Iowa and New Hampshire Won't Matter in 2016

[longknife]

Why? Simple – they always affect how big-money donors are going to spend their $$$$. Stumble in those two and the money dries up.

So – who doesn't worry about that? Could it be the guy who's already financing his own race and doesn't need a penny from any PAC or donor?

Guess who?

This article @ Articles: Why Iowa and New Hampshire won't matter this time points out some very interesting stuff. Watch and see if it's right.

 

[candycorn]

Politically unsophisticated.

There are 3 tickets out of Iowa. Usually 3 out of New Hampshire as well. If anything is different this year; it may be that New Hampshire will cause more folks to drop out than normal. You may be down to 5 candidates after NH.

Having enough money to "stay in the race" is fine; if you have no delegates it doesn't matter.

 

[ScienceRocks]

If trump wins Iowa and New Hamphire he will take everything outside of maybe 100 bible belt delegates.

If Cruz manages Iowa then he opens up south Carolina and some other states...It will take nearly another month before we know who is the nominee.

 

[candycorn]

If trump wins Iowa and New Hamphire he will take everything outside of maybe 100 bible belt delegates.

If Cruz manages Iowa then he opens up south Carolina and some other states...It will take nearly another month before we know who is the nominee.

There won't be a winner until April 1 at the earliest.

There are 2,472 delegates on the GOP side. You need 1,237 to win. By the end of March, exactly 1,500 will be awarded.

If you get hot in the early part of the calendar and avoid gaffes that open the door for others, you can really stomp your opponents. The primaries on 3/15 include Ohio and Florida which are straight WTA states awarding 162--more than 10% right there. Three-hundred and fifty-two are awarded on that day!!!

The only two other days where a candidate can make a splash are well after 4/1; on 4/26 when 163 are awarded out of the NE (NY has it's 92 awarded a week earlier). Then in June, 200+ are awarded right before the convention.

Regardless of how the elections shake out, it's hard to imagine delegates exclaiming their support for Donald Trump on the floor of the convention center; he's been a "republican" for 15 minutes and these folks have basically devoted their lives to the Party. But that is what will take place!!!!


There is a perverse pleasure involved in republicants having to swallow that....

 

[C_Clayton_Jones]

If trump wins Iowa and New Hamphire he will take everything outside of maybe 100 bible belt delegates.

If Cruz manages Iowa then he opens up south Carolina and some other states...It will take nearly another month before we know who is the nominee.

There won't be a winner until April 1 at the earliest.

There are 2,472 delegates on the GOP side. You need 1,237 to win. By the end of March, exactly 1,500 will be awarded.

If you get hot in the early part of the calendar and avoid gaffes that open the door for others, you can really stomp your opponents. The primaries on 3/15 include Ohio and Florida which are straight WTA states awarding 162--more than 10% right there. Three-hundred and fifty-two are awarded on that day!!!

The only two other days where a candidate can make a splash are well after 4/1; on 4/26 when 163 are awarded out of the NE (NY has it's 92 awarded a week earlier). Then in June, 200+ are awarded right before the convention.

Regardless of how the elections shake out, it's hard to imagine delegates exclaiming their support for Donald Trump on the floor of the convention center; he's been a "republican" for 15 minutes and these folks have basically devoted their lives to the Party. But that is what will take place!!!!


There is a perverse pleasure involved in republicants having to swallow that....

This also explains why no one should be surprised if Bush ends up the nominee.

He believes he can win most of the states on Super Tuesday, Texas and Virginia in particular, and win in Ohio and Florida on the 15th.

In essence Bush's strategy is to win republican primaries in blue states, not unlike Romney; indeed, moderate republicans in blue states are likely Bush supporters.

 

[candycorn]

If trump wins Iowa and New Hamphire he will take everything outside of maybe 100 bible belt delegates.

If Cruz manages Iowa then he opens up south Carolina and some other states...It will take nearly another month before we know who is the nominee.

There won't be a winner until April 1 at the earliest.

There are 2,472 delegates on the GOP side. You need 1,237 to win. By the end of March, exactly 1,500 will be awarded.

