IMF: peak is here

[JiggsCasey]

In case you missed it.

IMF warns oil growing scarce, most costly.


The first pillar of global empire has finally come out and admitted what they've known about for years. What WE have known since May of 2001, when a US administration hid domestic energy policy from the American people -- all the way to the Supreme Court.

Will the others follow suit, or keep up the charade? World Bank? USAID?

Anyone taking odds on the DOW up or down today?

 

[KissMy]

*yawn*

 

[JiggsCasey]

lol

 

[Douger]

Clusterfuck Nation: Comment on Current Events by the Author of "The Long Emergency"

 

[editec]

In case you missed it.

IMF warns oil growing scarce, most costly.


The first pillar of global empire has finally come out and admitted what they've known about for years. What WE have known since May of 2001, when a US administration hid domestic energy policy from the American people -- all the way to the Supreme Court.

Will the others follow suit, or keep up the charade? World Bank? USAID?

Anyone taking odds on the DOW up or down today?

This is but ONE of the multiple problems this economy is facing. Oil isn't growing scarce, but the demand for oil is growing worldwide so oil is getting more expensive.

Add to that the fact that the USD is crashing like a stone, and the prioce of all imports will continue to rise.

 

[KissMy]

This is but ONE of the multiple problems this economy is facing. Oil isn't growing scarce, but the demand for oil is growing worldwide so oil is getting more expensive.

Add to that the fact that the USD is crashing like a stone, and the prioce of all imports will continue to rise.

Not only will import price rise but all necessary & transportable commodities are rising due to the falling dollar. If it is needed & can be shipped to other countries the price is going up. Cotton is up over 300%, Corn is up the same, Oil is up the same, Steel, Copper, Aluminum, Gold, Silver, Coal, Wheat, Soybeans, Lumber, Paper, Fertilizer, etc is all way up & climbing. Commodities flow to the highest bidder in global trading & our US Dollar is getting weaker & weaker.

 

[Mr. H.]

Oil prices will soon crater, just as they did recently from $140 to $30.
The hydrocarbon energy is out there. It's just a matter of commiting to its development and use.

 

[KissMy]

Oil prices will soon crater, just as they did recently from $140 to $30.
The hydrocarbon energy is out there. It's just a matter of commiting to its development and use.

I don't know about that. Last time prices climbed because oil commodity investors were hoarding oil in tankers (floating storage) offshore & hidden out of inventory. It came flooding ashore when Bush opened the OCS to drilling. Currently the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BIDY) is much lower than back then & falling. That indicates to me that price will not crater again.

 

[Mr. H.]

I see. Interesting.
Time will tell, I suppose.

 

[JiggsCasey]

Oil isn't growing scarce

It's right in the headline, and throughout the story.

So the IMF is lying? Or just misinformed? If the former, for what purpose? If the latter, based on what data?

 

[JiggsCasey]

Oil prices will soon crater, just as they did recently from $140 to $30.
The hydrocarbon energy is out there. It's just a matter of commiting to its development and use.

I don't know about that. Last time prices climbed because oil commodity investors were hoarding oil in tankers (floating storage) offshore & hidden out of inventory. It came flooding ashore when Bush opened the OCS to drilling. Currently the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BIDY) is much lower than back then & falling. That indicates to me that price will not crater again.

That's not why prices spiked. We've been over this.

Wider term, prices have been rising steadily for a decade. It all has next to nothing to do with "floating storage." Be real please.

 

[RGR]

In case you missed it.

The first pillar of global empire has finally come out and admitted what they've known about for years. What WE have known since May of 2001, when a US administration hid domestic energy policy from the American people -- all the way to the Supreme Court.

Will the others follow suit, or keep up the charade? World Bank? USAID?

Anyone taking odds on the DOW up or down today?

What moron would confuse day to day market variation with Jiggsy looking for religious signs in the MSM? Hey Jiggsy, it will be a full moon soon, then you can go outside and howl at it!

 

[RGR]

Clusterfuck Nation: Comment on Current Events by the Author of "The Long Emergency"

I would venture that Kunstler is one of those Peak Oil Prophets that Jiggsy spends all his time parroting...and oh yeah...the market didn't hit 4000 by the end of 2010 either....poor Kunstler...another prediction gone awry. Anyone notice that Y2K didn't end the world like Jimmy said it would? Who would have thunk it!

