Ornstein thinks that the RNC '16 in Cleveland may be like 1964 or 1968

[Statistikhengst]

I'm not so sure I would agree with him, but it is still an interesting and somewhat thought-provoking read:

Maybe Donald Trump Is Making History

He points out to some historical details that are absolutely correct, for instance:

Of course, this phenomenon is not new in 2015. It was there in 1964, building over decades in which insurgent conservative forces led by Robert Taft were repeatedly thwarted by moderates like Tom Dewey and Wendell Wilkie, until they prevailed behind the banner of Barry Goldwater. It was present in 1976, when insurgent conservative Ronald Reagan almost knocked off Gerald Ford before prevailing in 1980 (and then governing more as a pragmatist than an ideologue). It built to 1994, when Newt Gingrich led a huge class of insurgents to victory in mid-term elections, but then they had to accept pragmatist-establishment leader Bob Dole as their presidential candidate in 1996. And while John McCain in 2008 and Mitt Romney in 2012 were establishment figures, each had to veer sharply to the radical right side to win nominations; McCain, facing a possible revolt at his nominating convention if he went with his first choice for running mate, Joe Lieberman, instead bowed to the new right and picked Sarah Palin.

Historically very correct, especially the part about Robert Taft and the hard pitched battle between the ultra-Right and the moderate wings of the GOP in the late 30s through the early 60s.

But he also makes a statement here that one can argue for or against:

I have seen the Republican Party go from being a center-right party, with a solid minority of true centrists, to a right-right party, with a dwindling share of center-rightists, to a right-radical party, with no centrists in the House and a handful in the Senate. There is a party center that two decades ago would have been considered the bedrock right, and a new right that is off the old charts. And I have seen a GOP Congress in which the establishment, itself very conservative, has lost the battle to co-opt the Tea Party radicals, and itself has been largely co-opted or, at minimum, cowed by them.


As the congressional party has transformed, so has the activist component of the party outside Washington. In state legislatures, state party apparatuses, and state party platforms, there are regular statements or positions that make the most extreme lawmakers in Washington seem mild.

The jist of the write-up is that he thinks the 2016 Republican National Convention could end up being very tumultuous. I'm not so sure anymore, but it's still an interesting read. Enjoy.

 

[defcon4]

Thanks Stat. It is Friday night..being out of country for a while you forgot what that means… a night out.. weekend eve. Not too many will read. Great info, thanks.