sectarian hatred. One member of the Mahdi Army, who spent the last year securing his neighbourhood from Sunni insurgents by chasing away any Sunni who might sympathise with them, now says he is contacting his former neighbours and offering them pledges of safety if they return. This fragile goodwill may dissipate, though, if the government does not apply itself to finding homes for its displaced citizens.

An important sign of that the surge is having an effect. For whatever reason for their return, these reverse refugees present a great opportunity and a great risk for the Iraq effort.