The Perfect Tide: Sea Level and the Future of South Florida

[Old Rocks]

An underwater home typically refers to a mortgage that is higher than the property's value. But as rising seas are expected to increasingly flood South Florida, scientists and economists have warned that the term might be taken literally one day.

A new study recently released by Zillow, the online real estate database, has quantified the effect of sea level rise on property values, and the findings are startling: $413 billion worth of properties are at risk of being at least partially submerged in Florida by 2100 — the most of any state, accounting for half of the nation's total projected $882 billion worth of property at risk of being flooded.

"That could even be a low number," says Stephen Tilbrook, an environmental lawyer based in Fort Lauderdale. "We haven't developed an understanding for a lot of impacts of sea level rise yet."

For years, experts have speculated that rising waters will instigate another housing crisis. Of course, the shock of a sea-level-induced market crash will be felt the worst in Florida, where one in eight houses is at risk of being at least partially underwater if sea levels rise six feet by 2100. There has been some discussion about brokers considering the effects of sea level rise before issuing 30-year mortgages and realtors disclosing flood risk to potential buyers.

Sea Level Rise Could Cost Florida $400 Billion in Property Loss

I think that is a far too optimistic estimate of the real estate losses that are going to happen in Florida due to sea level rise. There will be a great many people that will simply walk away from their mortgages, and land that is low, but not flooded at that time will loose most of it's value.

"COULD"

In South Florida, the rate of sea-level rise has tripled over the last decade, according to a new study from the University of Miami.

As Waters Rise, Miami Beach Builds Higher Streets And Political Willpower

Will happen.

Wow. Would you look at that. They used MEDIA REPORTS and INSURANCE CLAIMS to "quantify" their "study". And you claim this is science. Get real...


"To quantify the flood hazard in Miami Beach, the UM Rosenstiel School researchers analyzed tide and rain-gauge records, media reports, insurance claims, and photos of flooding events on Miami Beach and in Miami since 2006. The insurance claims and media reports helped the researchers pinpoint the date and type of flood events."

Didn't you already disqualify yourself from this discussion when you claimed beach erosion was at fault. You are obviously biased on this issue and appear to be just flinging feces at the wall in hope that something will stick. This is a real problem for people in Florida that needs real solutions.

I agree it is a real problem. A problem that has been known about for decades. It is a combination of factors and sea level rise isn't one of them.

So, you say that sea level rise is not a problem, and all the scientists studying it state that it is. Oh, who to believe?

 

[westwall]

And why is that?

Because it isn't. The sea level rise is slowing, and based on some data sets is reversing. The maximum amount of sea level rise measured by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology is negligible to non existent. Yet again real world fact trumps computer derived fiction.


Yearly Data Reports - Australian Baseline Sea Level Monitoring Project

http://www.bom.gov.au/ntc/IDO60202/IDO60202.2005.pdf

 

[westwall]

"COULD"

In South Florida, the rate of sea-level rise has tripled over the last decade, according to a new study from the University of Miami.

As Waters Rise, Miami Beach Builds Higher Streets And Political Willpower

Will happen.

Wow. Would you look at that. They used MEDIA REPORTS and INSURANCE CLAIMS to "quantify" their "study". And you claim this is science. Get real...


"To quantify the flood hazard in Miami Beach, the UM Rosenstiel School researchers analyzed tide and rain-gauge records, media reports, insurance claims, and photos of flooding events on Miami Beach and in Miami since 2006. The insurance claims and media reports helped the researchers pinpoint the date and type of flood events."

Didn't you already disqualify yourself from this discussion when you claimed beach erosion was at fault. You are obviously biased on this issue and appear to be just flinging feces at the wall in hope that something will stick. This is a real problem for people in Florida that needs real solutions.

I agree it is a real problem. A problem that has been known about for decades. It is a combination of factors and sea level rise isn't one of them.

So, you say that sea level rise is not a problem, and all the scientists studying it state that it is. Oh, who to believe?

