Sunsettommy
Diamond Member
- Mar 19, 2018
- 14,892
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I see that some here persist in the belief that Peak oil has already arrived, and will run low or out of oil in a decade or so.
Yet we keep getting updates of more news of MORE oil found:
"The World Keeps Not Running Out of Oil" July 10, 2017 (Petroleum Geologist is the author)
Whatever happened to fears over “peak oil”? June 30, 2018 (Same Petroleum Geologist making detailed comments in the thread)
It's Been A Tough Week For Peak Oil Theorists Sep 27, 2017 (Author has 39 year career in the Oil and Gas industry)
============================
There will be a time when oil extraction becomes too expensive to continue, even then there will still be oil in the ground.
I posted a number of times over this, to see that Peak Oil defenders never understand WHY their Peak Oil claims are always a failure, as shown at this POST 393
"A partial list of FAILED Peak oil predictions:
"1941: US Dept. of the Interior: “American oil supplies will last only another 13 years.”
1943, Oil and Gas Journal: “There is a growing opinion that the United States has reached its peak oil production, the Oil and Gas Journal pointed out in its current issue. Since 1938, discoveries of new oil have not equaled withdrawals, in any single year, although there is a very good chance that 1943 will see enough new Ellenburger oil in West Texas to provide an excess.”
1956, Hubbert: “M. King Hubbert of the Shell Development Co. predicted [one year ago] that peak oil production would be reached in the next 10 to 15 years and after that would gradually decline.”
1957: The residents of Tulsa, Oklahoma buried a car as part of a large time capsule. They buried containers of gasoline with it because they feared there would be no gasoline in 2007 when the capsule was to be opened. Link.
May, 1972, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Richard Wilson: “At any rate, U.S. oil supplies will last only 20 years. Foreign supplies will last 40 or 50 years but are increasingly dependent upon world politics.”
1977, US Department of Energy Organization Act: “As a nation, Americans have been reluctant to accept the prospect of physical shortages. We must recognize that world oil production will likely peak in the early 1990’s, and from that point on will be on a declining curve. By the early part of the 21st century, we must face the prospect of running out of oil and natural gas.” Link.
1978: Glenn Seaborg, chairman AEC: “We are living in the twilight of the petroleum age.”
1980, Dr. Hans Bethe: The world will reach peak oil production before the year 2000.
1996, Dr. Richard Smalley: “…oil production will likely peak by 2020 and start declining. “
2002, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden: “Global supplies of crude oil will peak as early as 2010 and then start to decline, ushering in an era of soaring energy prices and economic upheaval — or so said an international group of petroleum specialists meeting Friday.” Link.
2005, Chris Skrebowski, editor of the Energy Institute in London Petroleum Review: “We should be worried. Time is short, and we are not even at the point where we admit we have a problem … Governments are always excessively optimistic. The problem is that the peak, which I think is 2008, is tomorrow in planning terms.”
They failed because they never allow for new discoveries and improvement in technology. They are always wrong, which is why they have no credibility. They fail because it is ECONOMICS that determines whether to drill or explore for more.
==================
Now watch Peak Oil defenders IGNORE this, from post 395:
"This doesn’t mean that the production rate literally peaked in 2004. It means that a hundred years from now, if you fit a logistic function to the data, the peak would be around 2004. However, proved reserves are a moving target because they only represent a fraction of the oil that is likely to be produced from existing fields. “Reserves” has a very specific legal definition. In the US, “reserves” generally means proved reserves (1P). In less regulated nations, “reserves” often includes probable (2P) and/or possible (3P) reserves. Most of the “off limits” areas would fall under “prospective resources”…"
They don't understand the legal definitions of Reserves and the critical difference between probable, prospective and proved reserves.
===================
Then we have this that was dishonestly opposed:
From Post 398
Selected Excerpt:
"How Much Oil Does the World Have Left?
2015 Global Crude Oil Production, Reserves, Resources
Cumulative production 1,200 billion bbl – The total volume consumed.
Proved reserves 1,680 – The volume of oil in the ground producible by existing wells.
Conventional Resources 1,435 – The volume of undiscovered technically recoverable oil in conventional reservoirs.
Unconventional Resources 2,815 – The volume of undiscovered technically recoverable oil in unconventional reservoirs.
