Toddsterpatriot
Diamond Member
No, sales rates exceed occupancy rates by so much that doors and plumbing fixtures are installed by the buyers, if and, when they move in. That in turn means that appliances cannot be moved in without inviting theft and trim and cabinetry should not be installed for fear of vandalism. There were reports of sold out properties with less than 1% occupancy. That was more or less confirmed by a famous case a few years back in which a rather large building with more than 100 units collapsed and one woman died. The building collapse was in full view of an office building housing the office of a non-Chinese news service which is how I heard about it.I checked the loan/mortgage interest rates in China and they are basically the same as the US. So the overnight rate being the 'bank to bank' rate must mean there has been a huge run on Chinese banks and they don't have much money to lend. That doesn't sound good at all.
In absolute terms the Chinese housing bubble is about 20 times bigger than the US housing bubble was.
Don't you mean in relative terms?
I have no idea why or how this is going on. but youtube has worlds without end videos about the ghost buildings, developments and cities if you want to run the numbers yourself.
How big was the US housing bubble?
Really good question in as much as Erik Estrada was still working out leftovers from the S&L bubble tight up to the start of the meltdown. The theoretical value of non-performing debts is useless since the banks are state owned as are many firms. However China has @ 20 times more sold but unused housing, industrial, office and other real estate units than the US has ever had. Since that is the most conservative number I am aware of that is the one I used. Faber, Gordon Chang and other analysts use higher numbers. The BIS for example estimates that annual capital flight from China has reached at least 7% of GDP ($780 billion for 2015) or a trillion four in US equivalent. So, 20X the size of the Meltdown is low ball.
At its peak, in 2006, according to the Fed's, Balance Sheet of Households and Nonprofit Organizations, our real estate assets were worth $24.8394 trillion. That dipped to a low of $18.3193 trillion in 2011.
I guess you could call that a bubble of $6.5 trillion.
What is the equivalent bubble in China? Probably a lot less.
Certainly not 20 times bigger, in absolute terms.