Repeat offenders are the ones doing almost all of the gun crime and murder in the U.S....yet democrats keep letting them out...

[2aguy]

Shocking...just shocking..........yet everyone knows the truth......repeat gun offenders are the ones doing almost all of the shooting in democrat party controlled cities...after the democrats keep letting them out of jail and prison.....

They backed up the legislative pitch with a startling statistical analysis of gun crimes that shows most gun criminals are chronic reoffenders who are committing second and third offenses while released on bail or probation.

The mayors, all Democrats, arrived with the statistics and an array of inner city supporters, including mothers with emotional stories about murdered children.

==========

In Don Kates seminal book Restricting Handguns, the Liberal Skeptics Speak Out, the categorization of the murderer as tiny, highly unusual segment of society was explained in 1976 (p. 106). David Kennedy has been explaining this statistical reality since the 1990s. The concept was used successfully in operation Ceasefire in 1996, and has been duplicated many times.

The success of the Ceasefire type operations depends on maintaining an intense effort of working with the communities to target the tiny minority of violent repeat offenders. Success appears to fade after time dulls the urgency which created the program.
========


This correspondent has written about David Kennedy’s work several times. In 2014, in an article about open carry in Milwaukee. From David Kennedy:

“We now know that homicide and gun violence are overwhelmingly concentrated among serious offenders operating in groups: gangs, drug crews, and the like representing under half of one percent of a city’s population who commit half to three-quarters of all murders.”

=====


A further conflation of “Gun Violence” with gun crime, as used by criminologists, is shown in the Hartford Courant article under discussion:

Hartford data drawn from 345 gun violence incidents between January 2019 and March 2021 shows that 85% of the suspects arrested for gun crimes had been convicted of gun crimes previously.
Last year, of the 44 people arrested in Hartford for murders or attempted murders with guns, 39% had charges pending from other crimes, but had been released from custody after posting bond. Fifteen percent were on probation. Five percent were on parole. Of those arrested last year, 39% had prior convictions for violent felonies or gun crimes.

Mayors Discover Data Surprise: Most "Gun Violence" Involves Repeat Offenders

Connecticut mayors discovered something in the data about violent crimes committed with guns: Most of it is committed by repeat offenders!

www.ammoland.com

 

[Circe]

Sure. It's well known, but a good subject for a thread.

I have a private utopia I've been developing. Two laws only: Don't hurt people, and don't take their stuff. (Words don't count, only actions.)

Anyone caught breaking those laws would be quickly tried and executed. Over $1,000 value, re the stuff.

No prisons. Prisons don't work.

This rule would so quickly catch the minority that commit the vast majority of crimes that it would clean out most of the law and order problem within a few weeks, IMO.

 

[M14 Shooter]

Sure. It's well known, but a good subject for a thread.
I have a private utopia I've been developing. Two laws only: Don't hurt people, and don't take their stuff. (Words don't count, only actions.)
Anyone caught breaking those laws would be quickly tried and executed. Over $1,000 value, re the stuff.''

Under $1000 - publicly flogged?
1 lash for every $10 in value?

 

[Circe]

Under $1000 - publicly flogged?
1 lash for every $10 in value?

I'm still working on that. I'm not into torture, so no flogging. Yeah, I know they used to always do that because only in the last two centuries have there BEEN any prisons (which don't work, as we can clearly see!). Also cutting off ears, but I don't like it ---- hey, it's my Utopia.

I'm thinking lettuce picking. And if they run off or fight or rape other workers, execution then. I guess cotton picking is out, since we have reaping machines for that and so much else now. I WOULD keep count of how much in value thieves steal: if they steal $700 from a store the first time, and then are caught stealing, say, $400 the next time -------------- Uh-oh for him. Same with hurting people that falls below an executable minimum: we'd keep records. Next time he breaks his wife's collarbone, no more hubby.

 

[Anomalism]

I'm still working on that. I'm not into torture, so no flogging. Yeah, I know they used to always do that because only in the last two centuries have there BEEN any prisons (which don't work, as we can clearly see!). Also cutting off ears, but I don't like it ---- hey, it's my Utopia.

I'm thinking lettuce picking. And if they run off or fight or rape other workers, execution then. I guess cotton picking is out, since we have reaping machines for that and so much else now. I WOULD keep count of how much in value thieves steal: if they steal $700 from a store the first time, and then are caught stealing, say, $400 the next time -------------- Uh-oh for him. Same with hurting people that falls below an executable minimum: we'd keep records. Next time he breaks his wife's collarbone, no more hubby.

You would kill somebody for stealing some food or having a bad night and assaulting somebody? You're clearly blind to the extreme nuances of crime and punishment. Even ancient civilizations understood justice is more complicated than that.

 

[Circe]

You would kill somebody for stealing some food or having a bad night and assaulting somebody? You're clearly blind to the extreme nuances of crime and punishment. Even ancient civilizations understood justice is more complicated than that.