 

[RGR]

Oil isn't growing scarce

It's right in the headline, and throughout the story.

The keyword being "story". A "story" which started in at least 1886 when the world was running out of oil, and continues to this day.

 

[KissMy]

- “I take this opportunity to express my opinion in the strongest terms, that the amazing exhibition of oil which has characterized the last twenty, and will probably characterize the next ten or twenty years, is nevertheless, not only geologically but historically, a temporary and vanishing phenomenon – one which young men will live to see come to its natural end” (1886, J.P. Lesley, state geologist of Pennsylvania).

- “There is little or no chance for more oil in California” (1886, U.S. Geological Survey).

- “There is little or no chance for more oil in Kansas and Texas” (1891, U.S. Geological Survey).

- “Total future production limit of 5.7 billion barrels of oil, perhaps a ten-year supply” (1914, U.S. Bureau of Mines).

- "Within the next two to five years the oil fields of this country will reach their maximum production, and from that time on we will face an ever-increasing decline." (1919 director of the U.S. Bureau of Mines)

- "Oil shales in Colorado and Utah would be exploited to produce oil, because the demand for oil could not be met by existing production." (1919 National Geographic magazine)

- "The time is, indeed, well in sight, when the United States will be nearing the end of some of its available stocks of raw materials on which her industrial supremacy has been largely built. America is running through her stores of domestic oil and is obliged to look abroad for future reserves. (September 1919, E. Mackay Edgar, in Sperling's Journal)

- "The position of the United States in regard to oil can best be characterized as precarious." (January 1920 Dr. George Otis Smith, Director of the United States Geological Survey)

- "Americans will have to depend on foreign sources or use less oil, or perhaps both." (May 1920 Dr. George Otis Smith, Director of the United States Geological Survey)

- "On the whole, therefore, we must expect that, unless our consumption is checked, we shall by 1925 be dependent on foreign oil fields to the extent of 150,000,000 barrels and possibly as much as 200,000,000 of crude each year, except insofar as the situation may at that time, perhaps, be helped to a slight extent by shale oil. Add to this probability that within 5 years--perhaps 3 years only--our domestic production will begin to fall off with increasing rapidity, due to the exhaustion of our reserves" (1920 David White, United States Geological Survey)

- During the period 1919-22, imports of crude oil from Mexico had been large--equal to 22 percent of total United States consumption in 1921. But salt water began to appear in some Mexican wells, and by 1921 geologists were debating whether Mexican production was not "through." in commenting upon the Mexican situation. "A great slump in Mexican production seems sooner or later inevitable. Thus there was not only alarm about the United States oil potential but also about our primary foreign source of supply. Lendling encouragement to these doubts were statements appearing in foreign publications describing the United States oil position." (1921, David White of the United States Geological Survey)

- "Given a resumption of trade and the consequent demand for oil products in, at the most, a year or two, the world will be confronted with an oil shortage such as has never been experienced before. (1921, E. Mackay Edgar)

- “Reserves to last only thirteen years” (1939, Department of the Interior).

- “Reserves to last thirteen years” (1951, Department of the Interior, Oil and Gas Division).

- “We could use up all of the proven reserves of oil in the entire world by the end of the next decade” (President Jimmy Carter speaking in 1978 to the entire world).

- “At the present rate of use, it is estimated that coal reserves will last 200 more years. Petroleum may run out in 20 to 30 years, and natural gas may last only another 70 years” (Ralph M. Feather, Merrill textbook Science Connections Annotated Teacher’s Version, 1990, p. 493).

- “At the current rate of consumption, some scientists estimate that the world’s known supplies of oil … will be used up within your lifetime” (1993, The United States and its People).

- “The supply of fossil fuels is being used up at an alarming rate. Governments must help save our fossil fuel supply by passing laws limiting their use” (Merrill/Glenco textbook, Biology, An Everyday Experience, 1992).

Quotes like these could fill a thousand pages easily. _PeakOil?

