I guess creation of ghost towns is not a great idea.
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India to overtake China as world s fastest growing large economy - Jan. 21 2015
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India to overtake China as world s fastest growing large economy - Jan. 21 2015
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India to overtake China as world's fastest growing large economy
- Thread starter Vikrant
- Start date
China blew their load on Thai hookers....
ScienceRocks
Democrat all the way!
- Banned
- #3
Investing in infrastructure, science, r&d and education = a winner!
I
Indofred
Guest
Another BRICS country doing very well.
Bad news for the Dollar.
Bad news for the Dollar.
I guess creation of ghost towns is not a great idea.
---
India to overtake China as world s fastest growing large economy - Jan. 21 2015
Centralize communists dictatorships equal no trickle down effect.... The poor stay very poor. the wealthy get wealthier, but there's not enough of them to fill those buildings
Another BRICS country doing very well.
Bad news for the Dollar.
The dollar is at multi-year highs against most major currencies, why would this be bad for the dollar?
- Thread starter
- #7
Another BRICS country doing very well.
Bad news for the Dollar.
India and U.S. are moving closer to each other. Barack Obama is in India at the moment. He is a chief guest of honor for India's Republic Day parade. Both India and the U.S. are signing some major deals that involve nuclear reactors (for electricity), joint production of high-tech items, joint investment in alternative energy sources, civilian business deals and so on. This is going to strengthen dollar not weaken it.
I
Indofred
Guest
Another BRICS country doing very well.
Bad news for the Dollar.
India and U.S. are moving closer to each other. Barack Obama is in India at the moment. He is a chief guest of honor for India's Republic Day parade. Both India and the U.S. are signing some major deals that involve nuclear reactors (for electricity), joint production of high-tech items, joint investment in alternative energy sources, civilian business deals and so on. This is going to strengthen dollar not weaken it.
Look up India and Iran's trade.
- Thread starter
- #9
Another BRICS country doing very well.
Bad news for the Dollar.
India and U.S. are moving closer to each other. Barack Obama is in India at the moment. He is a chief guest of honor for India's Republic Day parade. Both India and the U.S. are signing some major deals that involve nuclear reactors (for electricity), joint production of high-tech items, joint investment in alternative energy sources, civilian business deals and so on. This is going to strengthen dollar not weaken it.
Look up India and Iran's trade.
What is the volume of trade between India and Iran? You don't have to but it will be great if you can provide some data.
- Thread starter
- #10
It’s been a long time coming, but India is now growing faster than China.
India’s third quarter GDP — which calculates October to December output — rose 7.5% on the year, compared to 7.3% in China. This follows 8.2% growth in the second quarter and 6.5% in the first, bringing year-to-date growth to 7.4%. By comparison, the Chinese economy is expected to grow by 7.1% this calendar year.
...
India Growth Now Beats China - Forbes
India’s third quarter GDP — which calculates October to December output — rose 7.5% on the year, compared to 7.3% in China. This follows 8.2% growth in the second quarter and 6.5% in the first, bringing year-to-date growth to 7.4%. By comparison, the Chinese economy is expected to grow by 7.1% this calendar year.
...
India Growth Now Beats China - Forbes
- Thread starter
- #11
...
India has done fantastically, so much so that we have been taking some profits off the table. Valuations for some shares are now stretched, but the country is a great “buy and hold” investment. Unlike in China, the Indian government leaves companies to get on with it, so there is more chance for investors to make money.
...
Buy India and avoid China Hugh Young gives his top tips to play Asia - Telegraph
India has done fantastically, so much so that we have been taking some profits off the table. Valuations for some shares are now stretched, but the country is a great “buy and hold” investment. Unlike in China, the Indian government leaves companies to get on with it, so there is more chance for investors to make money.
...
Buy India and avoid China Hugh Young gives his top tips to play Asia - Telegraph
It is bad in the eyes of Ledtytoons who have no idea how currencies work.Another BRICS country doing very well.
Bad news for the Dollar.
The dollar is at multi-year highs against most major currencies, why would this be bad for the dollar?
Delta4Embassy
Gold Member
I guess creation of ghost towns is not a great idea.
---
India to overtake China as world s fastest growing large economy - Jan. 21 2015
India: no population control
China: population control
RoshanNair
VIP Member
I guess creation of ghost towns is not a great idea.
