Excellent op ed from Karl Rove in this AM's WSJ. The case he lays out has Obama losing on most scenarios. He took so many states last time by a very slim margin. He will not repeat that. There are too many ways for Romney to win.
Rove: Romney's Roads to the White House - WSJ.com
Rove: Romney's Roads to the White House - WSJ.com
More at the source.f Mr. Romney carries the states John McCain won in 2008 and regains Nebraska's second district (the state awards three of its five electoral votes by congressional district, the other two to the statewide winner), the Electoral College will be 14 votes closer than the 365-to-173 total in 2008. That's because the 2010 Census cost blue states such as Massachusetts, New York and Illinois congressional seatsand electoral voteswhile red states such as South Carolina, Georgia and Texas gained seats.
None of Mr. McCain's states appear in real jeopardy for the GOP this year.
After this initial hurdle, Mr. Romney's victory road starts with "3"as in Indiana, North Carolina and Virginia, a trio of historically Republican states. In 2008, Mr. Obama won by narrow margins in Indiana (barely 1%) and North Carolina (0.32%).
Today, even Team Obama doesn't pretend Indiana is in play. North Carolina also appears to be sliding away from the president: A May 14 Rasmussen poll of likely voters showed 51% for Romney, 43% for Obama. Virginia, on the other hand, will likely remain a battleground through Election Day. Mr. Obama carried it by more than six points and remains ahead by a little more than three points, according to the RealClearPolitics average of state polls.
Nevertheless, if Mr. Romney can put these states' combined 39 electoral votes back into the GOP column, the Electoral College vote would be 319 for Mr. Obama, 219 for Mr. Romney.
Next up is "2"as in Florida and Ohio. They flipped from Republican in 2004 to Democratic in 2008. Both were closea 2.8% margin for Mr. Obama in the former and 4.6% in the latter.
The president's commanding lead in Florida among Jews has been sagging, his lead among Latinos has sharply narrowed, and seniors are restless. In Ohio he has definite problems with white working-class voters and affluent suburban independents. The race is extremely close in the Buckeye Statea May 7 Quinnipiac poll of registered voters has Mr. Romney at 44%, Mr. Obama at 45%while a May 21 Quinnipiac poll of registered voters in the Sunshine State has Mr. Romney up 47% to 41%.
Mitt Romney campaigning in Charlotte, N.C.
These two states have a combined 47 electoral votes. If Mr. Romney wins them, the Electoral College would stand at 272 for Mr. Obama, 266 for Mr. Romney.
Which brings us to "1." Mr. Romney then needs one more stateany stateand the White House is his.