Intrade Market Odds

Discussion in 'Congress' started by The Paperboy, Oct 27, 2008.

  1. The Paperboy
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    The Paperboy Times Square

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    If McCain wins and you bought $1,000.00 in "McCain" today how much would you make?
     
  2. Larkinn
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    Larkinn Senior Member

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    Probably 50k or more I would guess.
     
  3. The Paperboy
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    The Paperboy Times Square

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    Hmmmm... have to check the polls tomorrow. :D
     
  4. Larkinn
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    Larkinn Senior Member

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    I'm prolly wrong actually...50k is too high. Maybe 40k? Or 30k? Odds of McCain winning are quite small.
     
  5. Toro
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    Toro Diamond Member

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    The current price to buy a McCain contract is 13.4 cents. That means market participants believe McCain has a 13% chance of winning. Each contract pays $10. Thus, each McCain contract costs $1.34, based on the most recent ask price. That means you could buy 746 contracts on McCain. If McCain won, you would be paid $10 on each contract, meaning your $1000 investment would be worth $7,460 if McCain wins.

    http://www.intrade.com/

    For the record, that is not a bet I would take.
     
  6. DavidS
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    DavidS Anti-Tea Party Member

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    Actually, it's down to 12.4......:eusa_whistle:
     

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