---
India to overtake China as world s fastest growing large economy - Jan. 21 2015
India: no population control
China: population control
China's "population control" is an infringement of inalienable civil liberties. I'd rather India not go down that road and instead focus on educating the rural, illiterate masses about family planning.
- Thread starter
- #15
...
China's GDP growth in 2014 was 7.5% - the slowest pace in 24 years, which represents a new trend of slower growth that has worried investors and businesses.
Even Beijing has shown public concern, which is notable for a government that is usually secretive about such things. Chinese Premier Li Keqiang told China's first parliamentary meeting of 2015 that the growth target for 2015 will be 7%, while stressing some of the country's structural issues.
"Deep-seated problems in the country's economic development are becoming more obvious. The difficulties we are facing this year could be bigger than last year. The new year is a crucial year for deepening all-round reforms," he said.
One of the most important problems is corruption. Senior officials in Beijing have vowed to tackle corruption and some of the largest companies in China, such as Sinopec (NYSE:SHI), have been publicly called out and told to clean up their act.
India Vs. China - Which Will Grow Faster Seeking Alpha
China's GDP growth in 2014 was 7.5% - the slowest pace in 24 years, which represents a new trend of slower growth that has worried investors and businesses.
Even Beijing has shown public concern, which is notable for a government that is usually secretive about such things. Chinese Premier Li Keqiang told China's first parliamentary meeting of 2015 that the growth target for 2015 will be 7%, while stressing some of the country's structural issues.
"Deep-seated problems in the country's economic development are becoming more obvious. The difficulties we are facing this year could be bigger than last year. The new year is a crucial year for deepening all-round reforms," he said.
One of the most important problems is corruption. Senior officials in Beijing have vowed to tackle corruption and some of the largest companies in China, such as Sinopec (NYSE:SHI), have been publicly called out and told to clean up their act.
India Vs. China - Which Will Grow Faster Seeking Alpha
- Thread starter
- #16
NEW DELHI: The Indian economy, whose size is $2 trillion as of now, is poised to overtake the combined GDP of Japan and Germany in the next four years on the back of recent policy reforms and improved business confidence in the country, IMF chief Christine Lagarde said today.
"Indeed, a brighter future is being forged right before your eyes. By 2019, the economy will more than double in size compared to 2009. When adjusting for differences in purchase prices between economies, India ..
Read more at:
India s GDP will be bigger than Japan Germany combined in 4 years IMF - The Economic Times
"Indeed, a brighter future is being forged right before your eyes. By 2019, the economy will more than double in size compared to 2009. When adjusting for differences in purchase prices between economies, India ..
Read more at:
India s GDP will be bigger than Japan Germany combined in 4 years IMF - The Economic Times
- Thread starter
- #17
The Asian Development Bank also agrees, India is outpacing China.
The Asian Development Bank became the latest big global organization to shift its economic output forecasts to show India outpacing China this year.
In its Asian Development Outlook 2015, the Manila-based multilateral lender predicts India’s gross domestic product will expand 7.8% in the fiscal year that starts next month. That is well above the ADB’s expectation of 7.2% GDP growth in China this calendar year.
India’s zoom past China to become the world’s fastest-growing big economy is largely due to recent radical revisions in how it calculates GDP figures, but it also shows how China is slowing just as the South Asian nation seems to be gaining momentum.
“India is expected to grow faster than the People’s Republic of China in the next few years,” said ADB chief economist Shang-Jin Wei. “The government’s pro-investment attitude, improvements in the fiscal and current-account deficits and some forward movement on resolving structural bottlenecks have helped improve the business climate and make India attractive again to both domestic and foreign investors.”
The ADB report predicts that India will increase its lead over China next year, expanding 8.2% while China’s output grows 7%.
Despite the report’s optimism about India, its forecast was below New Delhi’s official GDP-growth projection of between 8.1% and 8.5% for the year ending March 31, 2016.
...
The Asian Development Bank Agrees India Is Outpacing China - India Real Time - WSJ
The Asian Development Bank became the latest big global organization to shift its economic output forecasts to show India outpacing China this year.
In its Asian Development Outlook 2015, the Manila-based multilateral lender predicts India’s gross domestic product will expand 7.8% in the fiscal year that starts next month. That is well above the ADB’s expectation of 7.2% GDP growth in China this calendar year.
