Ragnar
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The Forecast for November | The Weekly Standard
Wow, 65 seats? I doubt it. My guess is the over under in the House will be 49 and 5 in the Senate. What about the other big races? ...
That's a big year I don't care how the blame game blows around. And unlike my earlier moderating thoughts, I believe the Governorship wins could actually be higher... maybe 11. (I don't follow the State Senates and Houses so no guess there)
2010 will be a Hell of an election year no matter what though I think the gains predicted above are not all that far off. Time will tell. Things can still get better for the "Dims" before November. Then again, they could get even worse, lol.
The House
Expect Republican gains to be the biggest in the Midwest, with the party doing particularly well in Ohio and Pennsylvania. Also, expect a solid rebound in upstate New York, as well as a potential sweep in New Hampshire, which should quiet the obnoxious Death of Northeastern Republicanism meme. The GOP might even take a House seat in Massachusetts, which would be the partys first in the Bay State since 1994. Gains in the West will be fewer, although look for symbolic pickups in Arizona as voters punish the Democrats for Obamas assault on the states new immigration law. Republicans should also pick up a fair number of southern seats, especially in Florida. However, because the partys southern flank generally held the line against the Democrats in 2006 and 2008, there are fewer potential pickups in the South.
The Betting Line: GOP gain of 57 seats
The Senate
Since popular elections for the Senate were mandated by the 17th Amendment, there has been an unbroken historical pattern: When the House flips, the Senate flips, too. This could be the year that does not happen.
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Still, Republicans have advantages. The party is all but guaranteed to pick up seats in Arkansas, Indiana, and North Dakota. Whats more, a pick up in Pennsylvania looks increasingly likely. The Democratic nominee in Illinois, Alexi Giannoulias, is just as weak as Republican Mark Kirk. Michael Bennet, the incumbent Democrat in Colorado, looks quite vulnerable, as do Barbara Boxer in California, Patty Murray in Washington, and Russ Feingold in Wisconsin. All of these seats are toss-ups at the moment. The Republicans stand a fair chance of winning the open seat in Connecticut, where the Democrats have nominated a surprisingly weak candidate in Attorney General Richard Blumenthal. The GOP also has an opportunity in West Virginia, where the popular Democratic governor Joe Manchin must contend with voters who strongly disapprove of President Obama. Blumenthal and Manchin are both facing rich Republican challengers who can fund their own campaigns. Whats more, in a year when the macro forces are as pro-Republican as they are, seemingly safe Democrats like Ron Wyden of Oregon and Kirsten Gillibrand of New York may end up in jeopardy.
The Senate outlook is extremely hazy. The next four weeks should clarify matters considerably.
The Betting Line: GOP gain of 8 seats
Wow, 65 seats? I doubt it. My guess is the over under in the House will be 49 and 5 in the Senate. What about the other big races? ...
The States
State political battles typically follow the national mood. This year appears to be no exception. Republicans look well positioned to win the governors mansion in Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Oklahoma, and Pennsylvania. Other Democratic-held governor seats are vulnerable: Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Mexico, Oregon, and Wisconsin. Democrats could cut their losses by taking Connecticut, Hawaii, and Minnesota​all of which currently look to be Democratic pick-ups. The Democrats also have good odds of winning toss-up races in California, Florida, Rhode Island, and Vermont.
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In the short run, gains in the states will not influence national politics, but they will aid the Republican partys long-term prospects. Four of the last eight presidents had been governors, and a new crop of state executives will only increase the chances of strong Republican presidential contenders in 2016 and 2020. Victories in state houses are also critical this cycle because of the upcoming House redistricting battle.
The Betting Line: GOP pickups of 9 governorships, 6 state senates, and 9 state houses
That's a big year I don't care how the blame game blows around. And unlike my earlier moderating thoughts, I believe the Governorship wins could actually be higher... maybe 11. (I don't follow the State Senates and Houses so no guess there)
2010 will be a Hell of an election year no matter what though I think the gains predicted above are not all that far off. Time will tell. Things can still get better for the "Dims" before November. Then again, they could get even worse, lol.