The Conservative Presidential Vote

[Toro]

In 2012, more conservatives voted for Mitt Romney than in any other election. Conservatives also comprised more of the voters than in any of at least the past 10 elections.

The first number is the total number of conservatives who voted for the Republican candidate. The second is the conservatives' percentage of the total vote. In 2012, 37 million conservatives voted for Mitt Romney, and conservatives were 35% of the total who voted.

2012 37mm, 35%
2008 34.8mm, 34%
2004 34.9mm, 34%
2000 24.8mm, 29%
1996 23.6mm, 34%
1992 20mm, 30%
1988 24.5mm, 33%
1984 25.1mm, 33%
1980 17.7mm, 28%
1976 17.7mm, 31%

Conservatives have overwhelming voted for the Republican Party over the past 10 elections. The following are the percentages the Republican candidate captured of the conservative vote. Only in 2004 did a Republican candidate capture a greater share of the conservative vote than Romney.

2012 82%
2008 78%
2004 84%
2000 82%
1996 72%
1992 64%
1988 81%
1984 82%
1980 73%
1976 70%

Republicans lose elections when they aren't competitive for the moderate vote. Republicans win when they are within 10% of the Democrats amongst moderates. Republicans have lost every election in the past 10 elections when they weren't within 10% of the Democrats amongst moderates except one, in 1976. The following is the difference between Democrats and Republicans for moderates. In 2012, Romney lost moderates by 15%. In 1988, Bush lost moderates by 2%. Reagan won moderates both times.

2012 15%
2008 21%
2004 9%
2000 8%
1996 24%
1992 17%
1988 2%
1984 -8%
1980 -6%
1976 6%

2012 US Presidential Election

 

[Toro]

Karl Rove must be a poster at USMB.

There’s a hypothesis circulating among Republicans that Mitt Romney lost in 2012 because a large number of previously reliable conservatives who turned out in past elections stayed home. Here’s the problem: It’s not accurate.

First, let’s look at voter turnout. It dropped to 129.2 million in 2012 from 131.5 million in 2008, according to David Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Elections.

But the drop-off was not among conservatives. According to exit polls, self-identified conservatives made up 35% of the 2012 turnout, and 82% of them voted for Mr. Romney. This translates into about 45.2 million conservatives who turned out—roughly 531,000 more than in 2008.

In 2008 conservatives were 34% of the turnout, and 78% voted for John McCain. So Mr. Romney got around 2.2 million more conservative voters than Mr. McCain—and the conservative share of the 2012 electorate was the highest since exit polls began asking voters about their political leanings in 1976.

Here’s another way of looking at the electorate. The number of self-identified conservative voters rose to about 45.2 million in 2012 from 30.6 million in 2000. And the number of conservatives voting for the Republican presidential candidate rose to about 37.1 million in 2012 from 25.1 million in 2000.

Still, Mr. Romney would have needed an estimated 7.7 million additional conservative voters (assuming he took 82% of them) to beat President Obama. But that implies that conservative voters would have constituted nearly 39% of the turnout. This has never happened. ...

But what about white evangelicals, a group that has been an important part of the GOP’s winning presidential coalition and whose turnout did decline in 2012? They made up 26% of turnout in 2012, the same as in 2008 and up from 23% in 2004.

However, because total voter turnout was lower in 2012 than in 2008, there were an estimated 580,000 fewer white evangelical voters, based on David Leip’s Atlas numbers and exit polls. Mr. Romney won 78% of them, compared with Mr. McCain’s 74%. In short, Mr. Romney got around 913,000 more white evangelical votes than did Mr. McCain. ...​

Karl Rove The Myth of the Stay-at-Home Republicans - WSJ

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Juan McCain and Romney weren't moderate enough?

 

[G.T.]

Good information, Toro