India’s zoom past China to become the world’s fastest-growing big economy is largely due to recent radical revisions in how it calculates GDP figures, but it also shows how China is slowing just as the South Asian nation seems to be gaining momentum.
“India is expected to grow faster than the People’s Republic of China in the next few years,” said ADB chief economist Shang-Jin Wei. “The government’s pro-investment attitude, improvements in the fiscal and current-account deficits and some forward movement on resolving structural bottlenecks have helped improve the business climate and make India attractive again to both domestic and foreign investors.”
The ADB report predicts that India will increase its lead over China next year, expanding 8.2% while China’s output grows 7%.
Despite the report’s optimism about India, its forecast was below New Delhi’s official GDP-growth projection of between 8.1% and 8.5% for the year ending March 31, 2016.
...
The Asian Development Bank Agrees India Is Outpacing China - India Real Time - WSJ
- Thread starter
- #18
In the graph (check below) Indian rupee can be counted amongst the outperformers. Indian rupee has only depreciated by 1% but if it was not for $35 billion purchases in the spot markets and some more through the forward market, rupee would have appreciated instead of depreciating. Indian economy is an interesting mix of many drivers. On one hand, there are people in rural and urban areas who derive their livelihood from production and mining of commodities and processing of same and on the other there are vast populations whose livelihood is not directly dependent on commodity prices. At the same time, lower oil prices help the government to lower its deficit and country to export less of foreign currency. This interesting mix in the economy has enabled India to stand out in this commodity carnage. We also need to thank the central bank, who after a decade or so has refocused on maintaining a healthy spread of interest rates over retail inflation (a real return on savings for the capital saver). High real rates and strong control over money supply has made Rupee an interesting bet. Add to that the singular focus of RBI to destroy any sign of volatility. Would not the world, awash with artificial liquidity and running out of sensible risk adjusted investible assets, gun for such a “slum-dunk” trade.
US dollar vs rest Indian rupee amongst the outperformers The Financial Express
US dollar vs rest Indian rupee amongst the outperformers The Financial Express
- Thread starter
- #19
How seriously will China's economic slowdown affect the global economy? Stock markets around the world, including India's, have reacted with deep panic.
China's GDP growth in 2015-16 could dip to as low as five per cent - the lowest in decades. The yuan has so far fallen by less than four per cent but the housing and banking bubble in China could drive it down further. The Shanghai Composite index continued to skid on Tuesday (August 25), falling below the crucial 3,000 mark.
With Chinese demand slowing, steel, cement, auto and other Indian exports could face a domino effect as China cuts down on imports. The governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), Dr Raghuram Rajan, is not a naturally grim man. But his prescription for the Indian economy has often been grim. However, after Monday's global stock market crash, he said India was in "a good condition" compared to other economies. He added that the RBI would not hesitate to defend a falling rupee.
Dr Rajan, chief economist at the International Monetary Fund from 2003 to 2007, made his global reputation by predicting the financial meltdown of 2008. To turn adversity into opportunity, both the RBI and the finance ministry must now think out of the box. India's economy, as finance minister Arun Jaitley said on Black Monday, remains robust. Tax collections are up 37 per cent and industrial production is rising steadily. Cheaper global commodity prices will help reduce input costs of finished Indian products though a weak rupee will neutralise some of that advantage.
Dr Rajan's term, which ends in September 2016, has been controversial. His singleminded focus has been to control inflation. By keeping monetary policy tight and interest rates high, Dr Rajan has squeezed consumer inflation down to below four per cent and wholesale inflation into negative territory: (-) four per cent.
The RBI has cut rates thrice in the past year by a parsimonious 25 basis points (0.25 per cent) each. That's clearly too little, too late. An impetus to Indian GDP growth needs at least two factors: one, more corporate investment; and two, higher consumer consumption.
Lower interest rates would cut corporate debt and interest outgo. Company profits would rise. Corporate investment across sectors - from infrastructure to health - would increase sharply, setting off a virtuous cycle of economic growth.
Simultaneously, lower interest rates would cut EMIs on home, car, scooter, tractor and consumer loans, putting more money into peoples' hands. Consumption would get a boost. Fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies complain of subdued demand. The automotive industry too has shown slow growth. Lower interest rates would catalyse demand across urban and rural India.
