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...Well, here's another reality for you, Mr Kerry. Even if you are elected in November, and even if the European leaders do fawn over you in a way not seen since the days of JFK, I don't expect much in the way of burden-sharing, least of all from the French. Sure, with you in the White House, Jacques Chirac and Gerhard Schroder would spout all sorts of fine words about restoring transatlantic harmony. But I would be quite astonished if practical support, whether in the form of money or men, were to be forthcoming.
True, the recent transatlantic estrangement is more complex than Kagan suggested. First, European governments were not united in opposing the war against Saddam; a majority in fact signed letters supporting the American policy of military action. Secondly, American voters were not united in supporting the war. Opinion polls last year revealed that it is only Republicans who are "from Mars"; Democrats are as "Venusian" as Europeans in their reluctance to wage war.
That said, I still don't buy the idea that a Kerry presidency could bring about a real rapprochement. Let's just revisit Mr Kerry's childhood memories for a second. Where exactly were those British, French and American troops that he enjoyed watching as a boy? Why, in Berlin, "each of them guarding their own part of the city, and Russians standing guard on the stark line separating East from West".
And that, in a nutshell, is why there was a transatlantic alliance in the 1950s. Let's not kid ourselves that the French and the Germans or, for that matter, we British were passionately pro-American during the Cold War. On the contrary, American experts constantly fretted about the levels of popular anti-Americanism in Europe. But as long as there was the Soviet Union menacing us with its array of missiles, troops and spooks, there was one overwhelming practical argument for the unity of "the West".
That ceased to be the case 15 years ago, when the reforms of Mikhail Gorbachev caused the Soviet empire to crumble. Ever since 1989, the incentives for transatlantic harmony have grown steadily weaker, even as the incentives for greater European autonomy have appeared to strengthen.
In a recent Gallup poll, 61 per cent of Europeans said they thought the EU plays a positive role with regard to "peace in the world"; just eight per cent said its role was negative. But a remarkable 50 per cent of those polled took the view that America now plays a negative role.
John Kerry is leading Americans to expect a turnaround in relations between America and its allies if they elect him on November 2 a turnaround that he says will help materially to reduce America's commitments in Iraq. The reality is that the good old days of transatlantic amity are, like the divided Berlin of his youth, long gone.
So while Kerry's childhood memories may serve to endear him to American voters, they are no basis for a new American foreign policy.
Niall Ferguson is Professor of History at Harvard University
