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Seismologists found guilty of manslaughter
18:45 22 October 2012 by Michael Marshall
Seismologists found guilty of manslaughter - environment - 22 October 2012 - New Scientist
We can't predict a fucking earthquake so why throw these men in prison? WTF.
18:45 22 October 2012 by Michael Marshall
Seismologists found guilty of manslaughter - environment - 22 October 2012 - New Scientist
Six seismologists, and a civil protection official, have been sentenced to six years in prison for manslaughter.
They have been convicted of falsely reassuring the residents of the town of L'Aquila that a major earthquake was not going to happen. But the area was struck by a magnitude-6.3 earthquake on 6 April 2009. More than 300 people were killed and thousands were left homeless.
In the light of the verdict, New Scientist takes a look at what happened, and the science of earthquake prediction.
Can we predict earthquakes?
In short, no. Despite decades of research, we do not have a reliable way of predicting when and where an earthquake is going to happen with any accuracy.
That's not to say we don't have any information. Clearly, places like the Pacific Rim are more prone to earthquakes than, say, western Europe. High-risk regions tend to be on the boundaries of continental plates, or near cracks in the plates, known as fault lines.
Seismologists can track the frequency and size of earthquakes in different parts of the world and use the data to make rough statistical forecasts of the likelihood of future quakes (Geophysical Journal International, DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2012.05521.x). This allows regions that are likely to experience a big quake in the next few decades to prepare generally for instance by strengthening buildings.
But the statistical forecasts are vague, and can span decades, says Roger Musson of the British Geological Survey in Edinburgh, UK. A truly useful prediction would be something like: "Next week, there will be an earthquake in Geneva of a magnitude greater than 6.5." That would allow for planned evacuations and other emergency measures. At the moment, nobody can make such precise, timely predictions.
We can't predict a fucking earthquake so why throw these men in prison? WTF.