Hey, I'm working on it! You want a Utopia that lets everyone go steal freely out of the stores and rob everyone and riot and kill police and mass murder, you can make your own Utopia ----------------- no, wait! That's what we have NOW. Just look around you.

And as for "stealing some food," that's not why all the stores in New York are closing or putting everything behind bars, or why there are flash mobs running into stores in Philadelphia and stealing everything in them. "Stealing some food" indeed!! Do you think THAT is the reason for the high crime surge?? Darn.

And as for someone "having a bad night and assaulting somebody" ------ Hello, this is your answer to my mentioning domestic abuse? That it's fine if "she just won't listen"? I can see what kind of man you are: beat up your woman and children, and never expect anyone to call you to account. In MY Utopia, be sure, you wouldn't survive the week after getting caught for that.

 

[Anomalism]

Hey, I'm working on it! You want a Utopia that lets everyone go steal freely out of the stores and rob everyone and riot and kill police and mass murder, you can make your own Utopia ----------------- no, wait! That's what we have NOW. Just look around you.

And as for "stealing some food," that's not why all the stores in New York are closing or putting everything behind bars, or why there are flash mobs running into stores in Philadelphia and stealing everything in them. "Stealing some food" indeed!! Do you think THAT is the reason for the high crime surge?? Darn.

And as for someone "having a bad night and assaulting somebody" ------ Hello, this is your answer to my mentioning domestic abuse? That it's fine if "she just won't listen"? I can see what kind of man you are: beat up your woman and children, and never expect anyone to call you to account. In MY Utopia, be sure, you wouldn't survive the week after getting caught for that.

It's about severity of response from the law dude. Hitting a woman is bad, but a person shouldn't die for it. You didn't make room for exceptions or nuances. No, they're not all looting a bunch of food, but some thieves do steal necessities. You also incorrectly assumed a bunch of stupid shit about me.

Simply put, reality is not black and white like your proposed legal system. That's why it can't work.

 

[Circe]

Hitting a woman is bad, but a person shouldn't die for it.

Wow, I can sure tell what sex you are.

You know what? Opinions differ on that. Hitting a woman is bad and I think you should die for it, and the sooner the better.

 

[Orangecat]

Wow, I can sure tell what sex you are.

You know what? Opinions differ on that. Hitting a woman is bad and I think you should die for it, and the sooner the better.

Just to play devil's advocate: Would the same punishment apply to a woman who hits a man?

 

[Circe]

Why not, since it's a vanishingly rare event -------

Besides, the rules of my Utopia would be well publicized. Women are too smart to get caught by that. Men, on the other hand ------- we could get rid of a lot of the bad guys pretty quickly and the smarter ones might learn something.

 

[2aguy]

More on this topic....

The lack of a clear causal link between lawful gun ownership and violent crime rates is unsurprising, given that lawful gun owners have never been the primary facilitators of gun crime. Of course, in any given year, a small number of lawful gun owners will commit crimes with their firearms, but the overwhelming majority of America’s tens of millions of gun owners will never constitute a danger to themselves or others.

On the contrary, the best available evidence suggests that a small number of serial offenders commit the majority of violent crimes, and that many of these serial offenders are already legally prohibited from possessing the firearms they use to perpetrate their crimes.13


Consider, for example, a recent report analyzing gun violence in Washington, DC, which concluded that 60 percent to 70 percent of all gun violence in the nation’s capital in any given year is tightly concentrated in a group of 500 “very high risk” individuals, almost all of whom have significant prior or ongoing interactions with the District’s criminal justice system.14

Almost half of all homicide suspects in DC have been previously incarcerated, while more than one in four were on active probation or parole supervision.15
Id. at 4.

According to the report, “most victims and suspects with prior criminal offenses had been arrested about 11 times for about 13 different offenses by the time of the homicide” in which they were involved—not including juvenile arrests.16
Id. 4–5.
-----------
An analysis of more than 2,200 individuals arrested for shootings in Philadelphia since 2015 produced similar results: Forty percent of suspects had a prior felony conviction, 52 percent had a prior felony charge, and 76 percent had at least one prior arrest.17

One in five of the suspects had a pending court case at the time of his or her arrest for a shooting.18


The same is true of recent analyses of homicide and shooting suspects in Indianapolis,19



In other words, the trend holds true across the nation, irrespective of an array of factors like geography, demographics, and politics—the bulk of criminal gun violence falls on the shoulders of a small and predictable subset of the population who could not have been in lawful possession of any of the firearms they used to commit their crimes.

Answering Policymakers’ Most Common Questions (And Debunking Their Most Common Misconceptions) About Gun Policy

This Legal Memorandum addresses many of the questions that have been posed to the author during and following congressional testimony regarding gun ownership. Many of these questions, and the statements that accompany them, reflect and repeat common talking points that are actually...

www.heritage.org