Switching from panic to expectations

[Mac1958]

I'm telling advisory clients now that the initial panic of this thing has set into markets, and the next phase will be "expectations".

In other words, we've had our initial freakout, and pretty soon we'll see "analysts" and "experts" making predictions on numbers like GDP, job growth, inflation and the unemployment rate, under our current conditions. The markets will then react to how the numbers look in comparison to those expectations.

So the next primary leg of this, as far as the directions of markets are concerned, will be based on performance vs. expectations, not panic.
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[SweetSue92]

I'm telling advisory clients now that the initial panic of this thing has set into markets, and the next phase will be "expectations".

In other words, we've had our initial freakout, and pretty soon we'll see "analysts" and "experts" making predictions on numbers like GDP, job growth, inflation and the unemployment rate, under our current conditions. The markets will then react to how the numbers look in comparison to those expectations.

So the next primary leg of this, as far as the directions of markets are concerned, will be based on performance vs. expectations, not panic.
.

I think we jumped too fast in shutting things down in some places. The economic destruction spreading much, much faster than the virus.

If I'm right, then we need to jump back as fast as is reasonably safe. And jump all the way back. Maybe as soon as we figure out a cocktail of drugs that's reasonably effective.

A viral pandemic is horrid. So is a crashed economy

 

[JoeB131]

I'm telling advisory clients now that the initial panic of this thing has set into markets, and the next phase will be "expectations".

In other words, we've had our initial freakout, and pretty soon we'll see "analysts" and "experts" making predictions on numbers like GDP, job growth, inflation and the unemployment rate, under our current conditions. The markets will then react to how the numbers look in comparison to those expectations.

So the next primary leg of this, as far as the directions of markets are concerned, will be based on performance vs. expectations, not panic.

Yes, it's fun to watch you guys on Wall Street who got us into YET ANOTHER MESS tell us you have the answers.

 

[JoeB131]

I think we jumped too fast in shutting things down in some places. The economic destruction spreading much, much faster than the virus.

If I'm right, then we need to jump back as fast as is reasonably safe. And jump all the way back. Maybe as soon as we figure out a cocktail of drugs that's reasonably effective.

A viral pandemic is horrid. So is a crashed economy

No problem, Trump has the Space Force all over the problem.

 

[bigrebnc1775]

I'm telling advisory clients now that the initial panic of this thing has set into markets, and the next phase will be "expectations".

In other words, we've had our initial freakout, and pretty soon we'll see "analysts" and "experts" making predictions on numbers like GDP, job growth, inflation and the unemployment rate, under our current conditions. The markets will then react to how the numbers look in comparison to those expectations.

So the next primary leg of this, as far as the directions of markets are concerned, will be based on performance vs. expectations, not panic.
.

Why haven't I panicked? Because I am prepared

 

[JoeB131]

Why haven't I panicked? Because I am prepared

That and you were already crazy before this started.

 

[Mac1958]

To expand a bit on this, "shitty, but less shitty than we expected" could lead to positive stock reaction and/or negative bond reaction.

 

[Cellblock2429]

I'm telling advisory clients now that the initial panic of this thing has set into markets, and the next phase will be "expectations".

In other words, we've had our initial freakout, and pretty soon we'll see "analysts" and "experts" making predictions on numbers like GDP, job growth, inflation and the unemployment rate, under our current conditions. The markets will then react to how the numbers look in comparison to those expectations.

So the next primary leg of this, as far as the directions of markets are concerned, will be based on performance vs. expectations, not panic.
.

I think we jumped too fast in shutting things down in some places. The economic destruction spreading much, much faster than the virus.

If I'm right, then we need to jump back as fast as is reasonably safe. And jump all the way back. Maybe as soon as we figure out a cocktail of drugs that's reasonably effective.

A viral pandemic is horrid. So is a crashed economy

/—-/ It’s all designed to hurt the Trump economy.

 

[Correll]

I'm telling advisory clients now that the initial panic of this thing has set into markets, and the next phase will be "expectations".

In other words, we've had our initial freakout, and pretty soon we'll see "analysts" and "experts" making predictions on numbers like GDP, job growth, inflation and the unemployment rate, under our current conditions. The markets will then react to how the numbers look in comparison to those expectations.

So the next primary leg of this, as far as the directions of markets are concerned, will be based on performance vs. expectations, not panic.
.

I think we jumped too fast in shutting things down in some places. The economic destruction spreading much, much faster than the virus.

If I'm right, then we need to jump back as fast as is reasonably safe. And jump all the way back. Maybe as soon as we figure out a cocktail of drugs that's reasonably effective.

A viral pandemic is horrid. So is a crashed economy

/—-/ It’s all designed to hurt the Trump economy.

If it was not this, it would be something else.

BUT, they might have jumped the mark early. We have nearly 9 months for the economy to bounce back.


I predict that no matter what, AFTER the elections, we will see the last quarters number revised upwards, significantly.


Seems to be a pattern when republicans are running for re-election.

The call to "resist" will be even stronger, with Trump at the helm.

 

[Fueri]

I'm telling advisory clients now that the initial panic of this thing has set into markets, and the next phase will be "expectations".

In other words, we've had our initial freakout, and pretty soon we'll see "analysts" and "experts" making predictions on numbers like GDP, job growth, inflation and the unemployment rate, under our current conditions. The markets will then react to how the numbers look in comparison to those expectations.

So the next primary leg of this, as far as the directions of markets are concerned, will be based on performance vs. expectations, not panic.
.

May be at that point and maybe not.

We may see another wave of panic as testing is ramped up and numbers of cases goes up accordingly.

