McCain pulls out of Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado

[Modbert]

Palin takes aim at Obama's experience | MiamiHerald.com
COLORADO SPRINGS, Colo. -- With time running short in the 2008 presidential campaign, Gov. Sarah Palin made a campaign tour through swing-state Colorado on Monday, cutting through the gloom of a raw and cold Colorado Springs morning with an appeal to "help put the maverick in the White House."
The crowd, which did not fill the 8,500-capacity Security Service Field, warmed itself with a big cheer when the Alaska governor asked, "Are you ready to make John McCain the next president of the United States of America?"

She also assailed the Democratic presidential nominee's experience.

"Barack Obama only spent 304 days - just 304 days - in the Senate before running for president," she said. "John McCain has spent his life serving our country and putting it first."

Palin had been governor of Alaska for less than 20 months when she was announced as McCain's pick for the Republican vice presidential nomination.

"Our country is having some tough economic times," she said. "We need someone tough as president, who is ready to lead on Day One." She said that as the mother of a soldier serving in Iraq, she views McCain as "exactly the kind of man I want as commander-in-chief."

Accusing Obama of presenting a tax plan that is "just words," Palin promised tax relief "to every American and every business," mentioning tax cuts for small businesses and promising to double the child tax deduction and cut the capital gains tax, all while repeating McCain's promise of a balanced federal budget by 2012.

"Our opponent is not being candid with you about his tax plans," she said, mentioning Obama's often-repeated assertion that his plan would cut taxes for 95 percent of Americans.

"The problem with that claim is that 40 percent pay no income tax at all," she said. "His plan is to cut them a check and call it a tax credit. Where's he going to get the money for all those checks that he'll cut? It's by raising taxes on America's families, and on our small businesses, on a lot of folks just like you."

"Our opponent's plan to redistribute wealth will ultimately punish hard work and productivity and discourages productivity," Palin said. "It will stifle the entrepreneurial spirit that has made this country unique."



No one is conceding Colorado. Colorado has a huge population of unaffliated voters and they will break late.

You do realize this happened BEFORE the sources say they are conceding the state?

The only reason Palin was in the state was because it was the first day of early voting.

 

[Article 15]

So, looking at my map, if McCain loses New Mexico and Colorado, but wins Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, West Virginia, Virginia, North Carolina, New Hampshire, North Dakotah AND Florida, you'll have a 269-269 doomsday scenario on your hands in which you'll have President Obama and Vice President Sarah Palin.

He's done.

McCain has to defend like 10 Alamos.

 

[Toro]

Polls are moving towards McCain the past few days in WV. New Rasmussen poll in Florida has it even again.

But the math works against McCain. Either something big must happen within the next two weeks or people get into the polling booth and just can't bring themselves to vote for a black fella.

 

[DavidS]

No one has won anything yet, polls are highly unreliable. For example, see those exit polls in Florida in 2000. How many times did the pundits switch FL from red to blue?

I could understand if some polls showed McCain winning, others shows Obama winning. But no poll shows McCain winning. So I guess polls are only unreliable because they show your candidate losing. As I have said a million times, one poll by itself means nothing... a group of polls over a period of time is a trend. These companies base their entire purpose of being around accuracy.

You're using one example of exit polling gone wrong, yet you're forgetting about the other 49 that went right! How convenient!

RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - General Election: McCain vs. Obama

The trend is your friend. Read it and weep.

 

[DavidS]

Polls are moving towards McCain the past few days in WV. New Rasmussen poll in Florida has it even again.

But the math works against McCain. Either something big must happen within the next two weeks or people get into the polling booth and just can't bring themselves to vote for a black fella.

Obama has never lead in West Virginia. It's gotten close, as in 6 or 8 points, but West Virginia is solid GOP.

As far as Florida, that state is too close to call.

If Obama wins Virginia, it's over. RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - Virginia: McCain vs. Obama

 

[DavidS]

he's assuming obama wins new hampshire. then it eqauls 273 and fits his scenario.

I'm assuming McCain wins in my tie scenario. If Obama wins NH, it's over.

 

[Silence]

No one has won anything yet, polls are highly unreliable. For example, see those exit polls in Florida in 2000. How many times did the pundits switch FL from red to blue?

I do laugh whenever a Repub uses Florida 2000 as their example of how you can't call a winner based on exit polls and such.

It's been well documented that the 2000 election had irregularities and anyone with half a brain knows that Bush didn't actually win FL 2000 (or OH 2004).

Come up with some better examples unless of course what you're saying is that when in doubt the Repubs will just steal the election rather than actually win it.

 

[Red Dawn]

CNN Political Ticker: All politics, all the time Blog Archive - McCain camp looking for way to win without Colorado - Blogs from CNN.com

I posted, about 4 hours ago, what swing states McCain supporters thought he might win.

No one replied.

I was waiting for someone to say "New Mexico, Colorado and Iowa." Too bad.

So, looking at my map, if McCain loses New Mexico and Colorado, but wins Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, West Virginia, Virginia, North Carolina, New Hampshire, North Dakotah AND Florida, you'll have a 269-269 doomsday scenario on your hands in which you'll have President Obama and Vice President Sarah Palin.

