Increasing Unemployment = Recovery?

[8537]

Memo: Keyesian economics is a fail. 2/1991 You didn't get it did you?

Indeed, Alan Keyes economic plan is pure shit fail.

or perhaps you meant Keynesian. Tell me, saveliberty, how is Keynesian economics a failure? Some specifics would be helpful.

Yep typo. Keynesian. You might want to read up on Milton Friedman, Keynesian turned opponent.

He theorized there existed a "natural rate of unemployment" and he argued the central government could not micromanage the economy because people would realize what the government was doing and change their behavior to neutralize such policies. He rejected the Phillips Curve and predicted that Keynesian policies then existing would cause "stagflation" (high inflation and minimal growth).[4] Friedman's claim that monetary policy could have prevented the Great Depression was an attempt to refute the analysis of Keynes, who argued that monetary policy is ineffective during depression conditions and that fiscal policy — large-scale deficit spending by the government — is needed to decrease mass unemployment.

Milton Friedman - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

You might want to read up on the experience of the US economy when it employed a monetarist Federal Reserve policy and pegged the money supply instead of interest rates.

And Keynes was right, of course, that traditional monetary policy is ineffective during a period of suboptimal employment. It's called a liquidity trap and we find ourselves in one right now.

He was also right when he demonstrated that movements in capital markets during a crisis are not based on rational modeling but instead on mentalities that magnify the problems instead of preventing them.

and he was right that the interest rates are not determined only by the supply and demand for goods but also by the changing desires of people to hold cash.

 

[boedicca]

Is this the newest form of doublespeak?

How the hell does increasing unemployment demonstrate a recovery? Is anyone seriously believing this?

Are we so desperate for a recovery that we're going to actively repress our reason and logic to make-believe it true?

Yes, it is Orwellian Double Speak.

Unemployment is a lagging indicator - so there is a basis to claim that worsening unemployment means we've bottomed out and can begin a recovery in earnest. In this case, the dropping GDP growth rates this year (1.6% in Q2, the forecast for Q3 not any better), bely a claim that unemployment reflects the recovery. We are not seeing millions of people return to the workforce to look for jobs. Quite the contrary - millions have dropped out. The labor force participation rate is only 64.7, which is .5 below where it was before the Recovery Summer.

Recovery Summer = Endless Bummer

 

[saveliberty]

Its vacation stupid - BHO

Its jobs stupid - a waiting nation

 

[CrusaderFrank]

I think they must be counting all of the people who traveled with to Spain Michelle

 

[Toro]

Stock market thinks its a recovery. Or at least its no longer a recession. All the data released the past three days caused the stock market to have one of its best three days ever.

 

[boedicca]

The stock market thinks the GOP will win the House in November. The worse the economy gets before the election, the better the stock market will be in anticipation of a Democrat Slaughter.

 

[eagleseven]

If we have a "double-dip" with no job recovery between dips, is it a single dip?

 

[8537]

If we have a "double-dip" with no job recovery between dips, is it a single dip?

We've had a recovery between dips. The economy has grown for four straight quarters and it is larger in nominal dollars than it was at the last peak.

 

[8537]

The stock market thinks the GOP will win the House in November. The worse the economy gets before the election, the better the stock market will be in anticipation of a Democrat Slaughter.

So how'd we get from 7000 to 10,000?

 

[Flopper]

Is this the newest form of doublespeak?

How the hell does increasing unemployment demonstrate a recovery? Is anyone seriously believing this?

Are we so desperate for a recovery that we're going to actively repress our reason and logic to make-believe it true?

2010-01 9.70
2010-02 9.70
2010-03 9.70
2010-04 9.90
2010-05 9.70
2010-06 9.50
2010-07 9.50
2010-08 9.60

Up or down depends on the time frame. It hasn't fallen significantly since last fall.
The United States Unemployment Rate

 

[boedicca]

If we have a "double-dip" with no job recovery between dips, is it a single dip?

We've had a recovery between dips. The economy has grown for four straight quarters and it is larger in nominal dollars than it was at the last peak.

The average GDP growth for the Obama recover is 3% - that 's about how much we need to keep unemployment flat based on population growth.