It's expected, but that doesn't mean it has sunk in. Maybe the market at large will react more in line with expectations than Main St. We'll see....

 

[bigrebnc1775]

Why haven't I panicked? Because I am prepared

That and you were already crazy before this started.

Nope I am just smarter than you.

 

[Mac1958]

I'm telling advisory clients now that the initial panic of this thing has set into markets, and the next phase will be "expectations".

In other words, we've had our initial freakout, and pretty soon we'll see "analysts" and "experts" making predictions on numbers like GDP, job growth, inflation and the unemployment rate, under our current conditions. The markets will then react to how the numbers look in comparison to those expectations.

So the next primary leg of this, as far as the directions of markets are concerned, will be based on performance vs. expectations, not panic.
.

May be at that point and maybe not.

We may see another wave of panic as testing is ramped up and numbers of cases goes up accordingly.

It's expected, but that doesn't mean it has sunk in. Maybe the market at large will react more in line with expectations than Main St. We'll see....

Yes, agreed, I can't say we're there yet, but that does seem like the next step.

Maybe. Possibly...
.

 

[Uncensored2008]

I'm telling advisory clients now that the initial panic of this thing has set into markets, and the next phase will be "expectations".

In other words, we've had our initial freakout, and pretty soon we'll see "analysts" and "experts" making predictions on numbers like GDP, job growth, inflation and the unemployment rate, under our current conditions. The markets will then react to how the numbers look in comparison to those expectations.

So the next primary leg of this, as far as the directions of markets are concerned, will be based on performance vs. expectations, not panic.
.

With Martial law in California and New York, that may be short sighted. Your party is burning the nation down Mac.

 

[Mac1958]

I'm telling advisory clients now that the initial panic of this thing has set into markets, and the next phase will be "expectations".

In other words, we've had our initial freakout, and pretty soon we'll see "analysts" and "experts" making predictions on numbers like GDP, job growth, inflation and the unemployment rate, under our current conditions. The markets will then react to how the numbers look in comparison to those expectations.

So the next primary leg of this, as far as the directions of markets are concerned, will be based on performance vs. expectations, not panic.
.

With Martial law in California and New York, that may be short sighted. Your party is burning the nation down Mac.

I'll let you folks play the partisan politics. I have more important things to think about.
.

 

[Fueri]

I'm telling advisory clients now that the initial panic of this thing has set into markets, and the next phase will be "expectations".

In other words, we've had our initial freakout, and pretty soon we'll see "analysts" and "experts" making predictions on numbers like GDP, job growth, inflation and the unemployment rate, under our current conditions. The markets will then react to how the numbers look in comparison to those expectations.

So the next primary leg of this, as far as the directions of markets are concerned, will be based on performance vs. expectations, not panic.
.

May be at that point and maybe not.

We may see another wave of panic as testing is ramped up and numbers of cases goes up accordingly.

It's expected, but that doesn't mean it has sunk in. Maybe the market at large will react more in line with expectations than Main St. We'll see....

Yes, agreed, I can't say we're there yet, but that does seem like the next step.

Maybe. Possibly...
.

Agreed. Was talking about this with my wife last night.

One more big bump. I hope.

If they start implementing larger shelter in place actions, such as in CA, or they extend this initial 2 week period then we'll see more panic.

Since early on here my main issue with Trump in this situation has been his yapper and the effect on expectations. Had he/they handled the messaging portion better to set expectations it would have helped a lot. They are doing better at this point I think, although the problem now is that, until we really get our arms around a few major issues, it's hard to predict much, making the setting of expectations difficult.

We need to know.

1. How widespread is it.
2. When is it expected to peak in terms of infections.
3. What is the plan for the economy in the context of those expectations.

I agree 100% that once we can set some goals/benchmarks/expectations that going forward the market will react relative to performance on them.

We'll start getting a better idea as testing ramps up IMO. There will be a lot more data to work with at that point.

 

[Mac1958]

I'm telling advisory clients now that the initial panic of this thing has set into markets, and the next phase will be "expectations".

In other words, we've had our initial freakout, and pretty soon we'll see "analysts" and "experts" making predictions on numbers like GDP, job growth, inflation and the unemployment rate, under our current conditions. The markets will then react to how the numbers look in comparison to those expectations.

So the next primary leg of this, as far as the directions of markets are concerned, will be based on performance vs. expectations, not panic.
.

May be at that point and maybe not.

We may see another wave of panic as testing is ramped up and numbers of cases goes up accordingly.

It's expected, but that doesn't mean it has sunk in. Maybe the market at large will react more in line with expectations than Main St. We'll see....

Yes, agreed, I can't say we're there yet, but that does seem like the next step.

Maybe. Possibly...
.

Agreed. Was talking about this with my wife last night.

One more big bump. I hope.

If they start implementing larger shelter in place actions, such as in CA, or they extend this initial 2 week period then we'll see more panic.

Since early on here my main issue with Trump in this situation has been his yapper and the effect on expectations. Had he/they handled the messaging portion better to set expectations it would have helped a lot. They are doing better at this point I think, although the problem now is that, until we really get our arms around a few major issues, it's hard to predict much, making the setting of expectations difficult.

We need to know.

1. How widespread is it.
2. When is expected to peak in terms of infections.
3. What is the plan for the economy in the context of those expectations.

I agree 100% that once we can set some goals/benchmarks/expectations that going forward the market will react relative to performance on them.

We'll start getting a better idea as testing ramps up IMO. There will be a lot more data to work with at that point.

Yeah. In general, the question is how much final damage to the economy is already baked into stock prices. It could be that prices are appropriate for the numbers that are coming, or we could still see another 20% to 30% drop.

Interesting times.
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