If you get hot in the early part of the calendar and avoid gaffes that open the door for others, you can really stomp your opponents. The primaries on 3/15 include Ohio and Florida which are straight WTA states awarding 162--more than 10% right there. Three-hundred and fifty-two are awarded on that day!!!

The only two other days where a candidate can make a splash are well after 4/1; on 4/26 when 163 are awarded out of the NE (NY has it's 92 awarded a week earlier). Then in June, 200+ are awarded right before the convention.

Regardless of how the elections shake out, it's hard to imagine delegates exclaiming their support for Donald Trump on the floor of the convention center; he's been a "republican" for 15 minutes and these folks have basically devoted their lives to the Party. But that is what will take place!!!!


There is a perverse pleasure involved in republicants having to swallow that....

This also explains why no one should be surprised if Bush ends up the nominee.

He believes he can win most of the states on Super Tuesday, Texas and Virginia in particular, and win in Ohio and Florida on the 15th.

In essence Bush's strategy is to win republican primaries in blue states, not unlike Romney; indeed, moderate republicans in blue states are likely Bush supporters.

Bush has given no sign that he's got the fire in the belly to run for office

 

[C_Clayton_Jones]

If trump wins Iowa and New Hamphire he will take everything outside of maybe 100 bible belt delegates.

If Cruz manages Iowa then he opens up south Carolina and some other states...It will take nearly another month before we know who is the nominee.

There won't be a winner until April 1 at the earliest.

There are 2,472 delegates on the GOP side. You need 1,237 to win. By the end of March, exactly 1,500 will be awarded.

If you get hot in the early part of the calendar and avoid gaffes that open the door for others, you can really stomp your opponents. The primaries on 3/15 include Ohio and Florida which are straight WTA states awarding 162--more than 10% right there. Three-hundred and fifty-two are awarded on that day!!!

The only two other days where a candidate can make a splash are well after 4/1; on 4/26 when 163 are awarded out of the NE (NY has it's 92 awarded a week earlier). Then in June, 200+ are awarded right before the convention.

Regardless of how the elections shake out, it's hard to imagine delegates exclaiming their support for Donald Trump on the floor of the convention center; he's been a "republican" for 15 minutes and these folks have basically devoted their lives to the Party. But that is what will take place!!!!


There is a perverse pleasure involved in republicants having to swallow that....

This also explains why no one should be surprised if Bush ends up the nominee.

He believes he can win most of the states on Super Tuesday, Texas and Virginia in particular, and win in Ohio and Florida on the 15th.

In essence Bush's strategy is to win republican primaries in blue states, not unlike Romney; indeed, moderate republicans in blue states are likely Bush supporters.

Bush has given no sign that he's got the fire in the belly to run for office

That may be of no consequence – it may come down to a simple process of elimination.

We know that Cruz, Trump, and Carson won't be the nominee, that leaves Rubio and Bush. Bush has the money, state level organization, and support of the silent majority of establishment republicans to beat Rubio.

Republicans are partisan creatures of habit, the notion of installing a Bush regime after Obama leaves office and beating a Clinton in the process will be very attractive to many republicans, and they know they can't win the GE with the likes of Trump or Cruz.

 

[candycorn]

If trump wins Iowa and New Hamphire he will take everything outside of maybe 100 bible belt delegates.

If Cruz manages Iowa then he opens up south Carolina and some other states...It will take nearly another month before we know who is the nominee.

There won't be a winner until April 1 at the earliest.

There are 2,472 delegates on the GOP side. You need 1,237 to win. By the end of March, exactly 1,500 will be awarded.

If you get hot in the early part of the calendar and avoid gaffes that open the door for others, you can really stomp your opponents. The primaries on 3/15 include Ohio and Florida which are straight WTA states awarding 162--more than 10% right there. Three-hundred and fifty-two are awarded on that day!!!

The only two other days where a candidate can make a splash are well after 4/1; on 4/26 when 163 are awarded out of the NE (NY has it's 92 awarded a week earlier). Then in June, 200+ are awarded right before the convention.

Regardless of how the elections shake out, it's hard to imagine delegates exclaiming their support for Donald Trump on the floor of the convention center; he's been a "republican" for 15 minutes and these folks have basically devoted their lives to the Party. But that is what will take place!!!!


