Artevelde
Senior Member
There are several reasons why it would be unwise to intervene in Syria.
First of all, what is happening in Syria is an internal conflict, which so far at least doesnt threaten neighbouring countries or regional security. Obviously there is a limited impact in Lebanon, as well as a refugee problem on the Turkish side. There are also rumours of Al Qaeda involvement on the rebel side and Iranian involvement on the government side. But essentially it remains a conflict between opposing domestic Syrian forces. Outside intervention in such internal conflicts is on the whole and in principle unwarranted and unwise, as well as a violation of national sovereignty of course.
Intervention is only warranted if there are vital interests at stake (such as regional security or other vital concerns). So-called humanitarian interventions are on the whole a recipe for disaster. They quickly cause more problems than they solve. The fact that the Assad regime is a brutal dictatorship that suppresses its people and is killing large numbers is in and of itself insufficient grounds for intervention.
Secondly, the situation in Syria is actually very confused. Who are the rebels? What are they trying to achieve? What are the intentions of the Assad-regime (other than maintaining itself)? Is there a real alternative to the Assad-regime? Will the rebels be better or worse than Assad? In such a confused and unclear situation it would be very unwise to intervene.
Thirdly, what would an intervention look like and what would it achieve? To be effective it would have to involve a major military campaign. But what is the road map to get to a stable regime afterwards?
An intervention also risks spilling over very quickly into neighbouring countries (first of all Lebanon) and might lead to a much wider and more complicated conflict in which it would be very unclear who is fighting with whom and for what.
It was a mistake to send in UN-observers and they should be withdrawn as quickly as possible. All they are are potential hostages for the regime and the rebels. We should let the Syrians sort this out. Only if the Syrian regime seeks to export its conflict to neighbouring countries do I see a reason for intervention.
First of all, what is happening in Syria is an internal conflict, which so far at least doesnt threaten neighbouring countries or regional security. Obviously there is a limited impact in Lebanon, as well as a refugee problem on the Turkish side. There are also rumours of Al Qaeda involvement on the rebel side and Iranian involvement on the government side. But essentially it remains a conflict between opposing domestic Syrian forces. Outside intervention in such internal conflicts is on the whole and in principle unwarranted and unwise, as well as a violation of national sovereignty of course.
Intervention is only warranted if there are vital interests at stake (such as regional security or other vital concerns). So-called humanitarian interventions are on the whole a recipe for disaster. They quickly cause more problems than they solve. The fact that the Assad regime is a brutal dictatorship that suppresses its people and is killing large numbers is in and of itself insufficient grounds for intervention.
Secondly, the situation in Syria is actually very confused. Who are the rebels? What are they trying to achieve? What are the intentions of the Assad-regime (other than maintaining itself)? Is there a real alternative to the Assad-regime? Will the rebels be better or worse than Assad? In such a confused and unclear situation it would be very unwise to intervene.
Thirdly, what would an intervention look like and what would it achieve? To be effective it would have to involve a major military campaign. But what is the road map to get to a stable regime afterwards?
An intervention also risks spilling over very quickly into neighbouring countries (first of all Lebanon) and might lead to a much wider and more complicated conflict in which it would be very unclear who is fighting with whom and for what.
It was a mistake to send in UN-observers and they should be withdrawn as quickly as possible. All they are are potential hostages for the regime and the rebels. We should let the Syrians sort this out. Only if the Syrian regime seeks to export its conflict to neighbouring countries do I see a reason for intervention.