Is Skynet here?

[Czernobog]

Four years ago some researches at MIT quietly put out a quaint little report, that was largely ignored by...well...everyone, that in the next 20 years 45% of America's occupations would be automated. Now take a minute to let that soak in. Forty-five. Percent. Damned. Near. Half.

In the US, there are currently:

• 600,000 Uber drivers
• 181,000 taxi drivers
• 168,000 transit bus drivers
• 505,000 school bus drivers

Add to that nearly 1 million Truck Drivers. According to several companies, we are literally one to three years away from fully automated, self-driving vehicles. Once you can make a single $30,000 retrofit to make your truck, or cab driverless, rather than pay a $40,000/year salary for a driver, we are going to see a fleet of out of work Uber, taxi, bus, and truck drivers.

If that doesn't give you pause, consider that we already have robots, that can do the work of an entire compliment of warehouse workers:



Then there is Amazon Go, where customers come in, get what they want, and check out, all without ever, once, having to deal with the unpleasant annoyance of actually having to speak to anyone, because everything is automated. There is no reason to believe that this will not become the model for retail.

The examples go on, and on.

I am a product of the 21st Century. I like my techno-toys. And I do not want to be a luddite, and suggest that we need to muzzle, or leash science, technology, or discovery. But, I am genuinely concerned, and am wondering what are we to do, as our technology begins to replace our labour?

Are we moving into a society where we have to begin to rethink our economy? I mean for most of us the formula has been pretty simple: You work. You collect your pay. You buy shit. But, as technology begins to advance to a place where it eradicates the first expression in that equation, then is it necessary to find a new formula? And if so, what does that new formula look like?

 

[AsianTrumpSupporter]

 

[TomParks]

The regulations on the cars and trucks will make them too expensive for the average person to buy, and there must be a human at all times in the truck so nothing is really saved.

The myth of plugging in a robot and everything is fine also bogus....these automated machines require constant repairs...it will take a lot of engineers and mechanics to keep everything from breaking down and then there is the hacker issue....

 

[Czernobog]

The regulations on the cars and trucks will make them too expensive for the average person to buy, and there must be a human at all times in the truck so nothing is really saved.

The myth of plugging in a robot and everything is fine also bogus....these automated machines require constant repairs...it will take a lot of engineers and mechanics to keep everything from breaking down and then there is the hacker issue....

Okay. We're not talking about "average" persons. We're talking about businesses. and, why? Once we have achieved level 5 automation, why would we need a human in the vehicle?

What you're talking about is the field of automation maintenance. I considered that. I see two problems with that. First, do you really think that it will take nearly enough technicians to maintain the automation to even come close to make up for the millions, probably closer to billions, of jobs lost? Because, I don't. Second, you are talking about replacing low to medium education jobs with much higher education, technical jobs. Considering the ever rising cost of higher education, just how do you suppose all of those displaced middle, and lower working class labourers are going to pay for the retraining that it will take to be eligible for these much more technically advanced careers, assuming that they have any aptitude for such careers in the first place?

 

[TomParks]

The regulations on the cars and trucks will make them too expensive for the average person to buy, and there must be a human at all times in the truck so nothing is really saved.

The myth of plugging in a robot and everything is fine also bogus....these automated machines require constant repairs...it will take a lot of engineers and mechanics to keep everything from breaking down and then there is the hacker issue....

Okay. We're not talking about "average" persons. We're talking about businesses. and, why? Once we have achieved level 5 automation, why would we need a human in the vehicle?

You need a person in the truck incase of hacking and to prevent road pirates from stealing the goods....and of course the truck cant fill up on its own either. Another big factor is weather...a machine doesn't have the natural instincts and reflexes that a human does. From what I read each state will have regulations and some may not allow them on the road at all.

 

[Billy_Kinetta]

I will be living in Mayberry when the robots take over. They won't get past Floyd and Aunt Bea.

 

[Czernobog]

The regulations on the cars and trucks will make them too expensive for the average person to buy, and there must be a human at all times in the truck so nothing is really saved.

The myth of plugging in a robot and everything is fine also bogus....these automated machines require constant repairs...it will take a lot of engineers and mechanics to keep everything from breaking down and then there is the hacker issue....

Okay. We're not talking about "average" persons. We're talking about businesses. and, why? Once we have achieved level 5 automation, why would we need a human in the vehicle?

You need a person in the truck incase of hacking and to prevent road pirates from stealing the goods....and of course the truck cant fill up on its own either. Another big factor is weather...a machine doesn't have the natural instincts and reflexes that a human does. From what I read each state will have regulations and some may not allow them on the road at all.

Certainly, there are going to be regulatory fights. However, if there is one thing that the 20th century has taught me, it's that Corporate America is quite adept at wrangling our government whenever it comes to regulatory fights. And what about all of the other working class fields. A recent article I read, referring the report I mentioned, seems to be indicating that a growing number of our working class labour fields are increasingly being replaced by automated systems. And, I'm not even necessarily saying that this is a "bad" thing. Yay, technology (although your "hacking" observation concerns me a bit...). But, I can't help but think, that as machines are designed that can do more, and more of the work that was traditionally done by human beings the old economic model of the distribution of income via the performance of manual labor just isn't going to work anymore, and we're going to have to figure out a new model, or face the reality of a starving, dying world.

 

[Billy_Kinetta]

The whole concept of robots taking over menial tasks was to free up humans to pursue more noble, intellectual pursuits.

The problem is at least half the country does not have the personal nobility or intellectual background or capacity to pursue such lofty goals.

 

[Czernobog]

The whole concept of robots taking over menial tasks was to free up humans to pursue more noble, intellectual pursuits.

The problem is at least half the country does not have the personal nobility or intellectual background or capacity to pursue such lofty goals.

The problem is more basic than that. Our economy is based on the distribution of income via the performance of manual labor. So, how do you propose that people are going to do silly things like clothe themselves, a feed themselves, and keep a roof over their heads, while they are now pursuing those "loftier, noble pursuits"? Because, let's face it, the whole reason people don't pursue them now, is because they don't "put food on the table".

We still need a new economic model to replace the old one.