Probably someone who doesn't profit from the hysteria. Anyone who stands to make money from their "predictions" is by definition a biased source, thus an Appeal to Authority (which you specialize in) is a logic fail of the epic variety.

 

[Crick]

So all of science that has real world applications is untrustworthy. Got it.

 

[Old Rocks]

And why is that?

Because it isn't. The sea level rise is slowing, and based on some data sets is reversing. The maximum amount of sea level rise measured by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology is negligible to non existent. Yet again real world fact trumps computer derived fiction.


Yearly Data Reports - Australian Baseline Sea Level Monitoring Project

http://www.bom.gov.au/ntc/IDO60202/IDO60202.2005.pdf

Sea levels around Darwin, which abuts the warm, shallow Arafura Sea, have risen by about 17 centimetres over the past 20 years. As the CSIRO noted in its last State of the Climate report, the rates of sea-level rise to the north and northwest of Australia have been 7 to 11 millimetres per year, which is two to three times the global average. Along the eastern and southern coasts of Australia, rates of sea-level rise are around the global average.


Sea-level rise rates around Australia, as measured by coastal tide gauges (circles) and satellite observations (contours) from January 1993 to December 2011. CSIRO State of the Climate 2012, CC BY-NC-ND

Seventeen centimetres may not seem much, especially with a 7 to 8 metre daily tidal range. However, raising the underlying base makes a big difference, not just to the ultimate penetration of big tides and storm surges, but also in the everyday hydrodynamic fluxes on beaches, estuaries and floodplains.

A wet warning from Australia's Top End on rising sea levels

Your site is from 2005. This is from 2014. Paints a very different picture.

 

[Shrimpbox]

So what are some things I agree with. First anyone who wants to build on th coastline should not have insurance funded by the taxpayer. Build,if you want, but we are not going to insure you. Most beachfront properties are,second homes or houses for high end rentals. This will stop a lot of development.

Second, as someone who has lived or worked in south Florida for 45 years let me tell you there is a whole lot of land that WAS swamp that should never have been built on, and I suspect a lot of that land is what is flooding now. Developers had free reign to buy off politicians to get whatever kind of permits they wanted in the 70s, 80s, and 90s. While not perfect, that situation has finally changed, but what is happening in a lot of places is that nature is reclaiming what should never have been taken away in the first place.

Lastly I work on the waterfront, granted on the west coast, which does not suffer from the incessant east winds in the fall that push the water up in Miami. There is no change in water levels at the piling. We,still,run aground at low tide. The docks have not been elevated to address rising water levels. In fact the same docks have been in th same place for forty years and the water level looks no different. There is no flatter place in Florida than key west, and she seems about the same as ever. It is telling that at the same latitude you don't hear extreme examples of sea level rise in fort Myers as you do in Miami. Claims of 6, 15, even 30 ft. Rise in sea levels in the next hundred years is just ludicrous, much like the debunked al gore prognostications of past decades. Take it from one who is on the front lines everyday of water levels in Florida , unlike most posting here.

 

[Crick]

I see the South Florida ocean every day for the last 45 years and I firmly believe the sea level rise data out there. Thinking that what you're seeing at your local pier is representative or that you could even see a 3.3 mm/year rise is your failing.

 

[ding]

"COULD"

In South Florida, the rate of sea-level rise has tripled over the last decade, according to a new study from the University of Miami.

As Waters Rise, Miami Beach Builds Higher Streets And Political Willpower

Will happen.

Wow. Would you look at that. They used MEDIA REPORTS and INSURANCE CLAIMS to "quantify" their "study". And you claim this is science. Get real...


"To quantify the flood hazard in Miami Beach, the UM Rosenstiel School researchers analyzed tide and rain-gauge records, media reports, insurance claims, and photos of flooding events on Miami Beach and in Miami since 2006. The insurance claims and media reports helped the researchers pinpoint the date and type of flood events."

Didn't you already disqualify yourself from this discussion when you claimed beach erosion was at fault. You are obviously biased on this issue and appear to be just flinging feces at the wall in hope that something will stick. This is a real problem for people in Florida that needs real solutions.