There is a perverse pleasure involved in republicants having to swallow that....

This also explains why no one should be surprised if Bush ends up the nominee.

He believes he can win most of the states on Super Tuesday, Texas and Virginia in particular, and win in Ohio and Florida on the 15th.

In essence Bush's strategy is to win republican primaries in blue states, not unlike Romney; indeed, moderate republicans in blue states are likely Bush supporters.

Bush has given no sign that he's got the fire in the belly to run for office

That may be of no consequence – it may come down to a simple process of elimination.

We know that Cruz, Trump, and Carson won't be the nominee, that leaves Rubio and Bush. Bush has the money, state level organization, and support of the silent majority of establishment republicans to beat Rubio.

Republicans are partisan creatures of habit, the notion of installing a Bush regime after Obama leaves office and beating a Clinton in the process will be very attractive to many republicans, and they know they can't win the GE with the likes of Trump or Cruz.

I'm not so sure about that any more. I am 100% Trump won't be the nominee although I think he'll have some delegates. Cruz, if he wins Iowa and SC that sets him up pretty good for March 1 Super Tuesday where you have Texas and a bunch of southern states where his brand of fear mongering is pretty effective. The dumbasses down there will vote for whomever imprssed them most in the last 5 minutes. He could easily have 500 of the 1,237 needed after 3/1. In fact, I would be mildly surprised if he doesn't--provided he wins Iowa and SC.

The conventional wisdom was that Bush and Rubio and Christie would stand up at some point during the latter 2015 or early 16 weeks and act like a leader. Instead, they seem to be in a candidate protection program afraid of getting hurt.

Five hundred is a long way from 1,237 but any institutional Republicans will flock to Cruz before Trump; that is a certainty. If you're Bush or Christie or Rubio, and you drop out, Cruz is 3rd on the list for whom the support would flow but he becomes #2 immediatey.

 

[C_Clayton_Jones]

Republicans know they can't win with Cruz – too extreme, too polarizing, won't be able to attract enough weak democrats to get to 270.

The Illinois primary in 2012 is a good example:

"March 21, 2012

Mitt Romney won the GOP presidential primary in Illinois on Tuesday, walloping rival Rick Santorum in a key state whose voters are a bellwether for Republicans nationwide.

With close to 99 percent of precincts reporting, Romney was leading Santorum by almost 12 percentage points, and victory would allow him to extend his already-imposing lead in the race for delegates."

Romney wins Illinois primary

As with Romney in 2012, the 2016 GOP nominee will be a moderate centrist with the backing of the republican mainstream establishment, earning the nomination by winning in urban areas and blue states – someone like Jeb Bush.

The fundamental problem thus far is to perceive 'winners' and 'leading candidates' based on nothing but subjective, errant opinion polls.

 

[candycorn]

Republicans know they can't win with Cruz – too extreme, too polarizing, won't be able to attract enough weak democrats to get to 270.

The Illinois primary in 2012 is a good example:

"March 21, 2012

Mitt Romney won the GOP presidential primary in Illinois on Tuesday, walloping rival Rick Santorum in a key state whose voters are a bellwether for Republicans nationwide.

With close to 99 percent of precincts reporting, Romney was leading Santorum by almost 12 percentage points, and victory would allow him to extend his already-imposing lead in the race for delegates."

Romney wins Illinois primary

As with Romney in 2012, the 2016 GOP nominee will be a moderate centrist with the backing of the republican mainstream establishment, earning the nomination by winning in urban areas and blue states – someone like Jeb Bush.

The fundamental problem thus far is to perceive 'winners' and 'leading candidates' based on nothing but subjective, errant opinion polls.

You're 100% right. Cruz will get zero independent sniffs much less support. Hillary should simply play dead for 5 months if he is the nominee.

The problem is that if he, Donald Trump or Donald Duck gets the delegates, his name will be put in nomination and the delegates will vote how the states vote.

Now, if the powers-that-be wish to set aside the conventioneer's choice it would be grounds for total bedlam. The GOP congress is polling around 9% right now..... Having total bedlam in prime time is likely not the best way to get those looking in to give them a second look.