Once consumer demand picks up though, some economists warn, inflation could again rise. Not, however, if the supply-side is taken care of - ie, increased output in manufacturing and services following lower corporate debt and interest outgo. Lower interest rates would strengthen company balance sheets, enabling them to borrow from banks (which are shortly to be recapitalised). A combination of higher consumer demand and increased corporate investment will lead to a spike in manufacturing and get the economy back to an eight per cent growth trajectory.
Moody's has lowered its India growth forecast to seven per cent from the earlier 7.5 per cent. It cities uncertain global conditions and lack of economic reforms. By pursuing a more balanced monetary policy that places equal importance on controlling inflation and spurring economic growth, India can escape a deflationary cycle - low inflation, low growth - which Japan and much of Europe are battling.
The United States Federal Reserve has used low interest rates for several years to spur growth and jobs, create new manufacturing assets and keep inflation down. As a result, the US economy today is in the best shape it has been in seven years - low unemployment, steady GDP growth and moderate inflation.
Obviously, with the dollar as the world's reserve currency the US can print money at will. However, the Federal Reserve has consistently shown toughness, flexibility and pragmatism in getting the US economy back on its feet after the financial meltdown of 2008.
India's foreign exchange reserves are at a comfortable $355 billion, covering nine months of imports. Companies with dollar debt, however, will face a crunch: the rupee has depreciated by 13.9 per cent against the dollar in 2015-16. This makes lower interest rates to cut corporate debt even more imperative.
This is a crucial time for the Indian economy. With exports falling for eight consecutive months, largely due to global demand contraction, the trade deficit has remained stubbornly over $100 billion. Oil prices are trending below $40 per barrel. Once extra Iranian crude (an estimated 5,00,000 barrels per day) comes into the market following the gradual withdrawal of Western sanctions, oil prices could remain at these depressed levels for at least two years till global demand increases.
...
India's Chinese takeaway: Turning adversity into opportunity
China's GDP growth in 2015-16 could dip to as low as five per cent - the lowest in decades. The yuan has so far fallen by less than four per cent but the housing and banking bubble in China could drive it down further. The Shanghai Composite index continued to skid on Tuesday (August 25), falling below the crucial 3,000 mark.
With Chinese demand slowing, steel, cement, auto and other Indian exports could face a domino effect as China cuts down on imports. The governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), Dr Raghuram Rajan, is not a naturally grim man. But his prescription for the Indian economy has often been grim. However, after Monday's global stock market crash, he said India was in "a good condition" compared to other economies. He added that the RBI would not hesitate to defend a falling rupee.
Dr Rajan, chief economist at the International Monetary Fund from 2003 to 2007, made his global reputation by predicting the financial meltdown of 2008. To turn adversity into opportunity, both the RBI and the finance ministry must now think out of the box. India's economy, as finance minister Arun Jaitley said on Black Monday, remains robust. Tax collections are up 37 per cent and industrial production is rising steadily. Cheaper global commodity prices will help reduce input costs of finished Indian products though a weak rupee will neutralise some of that advantage.
Dr Rajan's term, which ends in September 2016, has been controversial. His singleminded focus has been to control inflation. By keeping monetary policy tight and interest rates high, Dr Rajan has squeezed consumer inflation down to below four per cent and wholesale inflation into negative territory: (-) four per cent.
The RBI has cut rates thrice in the past year by a parsimonious 25 basis points (0.25 per cent) each. That's clearly too little, too late. An impetus to Indian GDP growth needs at least two factors: one, more corporate investment; and two, higher consumer consumption.
Lower interest rates would cut corporate debt and interest outgo. Company profits would rise. Corporate investment across sectors - from infrastructure to health - would increase sharply, setting off a virtuous cycle of economic growth.
Simultaneously, lower interest rates would cut EMIs on home, car, scooter, tractor and consumer loans, putting more money into peoples' hands. Consumption would get a boost. Fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies complain of subdued demand. The automotive industry too has shown slow growth. Lower interest rates would catalyse demand across urban and rural India.
