Oil discoveries dispel "Peak Oil" as myth

Discussion in 'Energy' started by mdn2000, Nov 17, 2010.

  1. evenflow1969
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    evenflow1969 Gold Member

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    Aliens is a neat idea, but natural pocsesses is how it got there!
     
  2. watchingfromafar
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    watchingfromafar VIP Member

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    I looked at one of your articles & I actually read it instead of just cut and paste the link. In your link it actually states---

    "Hubbert projected that the global peak in crude oil production would occur around the year 2000 at 34 million bpd . In reality, crude oil production in 2000 was more than twice as high at about 75 million bpd. Further, while conventional crude oil production did flatten around 2005, more than a decade later there is no evidence that it has begun to decline. (Overall global production has continued to grow, primarily because of the rise of shale oil production). So this was a big miss.

    Hubbert’s defenders will argue that he only really missed the date of the conventional crude oil peak by 5 years. But, his methodology specifies a peak and decline. That is not what we have seen. In fact, until conventional crude begins to decline in earnest we really don’t know how far off the mark his peak 2000 prediction may be."

    Peak oil is down played because we are pumping out more and more each year while this is not an indication of over supply, Oil is "finite" and anyone who tells you otherwise is just wrong.

    Peak oil curve--------------------

    PEEK OIL.jpg
     
    Last edited: Aug 15, 2018
  3. watchingfromafar
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    watchingfromafar VIP Member

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    Oil/gas are finite and I will not live long enough to see its end so I am no longer going to debate this. I have better things to do with the time I have left.

    I wish all of you a great day and beyond.
    bye
     
  4. Sunsettommy
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    Sunsettommy VIP Member Supporting Member

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    You also wrote this silliness:

    "Peak oil is down played because we are pumping out more and more each year while this is not an indication of over supply, Oil is "finite" and anyone who tells you otherwise is just wrong.

    Peak oil curve--------------------"

    No because Peak oil believers have been WRONG for well over 100 years now, which is why they are being mocked for their latest obvious false claims, to which you make clear of your ignorance on this.

    Here is what YOU left out that exposes your dishonesty: The article is from 2015, the ones I posted are much more recent with developments not even known in 2015.

    "Peak Oil date

    Looking back at Hubbert’s Peak in Figure 2, it is striking just how accurate Hubbert was for 50 years, and equally striking that after 50 years of impressive accuracy, it went badly wrong (see the production surge from 2007 in Figure 4). So – what happened, and are there good lessons to be learned?

    If you read Hubbert’s paper [5], you will note that he bases his estimates on very few numbers. The most important number was the total amount of oil. For the graph in Figure 2, total oil in the USA was put at 200 billion barrels (“Bbbl”). Hubbert didn’t actually know what the correct number was, so he estimated for 150 Bbbl and for 200 Bbbl. The graph for 200 Bbbl proved remarkably accurate.

    Where Hubbert went wrong (50 years later) was that he did not make proper allowance for the “unconventional” oil, even though he knew of its existence. The combination of technological advance and high oil prices resulted in a massive surge in USA production of “unconventional” oil from around 2007. There was therefore a major departure from Hubbert’s predictions for the USA (Figure 4).

    Put simply, all we have to do in order to correct Hubbert’s predictions for the surge in “unconventional” oil is to update the figure for total oil TR. The other principal figures Hubbert used were current production rate and rate of demand growth, and of course new values for those should be used too.

    Hubbert put initial global TR (today’s TR plus all past production) at 1,250 Bbbl, and predicted global Peak Oil in 2010, based on the theory that Peak Oil occurs when about half of the TR has been produced. 2013 production rate was around 32 Bbbl per year, so using Hubbert’s theory and our new figure for TR, we can do a rough calculation on an “all other things being equal” basis, of when Peak Oil will occur (see spreadsheet [16]):

    If global initial TR was 5,000 Bbbl and future production growth rate is 3% pa, then Peak Oil occurs around 2036. At lower growth rates (2%, 1%) the date is only slightly later (2038, 2041). The truly fascinating aspect of these figures is that a quadrupling of initial TR from 1,250 to 5,000 Bbbl only adds about 30 years to the likely Peak Oil date.

    Over the last few decades, oil production has grown at around 1.3% pa [2] on average. In spite of the recent surge in USA “unconventional” oil production, global oil production has slowed a bit in recent years to about 1.1% pa. With USA shale/tight oil production expected to decline from 2020 [17], it may be difficult to maintain a positive global production growth rate from then on. Peak Oil is when the global growth rate hits zero."
     
  5. Sunsettommy
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    Sunsettommy VIP Member Supporting Member

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    Where to start?

    Peak oil is real and irrelevant. Oil is a finite commodity. In general, global production will follow a logistic function. The ultimate peak production rate will occur sometime around when we’ve recovered half of the recoverable resource. The total recoverable resource is unknown, but very fracking YUGE. Much YUGER than Hubbert thought it was.

    Here’s how Peak Oil works: As of the end of 2014, total US cumulative production was 212 Bbbl, proved reserves were 40 Bbbl and the estimated total undiscovered recoverable resource was 130 Bbbl. If that was the sum total of the estimated ultimate recovery (EUR), then US Peak Oil occurred in 2004…

    [​IMG]

    This doesn’t mean that the production rate literally peaked in 2004. It means that a hundred years from now, if you fit a logistic function to the data, the peak would be around 2004. However, proved reserves are a moving target because they only represent a fraction of the oil that is likely to be produced from existing fields. “Reserves” has a very specific legal definition. In the US, “reserves” generally means proved reserves (1P). In less regulated nations, “reserves” often includes probable (2P) and/or possible (3P) reserves. Most of the “off limits” areas would fall under “prospective resources”…

    [​IMG]

    In the US. “proved reserves” are the 1P number. This is the minimum volume of oil expected to be produced from a reservoir (>90% probability). Proved reserves go up all of the time without additional drilling because well performance converts 2P (50% probability) and some 3P (>10% probability) into 1P. Changing economic conditions can also move contingent resources into the 1P category.