Contrast that 3% with the average GDP growth of 7.7% during the Reagan Recovery.

What's the difference: Reagan' policies encouraged real private sector growth that creates jobs. Obama's just props up the bloated government that cause the problems in the first place.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Is this the newest form of doublespeak?

How the hell does increasing unemployment demonstrate a recovery? Is anyone seriously believing this?

Are we so desperate for a recovery that we're going to actively repress our reason and logic to make-believe it true?

2010-01 9.70
2010-02 9.70
2010-03 9.70
2010-04 9.90
2010-05 9.70
2010-06 9.50
2010-07 9.50
2010-08 9.60

Up or down depends on the time frame. It hasn't fallen significantly since last fall.
The United States Unemployment Rate

What happened to we need to spend $850B in Stimulus to keep it under 8%?

 

[boedicca]

According to Romer, we should have spent $1.2T, although she also admits that they have no idea how to really forecast anything cuz it's complicated.

 

[8537]

If we have a "double-dip" with no job recovery between dips, is it a single dip?

We've had a recovery between dips. The economy has grown for four straight quarters and it is larger in nominal dollars than it was at the last peak.

The average GDP growth for the Obama recover is 3% - that 's about how much we need to keep unemployment flat based on population growth.

Contrast that 3% with the average GDP growth of 7.7% during the Reagan Recovery.

Eh, you mean after the second recession under Reagan? Perhaps Reagan isn't a good comparison in light of the strong double-dip we experienced then.

What's the difference: Reagan' policies encouraged real private sector growth that creates jobs. Obama's just props up the bloated government that cause the problems in the first place.

You mean after more than two years in office? It's interesting you mention government jobs vs. private sector. I presume you realize government jobs have been shrinking in recent months while private sector has been growing....right?

 

[CrusaderFrank]

What the engine of growth driving the economy? Real Estate? Finance? Saving from switching to ObamaCare? Census workers?

 

[8537]

What the engine of growth driving the economy? Real Estate? Finance? Saving from switching to ObamaCare? Census workers?

Right now, it's being led by personal consumption and non-residential investment.

 

[boedicca]

We've had a recovery between dips. The economy has grown for four straight quarters and it is larger in nominal dollars than it was at the last peak.

The average GDP growth for the Obama recover is 3% - that 's about how much we need to keep unemployment flat based on population growth.

Contrast that 3% with the average GDP growth of 7.7% during the Reagan Recovery.

Eh, you mean after the second recession under Reagan? Perhaps Reagan isn't a good comparison in light of the strong double-dip we experienced then.

What's the difference: Reagan' policies encouraged real private sector growth that creates jobs. Obama's just props up the bloated government that cause the problems in the first place.

You mean after more than two years in office? It's interesting you mention government jobs vs. private sector. I presume you realize government jobs have been shrinking in recent months while private sector has been growing....right?

Government jobs are shrinking after being temporarily inflated with 1.2M census related jobs.

The private sector should be generating 250K+ jobs per month by now. Obamanomics has killed job creation.

As to the Reagan Recovery, I'm talking about the one after the Volcker Money Supply Contraction which reduced inflation from the 13.6% Carteresque level to 3.2% in 1983. The recession ended high inflation, after which the tax cuts that went into effect in 1983 fueled an significant economic expansion.

Inflation and Unemployment are two of the key metrics by which a President's policies are judged. The combined change of the two indicate whether the "Misery" has increased or dropped. On this scale, Reagan was a raging success - and Obama is a Fail on his way to being an Epic Fail. Inflation is negligible, which makes the incompetency of Obama's policies even worse.

The United States Misery Index By President

 

[Middleman]

I think that some argue that, after drastic layoffs by strapped companies, they are once again turning a profit and able to pay dividends. Therefore, they count that as part of a recovery. But all those pesky, expensive workers are now unemployed, darn it! But, profits are up for stockholders, and upper management gets a bonus.

 

[uscitizen]

umm prices going up seem to be the only thing that is recovering and increasing corporate profits.

 

[boedicca]

Well duh. Obamanomics is going to end up in Stagflation. The Fed grossly expanded the money supply with nearly free money to the banking system. That money is now seeking commodity assets as Treasuries are forming a bubble.