candycorn
Diamond Member
The odd thing about Rasmussen is this:
In 2008, Rasmussen got the election pretty close; they had Obama by 6 in their final poll, Obama won by 7.3.
Many people have cited that as the reason Rasmussen is reliable.
BUT:
In 2008, if you go back through the fall and summer, Rasmussen was in line the whole time with the other polls. Rasmussen was close to the average all that time.
NOW, however, in 2012, Rasmussen has been consistently well off the average, to the Romney side, for months. In sharp contrast to 2008.
Why????
It's very simple. Rasmussen samples using ONLY a likely voter screen, and it bases its sample on its own (very accurate) poll of party identification- in other words- they use the most up to date numbers. The other pollsters are using the 2008 party identification figures- numbers that skew the polls by D+7 or higher. Marquette University conducted a poll recently that used a D+11!! Reality will be a bitch come Nov 6th...
Yes it was.