One of the impediments to passing an economy-stimulating bill to lower taxes is the CBO's rigid static scoring model for projecting federal revenues. Under this antiquated model, any increase in tax rates increases revenues, while any decrease lowers them. In addition, no offsetting effects on federal expenditures (e.g., changes in the unemployment rate) are included in the calculation of "revenue neutrality" over a 10 year period.
As a result, colossally expensive programs like the ACA were scored as revenue neutral (by balancing 10 years of revenue against five years of costs) whereas tax cuts are always scored as "costs" which must be balanced by offsetting tax increases (despite empirical evidence to the contrary).
One strategy to deal with this paradox is to condition tax cuts on increases in tax revenues. For example, any increase in 2017 tax revenues would trigger a proportionate decrease in 2018 tax rates. This self-fulfilling arrangement could even be accelerated by passing one-time special allowances for repatriating overseas investments and related capital gains.
Constructive comments/analysis?
As a result, colossally expensive programs like the ACA were scored as revenue neutral (by balancing 10 years of revenue against five years of costs) whereas tax cuts are always scored as "costs" which must be balanced by offsetting tax increases (despite empirical evidence to the contrary).
One strategy to deal with this paradox is to condition tax cuts on increases in tax revenues. For example, any increase in 2017 tax revenues would trigger a proportionate decrease in 2018 tax rates. This self-fulfilling arrangement could even be accelerated by passing one-time special allowances for repatriating overseas investments and related capital gains.
Constructive comments/analysis?