Once consumer demand picks up though, some economists warn, inflation could again rise. Not, however, if the supply-side is taken care of - ie, increased output in manufacturing and services following lower corporate debt and interest outgo. Lower interest rates would strengthen company balance sheets, enabling them to borrow from banks (which are shortly to be recapitalised). A combination of higher consumer demand and increased corporate investment will lead to a spike in manufacturing and get the economy back to an eight per cent growth trajectory.
Moody's has lowered its India growth forecast to seven per cent from the earlier 7.5 per cent. It cities uncertain global conditions and lack of economic reforms. By pursuing a more balanced monetary policy that places equal importance on controlling inflation and spurring economic growth, India can escape a deflationary cycle - low inflation, low growth - which Japan and much of Europe are battling.
The United States Federal Reserve has used low interest rates for several years to spur growth and jobs, create new manufacturing assets and keep inflation down. As a result, the US economy today is in the best shape it has been in seven years - low unemployment, steady GDP growth and moderate inflation.
Obviously, with the dollar as the world's reserve currency the US can print money at will. However, the Federal Reserve has consistently shown toughness, flexibility and pragmatism in getting the US economy back on its feet after the financial meltdown of 2008.
India's foreign exchange reserves are at a comfortable $355 billion, covering nine months of imports. Companies with dollar debt, however, will face a crunch: the rupee has depreciated by 13.9 per cent against the dollar in 2015-16. This makes lower interest rates to cut corporate debt even more imperative.
This is a crucial time for the Indian economy. With exports falling for eight consecutive months, largely due to global demand contraction, the trade deficit has remained stubbornly over $100 billion. Oil prices are trending below $40 per barrel. Once extra Iranian crude (an estimated 5,00,000 barrels per day) comes into the market following the gradual withdrawal of Western sanctions, oil prices could remain at these depressed levels for at least two years till global demand increases.
...
India's Chinese takeaway: Turning adversity into opportunity
- Thread starter
- #20
...
Taking a look at India, Indian stocks have been exhibiting contrasting behavior relative to other stock markets for some time now. In fact, the correlation between MSCI Emerging Markets 891800, -1.60% and MSCI India INDA, -3.36% has been -0.05 for the past year. Furthermore, the correlation of MSCI India with MSCI US has been only -0.11. This negative correlation between Indian stocks and other major global markets provides investors a very good diversification benefit.
While Indian stocks have fallen by 9% this year due partly to the plummeting Chinese equity markets, Indian companies have withstood the slowing global economic environment extremely well compared to other emerging markets. For example, the MSCI Emerging Markets index has dropped around 27% during the same period.
The slowdown in China has resulted in the collapse of commodity prices, and this slowdown has adversely impacted commodity-exporting countries such as Brazil and Russia. The MSCI Brazil and MSCI Russia are down by 53% and 40% respectively over the last 12 months.
The Chinese meltdown has also affected emerging economies like Korea and Taiwan that are dependent on exports to Chinese consumers. The MSCI Korea and MSCI Taiwan are down by 30% and 22% respectively over the last 12 months. Finally, the depreciation of the yuan has raised doubts on emerging economies who compete with Chinese exports.
Meanwhile, India is heavily dependent on imported commodities, with crude oil accounting for about 34% and gold and silver comprising 12% of the total imports. India imports 80% of its oil, and if the price of oil CLV5, -2.10% continues to decline, a fall of one dollar per barrel saves the country around $40 billion.
We estimate that if crude oil drops by $10 a barrel, India’s trade deficit will contract by 0.5% and its fiscal deficit will contract by approximately 0.1% of gross domestic product. Hence, falling commodity prices are a blessing for India, resulting in lower inflation and leading to lower interest rates.
Government initiatives like “Make in India” will encourage foreign companies to manufacture their products in India by nurturing innovation, developing skills and providing strong legal intellectual property protection. This initiative is boosting the manufacturing sector and growth of homegrown innovative companies like Flipkart, SnapDeal and Ola Cabs and provides incentives for foreign investors.
Considering these ongoing developments, consumer confidence has elevated to a new level, and has increased the buying power of Indian consumers. Clearly the growth story of India is a reality.
Japanese brokerage Nomura has projected Indian GDP growth at 8% in fiscal year 2016 while retaining its target for the Sensex 1, -2.18% at 33,500 by December.
The head of the Indian central bank, Gov. Raghuram Rajan, has stated that with currency reserves of over $380 billion, India is well equipped to support the value of the rupee USDINR, +0.8847% . The fall in commodity prices, especially oil, has helped India get inflation down to 3.8% from the crippling double-digit inflation levels in 2013.