I agree it is a real problem. A problem that has been known about for decades. It is a combination of factors and sea level rise isn't one of them.

So, you say that sea level rise is not a problem, and all the scientists studying it state that it is. Oh, who to believe?

125,000 years ago the last interglacial cycle - which had a 2.4C higher peak temperature than we do now - had a sea level which is approximately the same as it is now.

 

[westwall]

I see the South Florida ocean every day for the last 45 years and I firmly believe the sea level rise data out there. Thinking that what you're seeing at your local pier is representative or that you could even see a 3.3 mm/year rise is your failing.

Who cares what you believe. The photographic evidence says you're full of crap. Below is a link to historic pictures of Miami Beach. They are quite interesting in light of the nonsense you spew.



Early 1920's - Aerial view of Miami River, Downtown Miami, and Biscayne Bay shoreline by Don Boyd

 

[Old Rocks]

In South Florida, the rate of sea-level rise has tripled over the last decade, according to a new study from the University of Miami.

As Waters Rise, Miami Beach Builds Higher Streets And Political Willpower

Will happen.

Wow. Would you look at that. They used MEDIA REPORTS and INSURANCE CLAIMS to "quantify" their "study". And you claim this is science. Get real...


"To quantify the flood hazard in Miami Beach, the UM Rosenstiel School researchers analyzed tide and rain-gauge records, media reports, insurance claims, and photos of flooding events on Miami Beach and in Miami since 2006. The insurance claims and media reports helped the researchers pinpoint the date and type of flood events."

Didn't you already disqualify yourself from this discussion when you claimed beach erosion was at fault. You are obviously biased on this issue and appear to be just flinging feces at the wall in hope that something will stick. This is a real problem for people in Florida that needs real solutions.

I agree it is a real problem. A problem that has been known about for decades. It is a combination of factors and sea level rise isn't one of them.

So, you say that sea level rise is not a problem, and all the scientists studying it state that it is. Oh, who to believe?

125,000 years ago the last interglacial cycle - which had a 2.4C higher peak temperature than we do now - had a sea level which is approximately the same as it is now.

Now Dingleberry, are you just stupid, or do you lie on purpose? You state that sea level was the same in Eemian as at present. Where do you get that? Everything I find states that it was 3 to 7 meters higher.

Substantial contribution to sea-level rise during the last interglacial from the Greenland ice sheet : Abstract : Nature

Nature 404, 591-594 (6 April 2000) | doi:10.1038/35007053; Received 4 October 1999; Accepted 4 February 2000



Substantial contribution to sea-level rise during the last interglacial from the Greenland ice sheet
Kurt M. Cuffey1 & Shawn J. Marshall2,3

1. Department of Geography, University of California, Berkeley, California 94720-4740 , USA
2. Department of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia V6T 1Z4, Canada
3. Present address: Department of Geography, University of Calgary, ES 356, 2500 University Drive, NW, Calgary, Alberta T2N 1N4, Canada

During the last interglacial period (the Eemian), global sea level was at least three metres, and probably more than five metres, higher than at present1, 2. Complete melting of either the West Antarctic ice sheet or the Greenland ice sheet would today raise sea levels by 6–7 metres. But the high sea levels during the last interglacial period have been proposed to result mainly from disintegration of the West Antarctic ice sheet3, with model studies attributing only 1–2 m of sea-level rise to meltwater from Greenland4, 5. This result was considered consistent with ice core evidence4, although earlier work had suggested a much reduced Greenland ice sheet during the last interglacial period6. Here we reconsider the Eemian evolution of the Greenland ice sheet by combining numerical modelling with insights obtained from recent central Greenland ice-core analyses. Our results suggest that the Greenland ice sheet was considerably smaller and steeper during the Eemian, and plausibly contributed 4–5.5 m to the sea-level highstand during that period. We conclude that the high sea level during the last interglacial period most probably included a large contribution from Greenland meltwater and therefore should not be interpreted as evidence for a significant reduction of the West Antarctic ice sheet.