Total oil consumed: 1,200 billion bbl (17%)
Total oil remaining to be consumed 5,930 billion bbl (83%)
Total recoverable oil: 7,130 billion bbl (100%)
Assuming the a the estimated resource potential doesn’t increase, the world has 211 years worth of crude oil remaining at current consumption rates."
The reply below comes from a dumb peak oil fanatic was false since as my Post 398 showed, that was based on CURRENT extraction/drilling technology.
From post 400
This is a perfect example of pure baloney, which he didn't support at all. It is called moving the goalpost, which is typical of people who KNOW they are losing the debate.
====================
Close with this comment from post 396:
Andy May
Kristi Silber, I don’t think you read all of my post. I actually agree with what you have written about how “peak consumption” will occur and my agreement is in the post. Simply stated, peak consumption is reached when oil and gas are too expensive. I quote my post:
“In short, just because 95% of the oil is from historical “conventional” field types, does not mean that will continue. Other sources of oil will be found and developed if there is demand at the price required to make the fields profitable. The limit on the supply of oil has nothing to do with whether it is conventional or unconventional. It has everything to do with demand at the price required to make a profit. Once the price reaches a level where people find another energy source preferable, oil and gas will decline. As long as the price can go up, additional resources will always be found. We agree with Peter Jackson and Leta Smith:
“We do not dispute that supply will plateau and eventually fall; the question is when, how and at what price? As the plateau approaches, oil prices are likely to increase strongly, with some very severe spikes along the way.” (Jackson and Smith 2013)”
On BP. BP, like me, does not predict peak oil consumption at all. They only say we have 55 years of oil and gas left. We both believe that peak oil has nothing to do with supply, for all practical purposes supply is infinite. It has everything to do with cost and the cost of competitors. Right now, oil and gas have a huge cost advantage over all the competition, except for coal and nuclear. Both coal and nuclear have political problems, but if those go away, one of them could replace a lot (but not all) of the oil and gas consumption. Oil and gas are too useful, in too many areas. They are hard to replace completely."
red bolding mine
Peak oil will be based on ECONOMICS, not supply. This is why Peak Oil morons never understand, because they are looking at the wrong place, always!
Yet we keep getting updates of more news of MORE oil found:
"The World Keeps Not Running Out of Oil" July 10, 2017 (Petroleum Geologist is the author)
Whatever happened to fears over “peak oil”? June 30, 2018 (Same Petroleum Geologist making detailed comments in the thread)
It's Been A Tough Week For Peak Oil Theorists Sep 27, 2017 (Author has 39 year career in the Oil and Gas industry)
============================
There will be a time when oil extraction becomes too expensive to continue, even then there will still be oil in the ground.
I posted a number of times over this, to see that Peak Oil defenders never understand WHY their Peak Oil claims are always a failure, as shown at this POST 393
"A partial list of FAILED Peak oil predictions:
"1941: US Dept. of the Interior: “American oil supplies will last only another 13 years.”
1943, Oil and Gas Journal: “There is a growing opinion that the United States has reached its peak oil production, the Oil and Gas Journal pointed out in its current issue. Since 1938, discoveries of new oil have not equaled withdrawals, in any single year, although there is a very good chance that 1943 will see enough new Ellenburger oil in West Texas to provide an excess.”
1956, Hubbert: “M. King Hubbert of the Shell Development Co. predicted [one year ago] that peak oil production would be reached in the next 10 to 15 years and after that would gradually decline.”
1957: The residents of Tulsa, Oklahoma buried a car as part of a large time capsule. They buried containers of gasoline with it because they feared there would be no gasoline in 2007 when the capsule was to be opened. Link.
May, 1972, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Richard Wilson: “At any rate, U.S. oil supplies will last only 20 years. Foreign supplies will last 40 or 50 years but are increasingly dependent upon world politics.”
1977, US Department of Energy Organization Act: “As a nation, Americans have been reluctant to accept the prospect of physical shortages. We must recognize that world oil production will likely peak in the early 1990’s, and from that point on will be on a declining curve. By the early part of the 21st century, we must face the prospect of running out of oil and natural gas.” Link.
1978: Glenn Seaborg, chairman AEC: “We are living in the twilight of the petroleum age.”