Investors who would like to participate in India’s exponential growth might consider: iShares MSCI India ETF INDA, -3.60% , which tracks the MSCI India Index; Market Vectors India Small-Cap ETF SCIF, -4.21% , which tracks the most liquid small-cap stocks; and Wisdom Tree India Earnings Fund EPI, -4.00% , which tracks the stocks of profitable Indian companies.
In conclusion, the Indian economy has showcased its strength and resilience to face the global economic weakness with its strong contrasting behavior during the Chinese market meltdown.
India, with its high GDP growth, reassuring macroeconomic factors, and billion-plus consumers, can provide the world an economic strength that is well-equipped to not only surpass China’s GDP growth but also boost the global economy.
As investors flee China, they should consider India
Taking a look at India, Indian stocks have been exhibiting contrasting behavior relative to other stock markets for some time now. In fact, the correlation between MSCI Emerging Markets 891800, -1.60% and MSCI India INDA, -3.36% has been -0.05 for the past year. Furthermore, the correlation of MSCI India with MSCI US has been only -0.11. This negative correlation between Indian stocks and other major global markets provides investors a very good diversification benefit.
While Indian stocks have fallen by 9% this year due partly to the plummeting Chinese equity markets, Indian companies have withstood the slowing global economic environment extremely well compared to other emerging markets. For example, the MSCI Emerging Markets index has dropped around 27% during the same period.
The slowdown in China has resulted in the collapse of commodity prices, and this slowdown has adversely impacted commodity-exporting countries such as Brazil and Russia. The MSCI Brazil and MSCI Russia are down by 53% and 40% respectively over the last 12 months.
The Chinese meltdown has also affected emerging economies like Korea and Taiwan that are dependent on exports to Chinese consumers. The MSCI Korea and MSCI Taiwan are down by 30% and 22% respectively over the last 12 months. Finally, the depreciation of the yuan has raised doubts on emerging economies who compete with Chinese exports.
Meanwhile, India is heavily dependent on imported commodities, with crude oil accounting for about 34% and gold and silver comprising 12% of the total imports. India imports 80% of its oil, and if the price of oil CLV5, -2.10% continues to decline, a fall of one dollar per barrel saves the country around $40 billion.
We estimate that if crude oil drops by $10 a barrel, India’s trade deficit will contract by 0.5% and its fiscal deficit will contract by approximately 0.1% of gross domestic product. Hence, falling commodity prices are a blessing for India, resulting in lower inflation and leading to lower interest rates.
Government initiatives like “Make in India” will encourage foreign companies to manufacture their products in India by nurturing innovation, developing skills and providing strong legal intellectual property protection. This initiative is boosting the manufacturing sector and growth of homegrown innovative companies like Flipkart, SnapDeal and Ola Cabs and provides incentives for foreign investors.
Considering these ongoing developments, consumer confidence has elevated to a new level, and has increased the buying power of Indian consumers. Clearly the growth story of India is a reality.
Japanese brokerage Nomura has projected Indian GDP growth at 8% in fiscal year 2016 while retaining its target for the Sensex 1, -2.18% at 33,500 by December.
The head of the Indian central bank, Gov. Raghuram Rajan, has stated that with currency reserves of over $380 billion, India is well equipped to support the value of the rupee USDINR, +0.8847% . The fall in commodity prices, especially oil, has helped India get inflation down to 3.8% from the crippling double-digit inflation levels in 2013.
Investors who would like to participate in India’s exponential growth might consider: iShares MSCI India ETF INDA, -3.60% , which tracks the MSCI India Index; Market Vectors India Small-Cap ETF SCIF, -4.21% , which tracks the most liquid small-cap stocks; and Wisdom Tree India Earnings Fund EPI, -4.00% , which tracks the stocks of profitable Indian companies.
In conclusion, the Indian economy has showcased its strength and resilience to face the global economic weakness with its strong contrasting behavior during the Chinese market meltdown.
India, with its high GDP growth, reassuring macroeconomic factors, and billion-plus consumers, can provide the world an economic strength that is well-equipped to not only surpass China’s GDP growth but also boost the global economy.
As investors flee China, they should consider India
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