 

[westwall]

Wow. Would you look at that. They used MEDIA REPORTS and INSURANCE CLAIMS to "quantify" their "study". And you claim this is science. Get real...


"To quantify the flood hazard in Miami Beach, the UM Rosenstiel School researchers analyzed tide and rain-gauge records, media reports, insurance claims, and photos of flooding events on Miami Beach and in Miami since 2006. The insurance claims and media reports helped the researchers pinpoint the date and type of flood events."

Didn't you already disqualify yourself from this discussion when you claimed beach erosion was at fault. You are obviously biased on this issue and appear to be just flinging feces at the wall in hope that something will stick. This is a real problem for people in Florida that needs real solutions.

I agree it is a real problem. A problem that has been known about for decades. It is a combination of factors and sea level rise isn't one of them.

So, you say that sea level rise is not a problem, and all the scientists studying it state that it is. Oh, who to believe?

125,000 years ago the last interglacial cycle - which had a 2.4C higher peak temperature than we do now - had a sea level which is approximately the same as it is now.

Now Dingleberry, are you just stupid, or do you lie on purpose? You state that sea level was the same in Eemian as at present. Where do you get that? Everything I find states that it was 3 to 7 meters higher.

Substantial contribution to sea-level rise during the last interglacial from the Greenland ice sheet : Abstract : Nature

Nature 404, 591-594 (6 April 2000) | doi:10.1038/35007053; Received 4 October 1999; Accepted 4 February 2000



Substantial contribution to sea-level rise during the last interglacial from the Greenland ice sheet
Kurt M. Cuffey1 & Shawn J. Marshall2,3

1. 
   
   
   • Department of Geography, University of California, Berkeley, California 94720-4740 , USA
   • Department of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia V6T 1Z4, Canada
   • Present address: Department of Geography, University of Calgary, ES 356, 2500 University Drive, NW, Calgary, Alberta T2N 1N4, Canada

During the last interglacial period (the Eemian), global sea level was at least three metres, and probably more than five metres, higher than at present1, 2. Complete melting of either the West Antarctic ice sheet or the Greenland ice sheet would today raise sea levels by 6–7 metres. But the high sea levels during the last interglacial period have been proposed to result mainly from disintegration of the West Antarctic ice sheet3, with model studies attributing only 1–2 m of sea-level rise to meltwater from Greenland4, 5. This result was considered consistent with ice core evidence4, although earlier work had suggested a much reduced Greenland ice sheet during the last interglacial period6. Here we reconsider the Eemian evolution of the Greenland ice sheet by combining numerical modelling with insights obtained from recent central Greenland ice-core analyses. Our results suggest that the Greenland ice sheet was considerably smaller and steeper during the Eemian, and plausibly contributed 4–5.5 m to the sea-level highstand during that period. We conclude that the high sea level during the last interglacial period most probably included a large contribution from Greenland meltwater and therefore should not be interpreted as evidence for a significant reduction of the West Antarctic ice sheet.

Whaaaa? The sea level was at least 3 meters higher during the last interglacial? Sooooooo...... I guess that means that this current sea level blather is just that. The blather of ignoramus's.

 

[Old Rocks]

Ice Volume and Sea Level During the Last Interglacial

1. A. Dutton1,2,*,
2. K. Lambeck1,3

+ Author Affiliations

1. ↵*To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: [email protected]

Science 13 Jul 2012:
Vol. 337, Issue 6091, pp. 216-219
DOI: 10.1126/science.1205749

• Article
• Figures & Data
• Info & Metrics
• eLetters
• PDF

You are currently viewing the abstract.

View Full Text

More Melting
The last interglacial period, around 125,000 years ago, was 1° to 2°C warmer than the present, and the sea level was thought to be 4 to 6 meters higher. However, Dutton and Lambeck (p. 216), now suggest that sea level was possibly as much as 10 meters above current levels. Such a large excess of seawater would mean that the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets melted much more than previously assumed, which has implications for how much sea-level rise we should expect with anthropogenic climate warming.

