Market Bottom?

Discussion in 'Stock Market' started by The Rabbi, May 26, 2010.

  1. The Rabbi
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    The Rabbi Diamond Member

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    Where is the bottom on the current market? With so much uncertainty out there it doesn't make sense to be in anything but cash right now. The downside potential is enormous, with sovereign debt default, municipal defaults, and bad gov't policy just around the corner.
    Prices on stocks have come down but I am thinking they will need to go further to make up for all the risks.
    Any thoughts?
     
  2. tommywho70x
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    tommywho70x BANNED

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    get a real job?
     
  3. The Rabbi
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    The Rabbi Diamond Member

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    Leave the grownups to talk amongst themselves, OK?
     
  4. Toro
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    Toro Diamond Member

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    Don't know. Risk assets aren't cheap enough to be at a true bottom.

    My thesis is that we are going to trade in a range for some time, perhaps several years. Maybe that range is 900-1200 on the SP500, I don't know. But I don't think that the market is going to hit new highs anytime soon.

    But maybe I'm wrong.
     
  5. william the wie
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    william the wie Gold Member

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    The only rule of thumb that is surefire is 1 oz of gold = DJIA is a bottom or close enough for government work. However bottoms are often formed without getting that low. Therefore I am a huge fan of black swan strategies, asset allocation and hedging. I have June and Dec 120 straddles plus 105 June xsp straddles I am waiting to unwind some commercial property I have interest in and my wife is over invested in bonds. My other assets, if any, I would prefer not to mention but I have no debts. I will be unsurprised by a Dow 3K-20K by the end of this year hence the straddles.
     
  6. hvactec
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    hvactec VIP Member

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    This market looks like it's rigged to me.
    It just don't make sense at all
     
  7. tommywho70x
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    tommywho70x BANNED

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    best to let the grownups get suckered into that fraud and us immature types stick to tangibles.

    :tongue:
     
  8. Terral
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    Terral Terral Corp CEO

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    Hi Rabbi:

    There is no bottom to the Housing Market, which means there is no bottom to the other markets. Period. The fundamentals ARE BROKEN, because the Consumer/Tax Bases are eroding right before your very eyes. The primary causes of the coming Economic Collapse are:

    1. Worker Displacement of American Workers 'out' of the local job markets caused by:
    2. NAFTA Offshoring of the manufacturing base.
    3. 23 Guest Worker Programs.
    4. 20 to 30 MILLION Illegal Alien Foreign Nationals.
    5. Outsourcing of service sector JOBS to other nations like India.
    6. Walmart Global Conglomerate-like Companies that import Chinese goods and put U.S. 'Mom & Pop' companies out of business.
    7. ObamaCare driving Health Care costs 'up' to create 'hiring freeze' for struggling U.S. Companies.

    All the fiat currencies are losing value against gold!!!! Five ounces of gold were required to buy the S&P in 2000. However, today the entire S&P can be bought for less than one ounce of gold! The U.S. Dollar is worthless, but the other currencies just happen to be losing value faster than the greenback. I would buy food stocks, guns, ammo, survival goods and 'then' gold ...

    Bad Govt Policy has been around for decades! The true national debt is far beyond 100 Trillion Dollars right now!

    The stock markets will crash in the day that STUPID day traders wake up and realize that the U.S. Dollar is WORTHLESS. Right now the entire system is running on mere confidence that is dwindling. The markets only tell us if the STUPID day traders are believing Obama's LIES. Eventually the Las Vegas-like Charade will collapse when Obama's house of cards comes tumbling down ...

    GL,

    Terral
     
    Last edited: May 27, 2010
  9. boedicca
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    boedicca Uppity Water Nymph Supporting Member

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    The market is being supported at higher levels than it deserves because interest rates are virtually 0%. This encourages riskier investments to have a chance to make something - which is exactly in the interests of big money that is busy extracting whatever wealth has been accumulated by the middle class.

    Once the middle class is driven to a further state of fear and panic, watch for the Feds to drop the Guaranteed Retirement Act into the mix in order to nationalize the remaining assets in 401Ks to offset some of their spending binge.
     
  10. william the wie
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    william the wie Gold Member

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    I don't really have anything useful to add on the bond thread but I would like to point out that innovation/growth is funded by junk bonds. If junk bonds (BB+ and lower) are not doing well then neither is the economy or the capital markets.
     

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