One interesting example of a big oil find in the midst of "an exhausted field" occurred in Kern County, California. Kern River Oil Field was discovered in 1899, and initially it was thought that only 10 percent of its heavy, viscous crude could be recovered. In 1942, after more than four decades of modest production, the field was estimated to still hold 54 million barrels of recoverable oil. As pointed out in 1995 by Morris Adelman, professor emeritus at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and one of the few remaining energy gurus, “in the next forty-four years, it produced not 54 million barrels but 736 million barrels, and it had another 970 million barrels remaining.” But even this estimate was wrong. In November 2007 U.S. oil giant Chevron announced that cumulative production had reached two billion barrels. Today, Kern River still puts out more than 80,000 barrels per day, and Chevron reckons that the remaining reserves are about 480 million barrels.

"Proven Reserves" are those that can be produced "economically." But the definitions of economical production are constantly changing, as the technology (and the politics eg, Iraq) changes.

And then there are the "unconventionals," such as heavy oils, oil sands, oil shales, coal to liquids, gas to liquids, and biomass to liquids. A doomer will not even stoop to discuss this 50 ton gorilla in the room, but any good economist would be forced to consider them.
The cost of oil comes down to the cost of finding, and then lifting or extracting. First, you have to decide where to dig. Exploration costs currently run under $3 per barrel in much of the Mideast, and below $7 for oil hidden deep under the ocean. But these costs have been falling, not rising, because imaging technology that lets geologists peer through miles of water and rock improves faster than supplies recede. Many lower-grade deposits require no new looking at all.

To pick just one example among many, finding costs are essentially zero for the 3.5 trillion barrels of oil that soak the clay in the Orinoco basin in Venezuela, and the Athabasca tar sands in Alberta, Canada. Yes, that’s trillion – over a century’s worth of global supply, at the current 30-billion-barrel-a-year rate of consumption. _WallStreetJournal Jan 2005_quoted by_PeakOil?

 

[Trajan]

the "scarcity" is driven by human manipulation not drained resources.

 

[dilloduck]

the "scarcity" is driven by human manipulation not drained resources.

Amen ---one would have guessed that people would have figured this out by now but I guess it's easier to blame your political enemy of choice.

 

[JiggsCasey]

the "scarcity" is driven by human manipulation not drained resources.

Uh huh.... So I ask again, the IMF is lying? Or just misinformed?

Seems no one can answer that question.... They just "know in their heart" it's false.

If not the IMF, what about the Pentagon? The IEA? The U.S. Dept. of Energy? Why are they all lying, and what island did they all meet on to get their story straight?

For the record, and to make sure RGR's latest round of fraud is held accountable, I've never quoted Kunstler.

RGR, don't get all untucked just because you take a beating every time you engage me. It's not my fault your strategy of squawking "do you even know ....?" over and over again rings hollow. I not only know, but I'm forced to inform goofy you every time.

Again, why would the IMF come out and suddenly "lie" to the world about oil scarcity? Can't wait.

 

[KissMy]

Another Nail in the Coffin for the US Dollar.

China Signs Major Agreement To Import Oil From Saudi Arabia

China has signed a major agreement with Saudi oil company Saudi Aramco to supply its Yunnan province with oil, according to a media report.

Aramco, which is the world's most valued company worth between $2.2 trillion to $7 trillion, announced that an agreement has been signed with PetroChina Company Ltd to supply some 200,000 barrels of oil a day.

Khalid A. Al-Falih, president and CEO of Aramco, said, "We don't consider ourselves simply sellers of oil to China, but rather strategic partners whose many relationships in that important country are founded on mutual respect, interdependence and mutual benefit."

Source: www.eurasiareview.com, accessed April 6, 2011

Oil is going to $120 & will stay above that level.

 

[JiggsCasey]

- “I take this opportunity to express my opinion in the strongest terms, that the amazing exhibition of oil which has characterized the last twenty, and will probably characterize the next ten or twenty years, is nevertheless, not only geologically but historically, a temporary and vanishing phenomenon – one which young men will live to see come to its natural end” (1886, J.P. Lesley, state geologist of Pennsylvania).

- “There is little or no chance for more oil in California” (1886, U.S. Geological Survey).

- “There is little or no chance for more oil in Kansas and Texas” (1891, U.S. Geological Survey).

- “Total future production limit of 5.7 billion barrels of oil, perhaps a ten-year supply” (1914, U.S. Bureau of Mines).