Abstract
During the last interglacial period, ~125,000 years ago, sea level was at least several meters higher than at present, with substantial variability observed for peak sea level at geographically diverse sites. Speculation that the West Antarctic ice sheet collapsed during the last interglacial period has drawn particular interest to understanding climate and ice-sheet dynamics during this time interval. We provide an internally consistent database of coral U-Th ages to assess last interglacial sea-level observations in the context of isostatic modeling and stratigraphic evidence. These data indicate that global (eustatic) sea level peaked 5.5 to 9 meters above present sea level, requiring smaller ice sheets in both Greenland and Antarctica relative to today and indicating strong sea-level sensitivity to small changes in radiative forcing.

Ice Volume and Sea Level During the Last Interglacial | Science

What real scientists have found.

 

[Old Rocks]

I see the South Florida ocean every day for the last 45 years and I firmly believe the sea level rise data out there. Thinking that what you're seeing at your local pier is representative or that you could even see a 3.3 mm/year rise is your failing.

Who cares what you believe. The photographic evidence says you're full of crap. Below is a link to historic pictures of Miami Beach. They are quite interesting in light of the nonsense you spew.



Early 1920's - Aerial view of Miami River, Downtown Miami, and Biscayne Bay shoreline by Don Boyd

Oh gee whizzzarroooo. No time of day on the photo, no indication of whether the tide was in or out. What on earth was that supposed to prove? You state that you are a scientist? Lordy!

 

[Old Rocks]

Didn't you already disqualify yourself from this discussion when you claimed beach erosion was at fault. You are obviously biased on this issue and appear to be just flinging feces at the wall in hope that something will stick. This is a real problem for people in Florida that needs real solutions.

I agree it is a real problem. A problem that has been known about for decades. It is a combination of factors and sea level rise isn't one of them.

So, you say that sea level rise is not a problem, and all the scientists studying it state that it is. Oh, who to believe?

125,000 years ago the last interglacial cycle - which had a 2.4C higher peak temperature than we do now - had a sea level which is approximately the same as it is now.

Now Dingleberry, are you just stupid, or do you lie on purpose? You state that sea level was the same in Eemian as at present. Where do you get that? Everything I find states that it was 3 to 7 meters higher.

Substantial contribution to sea-level rise during the last interglacial from the Greenland ice sheet : Abstract : Nature

Nature 404, 591-594 (6 April 2000) | doi:10.1038/35007053; Received 4 October 1999; Accepted 4 February 2000



Substantial contribution to sea-level rise during the last interglacial from the Greenland ice sheet
Kurt M. Cuffey1 & Shawn J. Marshall2,3

1. 
   
   
   • Department of Geography, University of California, Berkeley, California 94720-4740 , USA
   • Department of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia V6T 1Z4, Canada
   • Present address: Department of Geography, University of Calgary, ES 356, 2500 University Drive, NW, Calgary, Alberta T2N 1N4, Canada

During the last interglacial period (the Eemian), global sea level was at least three metres, and probably more than five metres, higher than at present1, 2. Complete melting of either the West Antarctic ice sheet or the Greenland ice sheet would today raise sea levels by 6–7 metres. But the high sea levels during the last interglacial period have been proposed to result mainly from disintegration of the West Antarctic ice sheet3, with model studies attributing only 1–2 m of sea-level rise to meltwater from Greenland4, 5. This result was considered consistent with ice core evidence4, although earlier work had suggested a much reduced Greenland ice sheet during the last interglacial period6. Here we reconsider the Eemian evolution of the Greenland ice sheet by combining numerical modelling with insights obtained from recent central Greenland ice-core analyses. Our results suggest that the Greenland ice sheet was considerably smaller and steeper during the Eemian, and plausibly contributed 4–5.5 m to the sea-level highstand during that period. We conclude that the high sea level during the last interglacial period most probably included a large contribution from Greenland meltwater and therefore should not be interpreted as evidence for a significant reduction of the West Antarctic ice sheet.

