Newt and Santorum can't win, the math does not work

Discussion in 'Politics' started by Maple, Mar 7, 2012.

  1. Maple
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    Maple Senior Member

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    It's all in the delegate count and there is no possibility that either can make up the ground to overtake Romney's 200+ delegate count, not possible. The best thing they could do for their country and their party is to drop out allow us to come behind romney with our money, time and talents and focus on making Obama a one term President.

    I hope they do not allow their huge ego's to get in the way of doing what's best for our country.

    Rick Santorum Can't Win

    Frontloading HQ’s Josh Putnam crunches the numbers and finds that under the most optimistic scenario, Rick Santorum is limited to a delegate haul of 1,075, which falls somewhat short of the 1,144 needed to win the nomination.

    Putnam notes that you could goose that even further and assume big wins for Santorum in the remaining primaries. Even still, the most he could win is 1,152 delegates. By contrast, Mitt Romney’s minimum 1,162 delegates while his maximum extends to 1,341 delegates.

    In other words—at this point—it’s mathematically impossible for Santorum to win the nomination through delegate accumulation. Of course, there’s always the question of a brokered convention. But as Putnam points out, of the people to win the nomination through negotiation, Santorum is at the bottom of the list:


    The bottom line here is that Romney has enough of a delegate advantage right now and especially coming out of today’s contests that it is very unlikely that anyone will catch him, much less catch him and get to 1144. The latter seems particularly far-fetched given the above scenarios. And that is a problem in this race. Well, a problem for Gingrich and Santorum anyway. If all either of them can take to voters is an argument that all they can do is prevent Romney from getting to 1144, then neither has a winning strategy. That sort of strategy has a half life; one that will grow less effective as, in this case, Romney approaches 1144.

    Complicating this scenario even further for Gingrich and Santorum is the fact that if neither can get to 1144 or even close to it, neither is all that likely to be the candidate to emerge as the nominee at any – unlikely though it may be – contested convention.

    At this point, Romney doesn’t need delegates, he needs the okay from the Republican base—permission to focus his attention on the general election, and pull back from the fight with his doomed competitors. Unfortunately for the former Massachusetts governor, the base doesn’t seem ready to give up the quest for a more “acceptable” standard-bearer.
     
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    Last edited: Mar 7, 2012
  2. Liability
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    Liability Locked Account. Supporting Member

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    Bullshit post is stinky.
     
  3. Avatar4321
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    Avatar4321 Diamond Member Gold Supporting Member

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    If I were Romney, I would focus on Obama regardless what the others do. That's what the base wants anyway.

    The others can still win if they take it to a brokered convention. Quite frankly there is nothing wrong with that. I dont begrudge them working hard to win, despite the fact that they all have different motivations.
     
  4. BreezeWood
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    BreezeWood VIP Member Supporting Member

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    Keep in mind Obama in 2008 barely won by default over Clinton and went on to win the general election.

    with a brokered convention Romney will have most likely lost his chance and no they will not pick Santorum so by default it will go to Gingrich ... lots of luck.
     
  5. Liability
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    The odds of it going brokered are quite slim.

    If Gingrich is going to pull it off, he's gonna have to just win more of these caucuses and primaries.
     
  6. Avatar4321
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    Avatar4321 Diamond Member Gold Supporting Member

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    There is absolutely no reason to believe that at all. Why the heck would everyone go to Gingrich?

    You're saying that if we went to a brokered convention, you think it's more likely that the delegates will reject the first two candidates and choose a third one that was overwhelmingly rejected by the voters?
     
  7. BreezeWood
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    BreezeWood VIP Member Supporting Member

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    Gingrich is the former Speaker of the Hose of Representatives and became that by ending the 40 year domination of the HR by the Democrats.

    If Romney does not win enough delegates why would the convention give him the nomination when he could not win it himself - it will be one of the three and Gingrich is the next in line - if he is able to prove viability leading to the convention will be more important than the no. of delegates.
     
  8. Wry Catcher
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    In an open convention anything can happen. The best that can happen for the GOP is for the convention to be open, and that the keynote be given to someone who can steer the delegates in a new direction; not one of the current four has the right stuff to defeat President Obama. I can't believe the current crop represents the best and the brightest the GOP has to offer.
     
  9. Avatar4321
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    Avatar4321 Diamond Member Gold Supporting Member

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    Are you seriously listening to yourself? If Romney wouldnt get it because he couldnt win it himself, why the heck would Gingrich get it when he didnt win it himself?
     
  10. Zander
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    Zander Platinum Member

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    Romney will win. Get behind him and send Obama on a permanent vacation!
     
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