- "Within the next two to five years the oil fields of this country will reach their maximum production, and from that time on we will face an ever-increasing decline." (1919 director of the U.S. Bureau of Mines)

- "Oil shales in Colorado and Utah would be exploited to produce oil, because the demand for oil could not be met by existing production." (1919 National Geographic magazine)

- "The position of the United States in regard to oil can best be characterized as precarious." (January 1920 Dr. George Otis Smith, Director of the United States Geological Survey)

- "Americans will have to depend on foreign sources or use less oil, or perhaps both." (May 1920 Dr. George Otis Smith, Director of the United States Geological Survey)

- "On the whole, therefore, we must expect that, unless our consumption is checked, we shall by 1925 be dependent on foreign oil fields to the extent of 150,000,000 barrels and possibly as much as 200,000,000 of crude each year, except insofar as the situation may at that time, perhaps, be helped to a slight extent by shale oil. Add to this probability that within 5 years--perhaps 3 years only--our domestic production will begin to fall off with increasing rapidity, due to the exhaustion of our reserves" (1920 David White, United States Geological Survey)

- “Reserves to last only thirteen years” (1939, Department of the Interior).

- “Reserves to last thirteen years” (1951, Department of the Interior, Oil and Gas Division).

- “We could use up all of the proven reserves of oil in the entire world by the end of the next decade” (President Jimmy Carter speaking in 1978 to the entire world).

- “At the present rate of use, it is estimated that coal reserves will last 200 more years. Petroleum may run out in 20 to 30 years, and natural gas may last only another 70 years” (Ralph M. Feather, Merrill textbook Science Connections Annotated Teacher’s Version, 1990, p. 493).

- “At the current rate of consumption, some scientists estimate that the world’s known supplies of oil … will be used up within your lifetime” (1993, The United States and its People).

- “The supply of fossil fuels is being used up at an alarming rate. Governments must help save our fossil fuel supply by passing laws limiting their use” (Merrill/Glenco textbook, Biology, An Everyday Experience, 1992).

Quotes like these could fill a thousand pages easily. _PeakOil?

One interesting example of a big oil find in the midst of "an exhausted field" occurred in Kern County, California. Kern River Oil Field was discovered in 1899, and initially it was thought that only 10 percent of its heavy, viscous crude could be recovered. In 1942, after more than four decades of modest production, the field was estimated to still hold 54 million barrels of recoverable oil. As pointed out in 1995 by Morris Adelman, professor emeritus at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and one of the few remaining energy gurus, “in the next forty-four years, it produced not 54 million barrels but 736 million barrels, and it had another 970 million barrels remaining.” But even this estimate was wrong. In November 2007 U.S. oil giant Chevron announced that cumulative production had reached two billion barrels. Today, Kern River still puts out more than 80,000 barrels per day, and Chevron reckons that the remaining reserves are about 480 million barrels.

"Proven Reserves" are those that can be produced "economically." But the definitions of economical production are constantly changing, as the technology (and the politics eg, Iraq) changes.

And then there are the "unconventionals," such as heavy oils, oil sands, oil shales, coal to liquids, gas to liquids, and biomass to liquids. A doomer will not even stoop to discuss this 50 ton gorilla in the room, but any good economist would be forced to consider them.
The cost of oil comes down to the cost of finding, and then lifting or extracting. First, you have to decide where to dig. Exploration costs currently run under $3 per barrel in much of the Mideast, and below $7 for oil hidden deep under the ocean. But these costs have been falling, not rising, because imaging technology that lets geologists peer through miles of water and rock improves faster than supplies recede. Many lower-grade deposits require no new looking at all.

To pick just one example among many, finding costs are essentially zero for the 3.5 trillion barrels of oil that soak the clay in the Orinoco basin in Venezuela, and the Athabasca tar sands in Alberta, Canada. Yes, that’s trillion – over a century’s worth of global supply, at the current 30-billion-barrel-a-year rate of consumption. _WallStreetJournal Jan 2005_quoted by_PeakOil?

There is so much fail here, it's hard to know where to begin.

But the biggest fail is your flat refusal to link your work.

Again, why is the IMF lying about their claim of oil scarcity?