Follow along with the video below to see how to install our site as a web app on your home screen.
Note: This feature may not be available in some browsers.
What I want to know is how Obama is going to react when someone informs him he's lost.
I think Florida will be tight there are actually more registered Dem's here then Republicans 08 Obama held Florida but it was tight i think he might take Florida again. Besides everyone here is really irritated with Scott.
If Obama doesn't win, it means Romney CHEATED!!!!!!!
.
If Obama doesn't win, it means Romney CHEATED!!!!!!!
.
Yep that's the default liberal response.......liberals wont understand you're mocking them.....
Let's not forget the Trayvon Martin fiasco.I think Florida will be tight there are actually more registered Dem's here then Republicans 08 Obama held Florida but it was tight i think he might take Florida again. Besides everyone here is really irritated with Scott.
It's a tough call. Florida is a sick state. No offense, but...
My predictions
Colorado -Obama
Florida- Romney
Iowa- Obama
Michigan- Obama
Nevada- Romney
New Hampshire - Romney
North Carolina- Obama
Ohio- Romney
Pennsylvania- Romney
Virginia- Obama
Wisconsin- Romney
There is no way Obama takes FL.It's not that close. Obama will win with 300-320 electoral votes.
If you want to believe that fine the numbers don't support it but whatever.
Actually, they do.
The only thing between Obama getting 300+ electoral votes is Florida. I think he'll win Florida. You're not looking at electoral votes if you think this is that close. You're really not looking at the EVs if you think Romney is in the 300 vote range. The OP's contention that Romney will win MI, PA, and WI is amusing.
There is no way Obama takes FL.If you want to believe that fine the numbers don't support it but whatever.
Actually, they do.
The only thing between Obama getting 300+ electoral votes is Florida. I think he'll win Florida. You're not looking at electoral votes if you think this is that close. You're really not looking at the EVs if you think Romney is in the 300 vote range. The OP's contention that Romney will win MI, PA, and WI is amusing.
NC will be going to Romney.
hope Amynation's right on PA... if so, it don't matter what happens in the Buckeye.
Well let's have a look at some polling data. Now this is just the way I am looking at things. If I was performing a full statistical analysis I would never do what I am about to do (which is toss a lot of polls over my shoulder) but here's how I see it. I will use the following guidelines (and I will be happy to demonstrate the truth of them if anyone really wants to split hairs over it).
a) I will ignore university, media or media affiliated polls. They are heavily biased toward Obama and are way out of line with the average of the professional pollsters. The only exceptions will be Suffolk and Quinnapiac as historically they are the exception to the rule but only when they poll alone.
b) I will ignore polls that were begun before the 23rd. This is because the final debate was on the 22nd so anything before that is only relevant for the purposes of establishing a trend.
c) I will ignore any pollster affiliated with either party for obvious reasons of bias.
d) I will consider that 60% of undecided voters break for the challenger which is roughly the historical average.
Now once you do all that you aren't left with a whole lot but more will come in over time. Let's have a look
Colorado - The only poll meeting the criteria is the Purple Strategies poll of the 25th that shows Obama +1 with 7% uncommitted to either. It's hard to make a good call here because we just don't have other qualifying polls to refute or confirm the data. If you look at the polls prior to the 23rd, you see WAA and Rasmussen average out a 2.5% Romney lead. I find it pretty hard to believe that Obama closed 3.5 points with all the crap that is going on so my gut is that Purple is probably off a bit in Obama's favor. Regardless, if you apply point d above it means Romney would squeak out a very close win. My gut is this one is going to Romney bringing his total to 200 EV vs. Obama's 201.
Florida - I can't believe anyone really thinks Obama will take Florida, but let's look at it anyhow. Among qualifying polls (Gravis and Rasmussen) Romney has a 1.5% lead with 2% undecided. The trends favor Romney. This is Romney's to lose. Romney 229, Obama 201.
Iowa - Gravis is the only qualifying poll and it's 50/46 Obama. Even if Romney got 75% of undecided voters he would still lose. Unless this is an outlier Obama probably takes Iowa. Romney 229, Obama 207.