Whaaaa? The sea level was at least 3 meters higher during the last interglacial? Sooooooo...... I guess that means that this current sea level blather is just that. The blather of ignoramus's.

No, by further evidence, it was likely in excess of 6 meters at highstand. And here we go again, you denigrating real scientists, without the slightest reason, other than you insane politics.

 

[Uncensored2008]

The Perfect Tide: Sea Level and the Future of South Florida



Some of the high tide flooding going on in Miami is shocking. It seriously wouldn't need to rise very much more to make this place unlivable.

Florida sunk into the sea in 2000, just as Pope Algore the prevaricator predicted. There IS no Florida to worry about.

I mean you fucking cultists aren't crazy, right?

 

[Crick]

Are you not familiar with the problems Miami-Dade has been having for the last several years with increased sea water flooding?

 

[ding]

Wow. Would you look at that. They used MEDIA REPORTS and INSURANCE CLAIMS to "quantify" their "study". And you claim this is science. Get real...


"To quantify the flood hazard in Miami Beach, the UM Rosenstiel School researchers analyzed tide and rain-gauge records, media reports, insurance claims, and photos of flooding events on Miami Beach and in Miami since 2006. The insurance claims and media reports helped the researchers pinpoint the date and type of flood events."

Didn't you already disqualify yourself from this discussion when you claimed beach erosion was at fault. You are obviously biased on this issue and appear to be just flinging feces at the wall in hope that something will stick. This is a real problem for people in Florida that needs real solutions.

I agree it is a real problem. A problem that has been known about for decades. It is a combination of factors and sea level rise isn't one of them.

So, you say that sea level rise is not a problem, and all the scientists studying it state that it is. Oh, who to believe?

125,000 years ago the last interglacial cycle - which had a 2.4C higher peak temperature than we do now - had a sea level which is approximately the same as it is now.

Now Dingleberry, are you just stupid, or do you lie on purpose? You state that sea level was the same in Eemian as at present. Where do you get that? Everything I find states that it was 3 to 7 meters higher.

Substantial contribution to sea-level rise during the last interglacial from the Greenland ice sheet : Abstract : Nature

Nature 404, 591-594 (6 April 2000) | doi:10.1038/35007053; Received 4 October 1999; Accepted 4 February 2000



Substantial contribution to sea-level rise during the last interglacial from the Greenland ice sheet
Kurt M. Cuffey1 & Shawn J. Marshall2,3

1. 
   
   
   • Department of Geography, University of California, Berkeley, California 94720-4740 , USA
   • Department of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia V6T 1Z4, Canada
   • Present address: Department of Geography, University of Calgary, ES 356, 2500 University Drive, NW, Calgary, Alberta T2N 1N4, Canada

During the last interglacial period (the Eemian), global sea level was at least three metres, and probably more than five metres, higher than at present1, 2. Complete melting of either the West Antarctic ice sheet or the Greenland ice sheet would today raise sea levels by 6–7 metres. But the high sea levels during the last interglacial period have been proposed to result mainly from disintegration of the West Antarctic ice sheet3, with model studies attributing only 1–2 m of sea-level rise to meltwater from Greenland4, 5. This result was considered consistent with ice core evidence4, although earlier work had suggested a much reduced Greenland ice sheet during the last interglacial period6. Here we reconsider the Eemian evolution of the Greenland ice sheet by combining numerical modelling with insights obtained from recent central Greenland ice-core analyses. Our results suggest that the Greenland ice sheet was considerably smaller and steeper during the Eemian, and plausibly contributed 4–5.5 m to the sea-level highstand during that period. We conclude that the high sea level during the last interglacial period most probably included a large contribution from Greenland meltwater and therefore should not be interpreted as evidence for a significant reduction of the West Antarctic ice sheet.

http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v491/n7426/full/nature11593.html

lol, I guess you were told wrong.