It would be unwise to intervene in Syria.

[Artevelde]

There are several reasons why it would be unwise to intervene in Syria.
First of all, what is happening in Syria is an internal conflict, which – so far at least – doesn’t threaten neighbouring countries or regional security. Obviously there is a limited impact in Lebanon, as well as a refugee problem on the Turkish side. There are also rumours of Al Qaeda involvement on the rebel side and Iranian involvement on the government side. But essentially it remains a conflict between opposing domestic Syrian forces. Outside intervention in such internal conflicts is – on the whole and in principle – unwarranted and unwise, as well as a violation of national sovereignty of course.
Intervention is only warranted if there are vital interests at stake (such as regional security or other vital concerns). So-called “humanitarian” interventions are on the whole a recipe for disaster. They quickly cause more problems than they solve. The fact that the Assad regime is a brutal dictatorship that suppresses its people and is killing large numbers is – in and of itself – insufficient grounds for intervention.
Secondly, the situation in Syria is actually very confused. Who are the rebels? What are they trying to achieve? What are the intentions of the Assad-regime (other than maintaining itself)? Is there a real alternative to the Assad-regime? Will the rebels be better or worse than Assad? In such a confused and unclear situation it would be very unwise to intervene.
Thirdly, what would an intervention look like and what would it achieve? To be effective it would have to involve a major military campaign. But what is the road map to get to a stable regime afterwards?
An intervention also risks spilling over very quickly into neighbouring countries (first of all Lebanon) and might lead to a much wider and more complicated conflict in which it would be very unclear who is fighting with whom and for what.
It was a mistake to send in UN-observers and they should be withdrawn as quickly as possible. All they are are potential hostages for the regime and the rebels. We should let the Syrians sort this out. Only if the Syrian regime seeks to export its conflict to neighbouring countries do I see a reason for intervention.

 

[editec]

My website's slightly statistics are down because of the mess in Syria.

Apparently until this civil strife started, CBO: Rosetta was the 275th most popular website in that country.

Weird, huh?

 

[mudwhistle]

To be honest.....I think most of us don't give a flip.

Whatever happens....it's gonna be bad.

 

[waltky]

Granny says Obama oughta send Navy Seal Team 6 in to assassinate his sorry butt...

Assad defiant as ever thanks to Russia: analysts
4 June`12 — Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is determined to crush the rebellion against his regime, even at the cost of triggering a civil war in the country, bolstered by support from Moscow, analysts say.

"He has been ready to fight to the end right from the start and as long as he has Russia's support he believes he will win," Middle East expert Agnes Levallois told AFP. On Sunday, Assad vowed to eradicate anti-regime dissent "at any cost," blaming armed "terrorists" for violence that has killed thousands since a popular uprising broke out in March 2011. Addressing parliament for the first time since May 7 elections, Assad said his government faced a foreign plot to destroy Syria but defiantly warned that "national security is a red line." "The masks have fallen and the international role in the Syrian events is now obvious," Assad said, paying tribute to civilian and military "martyrs" and vowing their blood was not shed in vain.

France-based Levallois said Assad "knows he can count on (Russian President Vladimir) Putin. "He gets a kind of tranquillity from this support that allows him to push on with the repression as he wishes." Her comments on Monday came as Putin hosted EU leaders in Saint Petersburg for talks that largely focused on Syria and ways of bridging differences with Russia over the conflict. International frustration with Moscow's stance on Syria has grown since Russia refused to squarely blame Assad's regime for the massacre of 108 people, including 49 children, in the central Syrian town of Houla last month.

Moscow insists rebels fighting government forces should share some of the responsibility for the violence in Syria and has steadfastly refused Western calls for Assad's ouster. EU President Herman Van Rompuy, who met Putin alongside EU Commission chief Jose Manuel Barroso, admitted after the Saint Petersburg talks that the EU and Russia "might have some divergent assessments" concerning Syria. But he said they agreed that implementing UN-Arab League envoy Kofi Annan's peace plan was the only way forward in a situation that risks developing into full-scale civil war. "We fully agree that the Annan plan as a whole provides the best opportunity to break the cycle of violence in Syria, avoiding a civil war and finding a peaceful, lasting solution," Van Rompuy said. "We need to combine our efforts in order for this to happen and to find common messages on which we agree. "We need to walk towards an immediate stop of all forms of violence in Syria and towards a process of political transition."

According to analysts, Assad's speech on Sunday presages a new and even deadlier cycle of violence in Syria. "It was a very defiant speech," said Salman Shaikh, head of the Brookings Doha Centre. "The future of Syria is pretty alarming, the next phase will get much worse," he added. Experts say Assad clearly ignored calls by Annan who urged the Syrian president, during a meeting in Damascus late last month, to take "brave decisions" in order to end the bloodshed. "Annan told Assad that he wanted acts, not words. But Assad replied that he planned on pursuing the war from inside," said Khattar Abou Diab, a lecturer at the Universite Paris-Sud. Abou Diab said he expected Assad's regime to press its assaults on rebel forces until the end of Annan's mandate in mid-July, determined to crush the armed uprising and safeguard his clan's grip on power. "Unfortunately this strategy will lead to more bloodshed and push the country to the brink of civil war," said Abou Diab. Levallois agreed, saying: "Assad wants to protect his clan" which has ruled Syria for the past 40 years. "He couldn't care less about a civil war."

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