1980, Dr. Hans Bethe: The world will reach peak oil production before the year 2000.
1996, Dr. Richard Smalley: “…oil production will likely peak by 2020 and start declining. “
2002, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden: “Global supplies of crude oil will peak as early as 2010 and then start to decline, ushering in an era of soaring energy prices and economic upheaval — or so said an international group of petroleum specialists meeting Friday.” Link.
2005, Chris Skrebowski, editor of the Energy Institute in London Petroleum Review: “We should be worried. Time is short, and we are not even at the point where we admit we have a problem … Governments are always excessively optimistic. The problem is that the peak, which I think is 2008, is tomorrow in planning terms.”
They failed because they never allow for new discoveries and improvement in technology. They are always wrong, which is why they have no credibility. They fail because it is ECONOMICS that determines whether to drill or explore for more.
==================
Now watch Peak Oil defenders IGNORE this, from post 395:
"This doesn’t mean that the production rate literally peaked in 2004. It means that a hundred years from now, if you fit a logistic function to the data, the peak would be around 2004. However, proved reserves are a moving target because they only represent a fraction of the oil that is likely to be produced from existing fields. “Reserves” has a very specific legal definition. In the US, “reserves” generally means proved reserves (1P). In less regulated nations, “reserves” often includes probable (2P) and/or possible (3P) reserves. Most of the “off limits” areas would fall under “prospective resources”…"
They don't understand the legal definitions of Reserves and the critical difference between probable, prospective and proved reserves.
===================
Then we have this that was dishonestly opposed:
From Post 398
Selected Excerpt:
"How Much Oil Does the World Have Left?
2015 Global Crude Oil Production, Reserves, Resources
Cumulative production 1,200 billion bbl – The total volume consumed.
Proved reserves 1,680 – The volume of oil in the ground producible by existing wells.
Conventional Resources 1,435 – The volume of undiscovered technically recoverable oil in conventional reservoirs.
Unconventional Resources 2,815 – The volume of undiscovered technically recoverable oil in unconventional reservoirs.
Total oil consumed: 1,200 billion bbl (17%)
Total oil remaining to be consumed 5,930 billion bbl (83%)
Total recoverable oil: 7,130 billion bbl (100%)
Assuming the a the estimated resource potential doesn’t increase, the world has 211 years worth of crude oil remaining at current consumption rates."
The reply below comes from a dumb peak oil fanatic was false since as my Post 398 showed, that was based on CURRENT extraction/drilling technology.
From post 400
This is a perfect example of pure baloney, which he didn't support at all. It is called moving the goalpost, which is typical of people who KNOW they are losing the debate.
====================
Close with this comment from post 396:
Andy May
Kristi Silber, I don’t think you read all of my post. I actually agree with what you have written about how “peak consumption” will occur and my agreement is in the post. Simply stated, peak consumption is reached when oil and gas are too expensive. I quote my post:
“In short, just because 95% of the oil is from historical “conventional” field types, does not mean that will continue. Other sources of oil will be found and developed if there is demand at the price required to make the fields profitable. The limit on the supply of oil has nothing to do with whether it is conventional or unconventional. It has everything to do with demand at the price required to make a profit. Once the price reaches a level where people find another energy source preferable, oil and gas will decline. As long as the price can go up, additional resources will always be found. We agree with Peter Jackson and Leta Smith:
“We do not dispute that supply will plateau and eventually fall; the question is when, how and at what price? As the plateau approaches, oil prices are likely to increase strongly, with some very severe spikes along the way.” (Jackson and Smith 2013)”
On BP. BP, like me, does not predict peak oil consumption at all. They only say we have 55 years of oil and gas left. We both believe that peak oil has nothing to do with supply, for all practical purposes supply is infinite. It has everything to do with cost and the cost of competitors. Right now, oil and gas have a huge cost advantage over all the competition, except for coal and nuclear. Both coal and nuclear have political problems, but if those go away, one of them could replace a lot (but not all) of the oil and gas consumption. Oil and gas are too useful, in too many areas. They are hard to replace completely."
red bolding mine
Peak oil will be based on ECONOMICS, not supply. This is why Peak Oil morons never understand, because they are looking at the wrong place, always!
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