The bad news for you Republicans is that Obama is up in Virginia and New Hampshire by double digits. If Obama wins either of those states, he's won the election. See my map.

Pollster.com's electoral map is now showing virginia as a "solid" Obama state. Insane.

 

[DavidS]

Pollster.com's electoral map is now showing virginia as a "solid" Obama state. Insane.

SurveyUSA, which is very accurate, has Obama up by 6 in Virginia. Let's say the margin of error is 3, then Obama would be up by 3. Virginia is far from a solid Obama state.

Suffolk has Obama up by double digits, but I don't trust Suffolk... they're not the most accurate.

FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: pollster ratings

 

[DavidS]

He doesn't need Indiana. If you go to the CNN electoral vote website, you will see what I mean.

CNN caculates Virginia as leaning Obama for him to win. I would move Virginia under toss up. I don't think he's won Virginia over just yet.

 

[Red Dawn]

SurveyUSA, which is very accurate, has Obama up by 6 in Virginia. Let's say the margin of error is 3, then Obama would be up by 3. Virginia is far from a solid Obama state.

Suffolk has Obama up by double digits, but I don't trust Suffolk... they're not the most accurate.

FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: pollster ratings

fivethirtyeight.com shows virginia as a solid obama state on their electoral map this morning.

I though SurveyUSA was one poll that consistently had outliers. Its not one of the more respected polls. But, I could be wrong about that.

 

[Epsilon Delta]

You might not want to use the term "slam dunk". You may want to pick another phrase.

Sincerely,
George Tenet.

I don't get it.

 

[DavidS]

I don't get it.

He was the former director of the CIA who said Iraq would be a "slam dunk."

 

[Larkinn]

No one has won anything yet, polls are highly unreliable. For example, see those exit polls in Florida in 2000. How many times did the pundits switch FL from red to blue?

Exit polls are not the same as pre-election polls. Exit polls are highly unscientific.

 

[editec]

Why?

Is his Grammie sick, too?

 

[bigdaddygtr]

CNN Political Ticker: All politics, all the time Blog Archive - McCain camp looking for way to win without Colorado - Blogs from CNN.com

I posted, about 4 hours ago, what swing states McCain supporters thought he might win.

No one replied.

I was waiting for someone to say "New Mexico, Colorado and Iowa." Too bad.

So, looking at my map, if McCain loses New Mexico and Colorado, but wins Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, West Virginia, Virginia, North Carolina, New Hampshire, North Dakotah AND Florida, you'll have a 269-269 doomsday scenario on your hands in which you'll have President Obama and Vice President Sarah Palin.

The bad news for you Republicans is that Obama is up in Virginia and New Hampshire by double digits. If Obama wins either of those states, he's won the election. See my map.

Don't you have to be able to get it up in order to pull out?

 

[Larkinn]

Polls are moving towards McCain the past few days in WV. New Rasmussen poll in Florida has it even again.

But the math works against McCain. Either something big must happen within the next two weeks or people get into the polling booth and just can't bring themselves to vote for a black fella.

The polls will tighten in the next 2 weeks, but I agree. I see no way of McCain winning short of massive racism, which I don't think will happen.

There are also 2 specific reasons I think Obama is underperforming in the polls.

1) A reverse Bradley effect: Blacks will turn out more than they did in 2004 for obvious reasons.

2) Obamas ground game is 100 times better than McCain's. Half of my school is going out to Ohio and PA to do GOTV stuff, and I have several friends who have been working with the campaign for months. The enthusiasm gap is going to cause all of Obamas supporters to turn out, but the same likely won't be true for McCain.

 

[AVG-JOE]

It really looks like McCain just can't win at this point. Just winning the Kerry States and these three give Obama the presidency (273-268), and it doesn't look like any states are flipping his way. In fact, now it looks even likelier that Missouri, Ohio, Virginia, and Nevada go blue than any of these three to go red, which would give Obama 322 electoral votes. Add in Florida and WV and NC and he'd have 369. Even Indiana, South Dakota, and Montana have been giving tightening polls... he could even get 386 electoral votes to McCain's 152. It'd be a slam dunk. Things are looking pretty grim for the Republicans at this point. Only 2 weeks left!

Dude, things are not that grim. No matter what happens on November 4, the republicans are still going to wake up on the 5th in America.

-Joe

 

[Epsilon Delta]

He was the former director of the CIA who said Iraq would be a "slam dunk."

Uh oh...

@ Joe: That's true.

 

[jillian]

He's done.

McCain has to defend like 10 Alamos.

No. He's not done. I don't believe in getting overconfident. McCain has proven he no longer cares what he says and his campaign has no dignity any more. That resonates with "the base". Will that be enough to make them come out? I don't know. Will any of the disgusting slime they're tossing stick? Hard to tell... voters have been known to respond very well to swiftboating.

That said, Rasmussen still has him up by 4. The race is tightening in terms of numbers because the base is all hot for Sarah and the smears... But the middle... the independents.... moderate dems .... moderate repubs seem to be flocking to Obama. Interestingly, as Navy noted last night, the real conservative dems seem, at least in small.. very small ... numbers to be McCain voters. But I'd say that was to be expected.

If nothing else, it's interesting.

I just wish we could vote already before the loonies toss around any more smears.