Scotland: the case for independence

[Vikrant]

The Scottish government has produced a paper putting the economic case for independence.

Titled Scotland's Economy: the case for independence, it says: "By international standards Scotland is a wealthy and productive country. There is no doubt that Scotland has the potential to be a successful independent nation."

The paper concluded that Scotland had "more than enough resources" if it had the powers of independence.

Launching the paper, First Minister Alex Salmond said: "Despite our strong economic foundations and excellent global reputation Scotland, with Westminster in control of our economy, is not reaching our potential as a nation and this report clearly lays out the ways in which UK government economic policies have not worked in Scotland's best interests."

...

BBC News - At-a-glance: Scotland's economy post-independence

 

[Saigon]

Intersting....but given Scotland already has its own parliament and is largely self-governing - does it have anything to gain from full independence?

It certainly has one hell of a lot to lose.

In principle I favour independence for Scotland, but I do think they need to be careful not to gain political independence at the cost of economic stability.

 

[Vikrant]

Scotland can afford to be an independent country:

The Scottish economy performs strongly on key indicators but there is room for improvement, the Scottish government says.

In 2011, Scotland was positioned as the third highest region in the UK - behind London and the south east of England.

Adding a geographical share of Scotland's North Sea output increases Scottish GDP per head from 99% to about 118% of the UK average.

Scotland's share of the UK national debt is lower as a percentage of GDP than the UK's. UK public sector net debt at the end of 2011-12 stood at £1.1 trillion (72% of GDP). Scotland's per capita share would have been equivalent to £92bn (62% of GDP).

Scottish exports (excluding oil and gas) to destinations outside the UK in 2011 totalled £23.9bn. In the same year, a further £45.5bn of goods and services were traded with the rest of the UK.

Key strengths include the food and drink sector (18%), reflecting high demand overseas for Scottish whisky.

BBC News - At-a-glance: Scotland's economy post-independence

 

[Saigon]

Vikrant -

I am sure that is all true, and certainly Scotland is being a centre for energy production, with very strong tidal and wind generation that could be 'exported' to England, but as with Catalonia, it is easier to become wealthy within a wealthy country than it is to remain wealthy as a very small nation.

Should London decide to basically wash its hands of Scotland (inasmuch as that is possible politically or economically) I suspect the good people of Dunfermline and Forfar would be worse off.

 

[Vikrant]

How independence will strengthen economy:

The paper says: "Our ambition is for an economy that is diverse and grows sustainably, with high value jobs that pay decent wages, leading to greater equality of income and wealth and a higher degree of social cohesion."

It adds: "This paper is not intended to be a policy manifesto, but it does set out the evidence that small economies perform well and that independence, within a continuing currency union, would give future Scottish governments the powers to address the imbalances and inequalities that inhibit economic growth."

Currency union
The Scottish government believes that it is in the interests of Scotland, and the rest of the UK, for an independent Scotland to share the pound within a monetary union after independence.

It admits a currency union would provide some constraints on deficit levels and debt levels.

But it does not believe a currency union would "seriously inhibit the policy freedom and flexibility of an independent Scottish government".

It says it would instead ensure and promote overall financial discipline.

Policy levers in an independent Scotland
The lack of policy levers has constrained the ability of Scotland to perform as well as it could have over the past few decades, says the Scottish government.

It provides a list of fiscal levers that could be used to boost growth, address inequality and stabilise the economy.

• Oil and Gas Taxation

• Excise Duty

• Value Added Tax (VAT)

• Air Passenger Duty

• Capital Borrowing

• Welfare and Social Security

• Corporation Tax (base and rate)

• Public Sector Pay/Pensions

• Capital Gains Tax

• Rural and Environmental Taxation

BBC News - At-a-glance: Scotland's economy post-independence

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Saigon,

You are averse to reading an article in its entirety. This is bizarre for someone who claims to be a journalist.

 

[Saigon]

Vikrant -

Yes, Scotland would have greater control over its own taxes....it would also lose the ability to claim its share of the tax take from Westminster.

At times, Scotland has benefited greatly from that, no?

As I said earlier, I understand Scotland and Wales's thinking on this and would possibly back the idea if I were Scottish or Welsh, but as with Catalonia I think they also need to be pragmatic and accept that a smaller economy is both more vulnerable and more volatile.

btw. I read the articles I choose to read - not what you tell me to read.

 

[Vikrant]

^ You need to present facts. So far all you have done is opined, which means nothing.

 

[Saigon]

^ You need to present facts. So far all you have done is opined, which means nothing.

There are no facts on the future of the Scottish economy - only opinions.

My opinion is that the Scottish economy will be more vulnerable to economic fluctuations.

This graph (from your own source)shows what I mean:

Historically, Scotland's growth has been lower than the rest of the UK

 

[Saigon]

I did like this bit - also from your source -

Before the credit crunch, First Minister Alex Salmond put the argument at the heart of his campaigning that small nations were more agile and grew faster, citing the "arc of prosperity" around Scotland; Ireland, Iceland and Norway.

Does Scotland want to become the new Iceland?!

 

[Vikrant]

^ You did not read the article. It specifically mentions that staying within UK inhabits Scotland's growth and stability. It gives detailed facts and reasoning to support that and you come back with that silly graph which is irrelevant to the premise: union with UK is arresting Scottish development.

I am baffled that some news agency would hire you as a journalist. You lack the most basic ability to reason.

I am going to head Skye's suggestion and say good night to you or else we would be going back and forth till cows would come home.

 

[Saigon]

Vikrant -

If I did not read the article - how was I able to quote from it?

It specifically mentions that staying within UK inhabits Scotland's growth and stability

Firstly, the word is "inhibit", not "inhabit" and that is only one point the article makes.

It also makes the points I cited above, doesn't it?

Amazingly enough, there are both positive and negative aspects to any change in Scotland's status.

you come back with that silly graph

From YOUR source.

Try and post with a little honestly and common sense, eh?

 

[Vikrant]

Insomnia!

Saigon,

You are clinging to straw man (my typpo) now. The fact that you are resorting to insults proves that your point is hollow.

You are repeating the same thing again and again.

There are always going to be pros and cons to any given situation but the point of the article is that pros outweighs the cons in this case.

The main article that I posted does not contain that chart. May be one of the supporting links contains that chart. However, that is not the point. I am not disputing the data in the chart. The whole point is that the union with the UK is arresting Scottish development. To support this statement, article provides lots of facts. So far you have provided no fact. The chart you provided falls in the line of the argument: that UK is inhibiting Scottish progress.

 

[Politico]

Not gonna happen.

 

[Vikrant]

^ It is up to Scottish people and UK to decide.