More government deception on the economy?

Discussion in 'Economy' started by Neubarth, Jul 9, 2009.

  1. Neubarth
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    Neubarth At the Ballpark July 30th

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    More government deception on the economy.


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    565K Unemployment Claims or 578K??

    Did Unemployment Insurance Claims go up or down last week? The official report says DOWN, but the reality is that it went UP!!! The Obama government loves to play with numbers as I have pointed out before.

    The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 577,506 in the week ending July 4, an increase of 17,612 from the previous week. There were 401,672 initial claims in the comparable week in 2008.


    Sadly, it was reported as 565,000, a so called “decrease” of 52,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 617,000.

    Funny, isn’t it that the official report says unemployment went down, but the actual data shows that it went up last week over the week before.

    ETA Press Release: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report
     
  2. eagleseven
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    eagleseven Quod Erat Demonstrandum

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    Also note that the nearly 500,000 jobs lost in May bumped unemployment from 8.9% to 9.4%.

    The nearly 500,000 jobs lost in June bumped unemployoment from 9.4% to 9.5%


    This is being hailed as A Sign of Recovery by some in the press.

    I call bullshit.

    This demonstrates how backwards the official calculation is...ignoring basic math.
     
  3. Neubarth
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    Neubarth At the Ballpark July 30th

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    Right you are!

    Our economy keeps falling and falling and falling......


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    The fairly consistent sell off in the past four weeks is clear evidence that investors are coming to their senses and leaving the stock market to buy bonds Or shorting vehicles, as I have been suggesting for the past two months. I don't know if we are going to retest the March Lows, but we will probably come close on this swing down.

    Swing Low Sweet Chariot.
    Comin' for to carry me home.
     
  4. pinqy
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    pinqy Gold Member

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    Ummm, the official report includes both seasonally adjusted and unadjusted numbers, and the Bush, and Clinton, and Bush, and Reagan etc administrations all reported adjusted and unadjusted numbers. So how can you claim that the Obama administration loves to play with numbers when they're not doing anything at all different from the Bush administration?

    [qutoe]The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 577,506 in the week ending July 4, an increase of 17,612 from the previous week. There were 401,672 initial claims in the comparable week in 2008.


    Sadly, it was reported as 565,000, a so called “decrease” of 52,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 617,000.[/quote]It was reported as both..the different numbers are right on top of each other. Seasonal adjustment is preferred, and has been preferred for as long as the technique has existed, because it gives a more accurate view of month to month changes. If you knew one single thing about statistics, which you have proven time and again that you don't, I'd explain seasonal adjustment, but you would just ignore it and insult me as you've done every time I've tried to give you my many years of professional knowledge.

    And sometimes the reverse happens.
     

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