POLL: Romney Now Up In Virginia...

Discussion in 'Election Forums' started by paulitician, Oct 26, 2012.

  1. paulitician
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    paulitician Platinum Member Supporting Member

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    The race for the White House has tightened in Virginia, where Mitt Romney is now preferred over Barack Obama by two percentage points -- 47-45 percent. That’s according to a Fox News poll of Virginia likely voters released Thursday. Romney’s edge is within the poll’s margin of sampling error.

    The poll shows a nine-point shift in the margin and a four-point increase in support for Romney. A month ago, Obama topped Romney by seven points in this battleground state (50-43 percent).

    The president has also lost ground in the state on his job performance and favorable rating.

    In 2008, Obama won 52 percent of the vote in Virginia and was the first Democratic presidential candidate to win the state since 1964.

    The biggest shift since September is among independents. They now prefer Romney by 53-31 percent. Last month they were split 43-43 percent.

    The race is tight despite Romney’s wide advantage among independents because the poll finds by a five-point margin more voters identify themselves as Democrats -- and almost all of them back their party’s nominee. In the 2008 presidential election, the Fox News exit poll found a six-point advantage in party identification for Democrats...

    Fox News poll: Romney up by two points in Virginia | Fox News
     
    Last edited: Oct 26, 2012
  2. Liability
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    Liability Locked Account. Supporting Member

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    Look at the RCP present map. For our purposes, right or wrong, let's accept it at face value for our point of departure:

    RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Obama vs. Romney Create Your Own Electoral Map

    That "map" shows 201 / 191 in the Electoral Vote now, favoring Pres. Obama.

    NOW, let's quickly ADD to the Romney totals, FL, NC and VA.

    NOW, the total suddenly favor Mitt 248 to 201. But it doesn't yet seal the deal.

    So, let's consider it likely that Mitt takes CO. 257 for Mitt. 12 more to tie (which is presumably a Mitt win) and 13 to win outright. Pick a couple of prospects.

    Let's assume (for now) that Pres. Obama can hold PA. That's 221 for the President and still 257 for Mitt.

    As paulitician has noted, if Mitt takes EITHER (or both) Ohio or Michigan, it's done. Mitt will win.

    I think he takes OH, MI and WI. He's at 301. I would hazard the guess that NV is going to return to more sensible roots and go to the GOP. That's Mitt at 307.

    Forget Iowa and NH for the moment.

    Given the momentum in Mitt's favor after the absolutely atrocious performance by the incumbent in Debate #1, I believe the prospects for Mitt are superior to those for the incumbent.
     
  3. Matthew
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    Matthew Blue dog all the way!

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    Good! Now he needs to get in the lead in Ohio, Mich, Pa, Co, Nev...
     
  4. beretta304
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    beretta304 BANNED

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    The fact that the RCP swung almost overnight from Romney up by 10 to now being down is the final nail in the coffin at least for me, in believing any poll.

    That's what is at stake this election as well. Aside fromm the issues, the credibility of polling and news outlets is in the limelight.

    Romney's up, Obama's Up, Romney's Up, Obama's Up...it's all a crock of shit.


    At best they're tied. At worst, Obama is up...
     
    Last edited: Oct 26, 2012
  5. Liability
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    Liability Locked Account. Supporting Member

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    Shock of the Century Poll!

    Mitt leading in New York!
     
  6. Liability
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    Liability Locked Account. Supporting Member

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    Nah.
     
  7. SniperFire
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    SniperFire Senior Member

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    Wisconsin is a dead heat now.

    WI: O 49% R 49%... DEVELOPING...


    Undecideds break to the challenger.
     

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