September is an Ugly Month for the Stock Market; Panic Sell Off Ahead?

JimBowie1958

Old Fogey
Sep 25, 2011
63,590
16,756
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If we dont see some rapid gains to offset this 2200 point sell off in the DOWJI this could shape up to be a disasterous month for stocks.

"At this point, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDEXDJX:.DJI) has dipped below where it was at the end of the 2013 calendar year. That means that nearly two years of gains have already been obliterated....

"On Friday, the Dow was down another 272 points, and it is now down more than 2200 points from the peak of the market back in May.....

"We have already seen the 8th largest and 10th largest single day stock market crashes in all of U.S. history happen within the past few weeks. In fact, it was actually the very first time that we have ever seen the Dow fall by more than 500 points on consecutive trading days.

"On August 25th, I warned that there would be some huge rebound days where we would see lots of “panic buying”, and on August 26th we witnessed the 3rd largest single day stock market increase in all of U.S. history.

"Headlines all over America trumpeted the “fact” that the stock market had “recovered”, but the mainstream media failed to mention that the only two better days for the stock market were right in the middle of the stock market crash of 2008.

"In this article, I explained that this is exactly the type of market behavior that we expect to see during a full-blown market meltdown. There are going to be even more violent swings in the market in the weeks ahead, but the general direction will be down.....

"And this is truly a global phenomenon. Chinese stocks have been crashing horribly, Japanese stocks just had their worst week in over a year, Canada and much of South America are plunging into recession, and Europe is probably in worse shape than everyone else if you look at the fundamentals.

"Even though U.S. stocks have already fallen substantially, the truth is that they easily have much farther to fall. Yale economics professor Robert Shiller believes that we could actually soon see the Dow plunge all the way to 11,000

"If the Dow breaks below 16,000 and stays there for a few days, it is quite likely that full-blown panic will set in.
And once we see the Dow dip below 15,000, people will be going insane."

http://etfdailynews.com/2015/09/08/...-already-plummeted-2200-points-from-the-peak/

Companies tend to inflate their sales numbers during the year to push their stock values up, but when the end of the fiscal year comes in end of September, they have to balance the books for real. This causes a lot of bad umbers to come out around the same time and that drives down the markets in September very often.

Fasten your seat belts folks, it is going to be a hairy ride.
 
"One of the reasons why there is so much attention focused on this fall is that mid September marks the end of the 7-year Shemitah cycle, based off the Jewish calendar. Some see Biblical implications in what’s about to unfold. It’s not our place to weigh in on the religious aspects of market-cycle theories. But regardless of what drives the 7-year cycle, it does seem to exert a significant influence on markets.

"The financial crisis of 2008 hit 7 years ago. Go back another 7 years and the September 11, 2001 terrorist attack happened, followed by a recession and bear market in stocks. In 1994, we had a brief bond market panic. Seven years before that, in 1987, the stock market crashed. And a little over 7 years before that (in January 1980), gold and silver prices peaked."

This 7 cycle theory of the market's behavior is interesting and I have heard it, bleached of its religious references, for quite some time.

I hope it isn't going to be the case.
 
I've heard of this cycle but I haven't seen back testing. I do have back testing on the calendar cycles I am comfortable with and I know the causal factors. Study up on back testing of this system to where you are comfortable using it before going whole hog.
 
I've heard of this cycle but I haven't seen back testing. I do have back testing on the calendar cycles I am comfortable with and I know the causal factors. Study up on back testing of this system to where you are comfortable using it before going whole hog.

But back testing can be flawed. The future is not always indicated by the past.
 
I've heard of this cycle but I haven't seen back testing. I do have back testing on the calendar cycles I am comfortable with and I know the causal factors. Study up on back testing of this system to where you are comfortable using it before going whole hog.

But back testing can be flawed. The future is not always indicated by the past.
That's why you study up to figure out the causality for example the presidential and census cycles are legal requirements and their consequences. "Sell in May and walk away but always remember to buy in again in November." reflects vacation preferences and the school year.
 
I've heard of this cycle but I haven't seen back testing. I do have back testing on the calendar cycles I am comfortable with and I know the causal factors. Study up on back testing of this system to where you are comfortable using it before going whole hog.

But back testing can be flawed. The future is not always indicated by the past.
That's why you study up to figure out the causality for example the presidential and census cycles are legal requirements and their consequences. "Sell in May and walk away but always remember to buy in again in November." reflects vacation preferences and the school year.
Yeah, one glance at Mozzillows charts showing how many homes have sold in what month over the last five years and it is plain that one should be ready to sell by mid April and keep it on the market at least till August and then the cycle shifts to buyers in end of September.
 
MarketWatch is simply the latest place to point out that index mutual funds and ETFs are causing increased volatility since they account for nearly as many big moves as HTF. So when Homebuyers pull money out of index funds it causes stock crashes in September and October, sounds tight to me. Thank you.
 
If we dont see some rapid gains to offset this 2200 point sell off in the DOWJI this could shape up to be a disasterous month for stocks.

"At this point, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDEXDJX:.DJI) has dipped below where it was at the end of the 2013 calendar year. That means that nearly two years of gains have already been obliterated....

"On Friday, the Dow was down another 272 points, and it is now down more than 2200 points from the peak of the market back in May.....

"We have already seen the 8th largest and 10th largest single day stock market crashes in all of U.S. history happen within the past few weeks. In fact, it was actually the very first time that we have ever seen the Dow fall by more than 500 points on consecutive trading days.

"On August 25th, I warned that there would be some huge rebound days where we would see lots of “panic buying”, and on August 26th we witnessed the 3rd largest single day stock market increase in all of U.S. history.

"Headlines all over America trumpeted the “fact” that the stock market had “recovered”, but the mainstream media failed to mention that the only two better days for the stock market were right in the middle of the stock market crash of 2008.

"In this article, I explained that this is exactly the type of market behavior that we expect to see during a full-blown market meltdown. There are going to be even more violent swings in the market in the weeks ahead, but the general direction will be down.....

"And this is truly a global phenomenon. Chinese stocks have been crashing horribly, Japanese stocks just had their worst week in over a year, Canada and much of South America are plunging into recession, and Europe is probably in worse shape than everyone else if you look at the fundamentals.

"Even though U.S. stocks have already fallen substantially, the truth is that they easily have much farther to fall. Yale economics professor Robert Shiller believes that we could actually soon see the Dow plunge all the way to 11,000

"If the Dow breaks below 16,000 and stays there for a few days, it is quite likely that full-blown panic will set in.
And once we see the Dow dip below 15,000, people will be going insane."

http://etfdailynews.com/2015/09/08/...-already-plummeted-2200-points-from-the-peak/

Companies tend to inflate their sales numbers during the year to push their stock values up, but when the end of the fiscal year comes in end of September, they have to balance the books for real. This causes a lot of bad umbers to come out around the same time and that drives down the markets in September very often.

Fasten your seat belts folks, it is going to be a hairy ride.

"We have already seen the 8th largest and 10th largest single day stock market crashes in all of U.S. history happen within the past few weeks.

OMG! What a moronic claim. I can't stand that idiot.
The 8th largest point drop (8/21/2015) was only 3.57%, probably not even in the top 100 largest percentage losses.
 

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