Michigan - There are no qualifying polls but I don't buy that Michigan is close for a moment. This is Obama's. Romney 229, Obama 223
Nevada - Again Gravis is the only qualifying poll and they have Obama +1 with 1% undecided. My guess is that Obama will probably win Nevada although I don't have a high degree of confidence in that projection. Romney 229, Obama 229
New Hampshire - The only qualifying poll is Rasmussen's R+2 with 2% undecided. I am not terribly confident in this projection either but for now I will give it to Romney. Romney 233, Obama 229
North Carolina - Qualifying polls are Gravis and Rassmussen's average of R+7 with 2% undecided. See notes on Michigan. This is Romney's all the way. Romney 248, Obama 229
Ohio - The big tamale. Qualifying polls are ARG, Gravis, Rasmussen, and Purple that average out to O+1.25 with 4.75 undecided. Applying point d above suggests an absolute dead heat. What I will say is that the trend is toward Romney and the news right not is not good for Obama. My guess is Romney will just barely squeak this out but boy it's gonna be close. Romney 266, Obama 229
Pennsylvania - Rasmussen's O+5 is the only qualifying poll and that seems right about where PA has been for a while. Obama's state. Romney 266, Obama 249
Virginia - Gravis, Rasmussen, and Purple combine for R+0.67 with 4% undecided. Given point d above and the news and trends Romney should win this state in a close one. Romney 279, Obama 249
Wisconsin - Rassmussen is the only qualifying poll and they have it a tie with 2% undecided. Despite that I still can't call this state for Romney. Their history of being reliably blue is so long...I need to see other current polling that supports that data so for now I still have it in Obama's column. Romney 279, Obama 259
And that's the way I see it.
There is no way Obama takes FL.Actually, they do.
The only thing between Obama getting 300+ electoral votes is Florida. I think he'll win Florida. You're not looking at electoral votes if you think this is that close. You're really not looking at the EVs if you think Romney is in the 300 vote range. The OP's contention that Romney will win MI, PA, and WI is amusing.
He won it 4 years ago, with PA, MI, OH, and WI. Yet somehow, you think he won't win any of them this time around--event though the Romney campaign has basically pulled out of PA and WI and has token presence now in WI.
Obama doesn't need FL to win. He needs it to get 300+ unless he sweeps all of the other swing states which won't happen either.
I think he'll win it. Momentum is back on his side and the longer it goes on, the more more the Governor is being exposed for his pander-a-thon.
I'd like to know what you think of Rasmussen and Gravis polls that are conducted in 1 day. I personally think they are more likely to be outliers.
There is no way Obama takes FL.
He won it 4 years ago, with PA, MI, OH, and WI. Yet somehow, you think he won't win any of them this time around--event though the Romney campaign has basically pulled out of PA and WI and has token presence now in WI.
Obama doesn't need FL to win. He needs it to get 300+ unless he sweeps all of the other swing states which won't happen either.
I think he'll win it. Momentum is back on his side and the longer it goes on, the more more the Governor is being exposed for his pander-a-thon.
PA and OH tipping Romney is based solely on living in the area, I could see those going Obama as well.
I haven't seen any major polls that suggest Obama is pulling ahead in FL and WI. Today is not 4 years ago. I think voter turn out will be low on both sides ofthe aisle, and between the walker recall and Obamacare, Obama has lost WI and FL.
There is no way Obama takes FL.If you want to believe that fine the numbers don't support it but whatever.
Actually, they do.
The only thing between Obama getting 300+ electoral votes is Florida. I think he'll win Florida. You're not looking at electoral votes if you think this is that close. You're really not looking at the EVs if you think Romney is in the 300 vote range. The OP's contention that Romney will win MI, PA, and WI is amusing.
I'd like to know what you think of Rasmussen and Gravis polls that are conducted in 1 day. I personally think they are more likely to be outliers.
Polls should be conducted in the shortest time possible. We live in a fast information age and what people think one day can completely change with breaking news on the next. Take the Cincinnati Enquirer poll of Ohio taken from the 18th-23rd. It's totally useless. Debate #3 was on the 22nd, so some of the data is pre-debate and some of it is post-debate. A poll is a snapshot...you want the shortest time frame possible.
As far as outliers....ok an outlier is when you have one poll showing something completely different than all the other polls. Arguing that multiple polls are outliers is a contraditcion as each is supported by other polls.