    As long as proved reserves and undiscovered resource potential remain steady or rise, each barrel of oil produced pushes Peak Oil further off into the future.

    Most reserve additions don’t come from new discoveries. They come from reservoir management and field development operations.

    [​IMG]

    New discoveries are the brown curve at the bottom of the chart.

    Recently Bloomberg put out a bar chart showing how the size of new oil discoveries has steadily shrunk over the past 70 years. Here’s that bar chart at the same scale as global crude oil production and reserve growth.

    [​IMG]

    There’s an old saying in the oil patch: “Big fields get bigger.” The biggest field in the world, Saudi Arabia’s Ghawar oil field was discovered in 1948. When first discovered, the estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) was in the neighborhood of 60 Bbbl. It has produced over 65 Bbbl and it is estimated to have about 70 Bbbl remaining (EUR ~130 Bbbl). Half of Ghawar’s EUR was recognized at its discovery. Half of it, or more, will be the result of field development and reservoir management.

    [​IMG]

    Oil production of Saudi Arabia (total) and the Ghawar field and the percentage of water cut in Ghawar 1993-2003. Ghawar production accounts for over half of annual Saudi crude. Water cut is the ratio of water to total liquids production from an oil field; in water-driven mature reservoirs water cut can reach up to 80-90 %. (Modified after A.M. Afifi, 2004 AAPG Distinguished Lecture; total oil production from BP Statistical Review of World Energy)

    The King of Giant Fields.

    People will often babble about conventional vs unconventional oil… This simply demonstrates an ignorance of the use of the word unconventional. Oil produced from shale is conventional oil. The boom in US oil production is due to oil produced from shale. The oil is conventional. The extraction process (massive frac jobs on horizontal wells in shale formations) is what’s unconventional.

    “Oil shales” are unconventional oil, solid kerogen… This has not played a role in the boom in US oil production. If it ever becomes economically feasible to tap the unconventional oil of the Green River formation, Peak Oil will be put off “to infinity and beyond”…

    And… There is no evidence whatsoever that crude oil is produced in the mantle from inorganic material… And it wouldn’t matter if it was."

    LONG COMMENT By David Middelton
     
  6. watchingfromafar
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    watchingfromafar VIP Member

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    PEAK OIL

    Oil production forecasts on which predictions of peak oil are based are sometimes made within a range which includes optimistic (higher production) and pessimistic (lower production) scenarios. A 2013 study concluded that peak oil “appears probable before 2030,” and that there was a “significant risk” that it would occur before 2020,[4] and assumed that major investments in alternatives will occur before a crisis, without requiring major changes in the lifestyle of heavily oil-consuming nations. Pessimistic predictions of future oil production made after 2007 state either that the peak has already occurred,[5][6][7][8] that oil production is on the cusp of the peak, or that it will occur soon.[9][10]

    Peak oil - Wikipedia

    Oil production

    World oil production rose by only 0.6 million b/d in 2017, below average for the second consecutive year

    Production fell in the Middle East (-250,000 b/d) and South & Central America (-240,000 Kb/d) but this was outweighed by growth from North America (820,000 b/d) and Africa (390,000 b/d).

    Oil production | Oil | Statistical Review of World Energy | Energy economics | BP


    Folks, I am not a dooms day person that has lost all hope and just want you to fear the future too. I am an optimist just like others here but I am not relying on God to save us. If He wanted to save us He would not have allowed wars or the invention of the gun or hydrogen bomb. Instead He gave us the right to choose our own future and I am confident mankind will make the right choices when the time comes.

    The world is, as I see it, unfolding as it should

    My advice is to sit back, do the right thing when called upon to do so, smile and enjoy life while you can.

    All things come to an end
     
  7. Sunsettommy
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    Sunsettommy VIP Member Supporting Member

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    I see that you have no idea why Peak oil claims have been wrong for over 100 years. You ignored post 335 which is typical since you are wedded to a doomsday future. That is why Peak Oil followers are a truly stupid bunch since they have been 100% wrong for over 100 years now, always ignoring future reserves and site developments.

    Try this for size: "If it ever becomes economically feasible to tap the unconventional oil of the Green River formation, Peak Oil will be put off “to infinity and beyond”…"

    It WILL become economically feasible in the future.

    Then we have COAL to make oil from. We can make oil ourselves too when it becomes economically feasible.

    If people like YOU stop fighting Nuclear and Fusion power, a lot of Oil use would be reduced and Coal too.
     
  8. Sunsettommy
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    Sunsettommy VIP Member Supporting Member

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    "You ignored post 335 which is typical since you are wedded to a doomsday future."

    I meant post 385 , NOT 335.

    Sorry.
     
  9. watchingfromafar
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    watchingfromafar VIP Member

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    They only have to be right once. And this time around they are right for a change.

    I am not wedded to anything. I just posted the known facts about the finite quality of oil that is out there and the rate we are burning it up. You are free to make your own conclusions from these facts. As of yet you have "not" proven me wrong.


    My dear friend, coal is finite too.

    I am not fighting nuclear or fusion power or geothermal. In the short term we could use the nuclear power that is now in our atomic war heads to power electric generation plands.

    We need our president to announce a plain to transition us off of oil and to renewables in a timely manner that is not pannic driven.
     
  10. watchingfromafar
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    watchingfromafar VIP Member

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    In short, this is called scrapping the bottom of the barrel
     

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