CDZ I want to present this in this forum hopefully to get some real dialogue

[NotfooledbyW]

17#341 reply to 17#338

The number of Americans dying in hospitals and nursing homes is far less than died in hospitals and nursing homes in 2018

You are contradicting the President of the United States who repeats a version of this every single day now:


Trump: The question is: What would have happened if we did nothing? Because there was a group that said, “Let’s just ride it out. Let’s ride it out.” What would have happened? And that number comes in at 1.5 to 1.6 million people, up to 2.2 and even beyond. So that’s 2.2 million people would have died if we did nothing, if we just carried on our life.

TRUMPNow, I don’t think that would have been possible because you would have had people dying all over the place. This would not have been a normal life. How many people have even seen anybody die? You would have seen people dying on airplanes. You would have been seeing people dying in hotel lobbies. You would’ve seen death all over.

So I think, from a practical standpoint, that couldn’t have been carried out too far. But — but if you — if you did nothing, on the higher side, the number would be 2.2 and maybe even more, and on the lower side, 1.6 million people.

Remarks by President Trump, Vice President Pence, and Members of the Coronavirus Task Force in Press Briefing | The White House

March 31, 2020 5:30 P.M. EDT THE PRESIDENT: Thank you very much, everyone. Our country is in the midst of a great national trial, unlike any we have ever

www.whitehouse.gov

Is your president stupid?

 

[NotfooledbyW]

Doesn't MATTER to you that the death rate numbers for Covid are "educated guesses"

this chart is based entirely on historical data:

Its based on actual deaths. What do you think is ‘guessing’ on that chart?

 

[flacaltenn]

16#328 reply to 16#324

Why is it verboten to compare THIS flu to "other flus"???

It is not verboten to compare COVID19 to other novel virus flu. In fact that is what I have been doing for weeks here.

Culminating in this:

View attachment 325200

Trump supporters and libertarians in general reject the science behind this chart because it does not conform to the Trumpian world view that if a desired reality does not exist - create one. Here is a good example of that;

Post #52.

It is- as was h1n1 and all previous strains and there was no hysteria- this is all media bullshit because they don't like Trump and will sell their souls just to be able to hate him publicly.

H1N1 never threatened to overwhelm the hospitals and there were a very low number of flu-related deaths that year.

So -- why the hypocrisy about the tone of the OP? I've been in science and technology all my life.. It is in no why contrary to libertarianism or conservative..

 

[flacaltenn]

Doesn't MATTER to you that the death rate numbers for Covid are "educated guesses"

this chart is based entirely on historical data:

View attachment 325450

Its based on actual deaths. What do you think is ‘guessing’ on that chart?

First of all.,. It's been explained you to before -- that chart is NOT DEATHS.. It's death RATE.. Guess you didn;'t read the labels on the vertical axis of the chart.. A person with any science/math/tech background would see that right away. And the DEATH RATE for covid ------

1) NEVER WAS AT ZERO... In fact calculating a death RATE REQUIRES normalizing by #infections. And thus is INDEPENDENT of how many GET infected..

2) NO ONE -- including the CDC KNOWS what the COVID death rate is.. This is where science makes EDUCATED guesses. Because to calculate the death rate -- you HAVE to know #infections and we only know #reported..

Just a little factual science for someone that "cloaks" themselves in science the way you've done here.

 

[flacaltenn]

Want to remind everybody that this in the Clean Debate Zone -- and the topic takes priority over the usual political sliming..

 

[flacaltenn]

I will ask you again. Is depression contagious? I understand that it is not. What makes you think that it is?

It's not PHYSICALLY transmitted but it can surely BE TRIGGERED by external conditions and events like a Great Depression right? About 50K people ABOVE the "normal" suicide rate took their lives when the world around them disintegrated... How do you NOT know this??? If you're 75 and watch your investments shrink by 25 or 30% and you've ALREADY consume MOST of it -- and suddenly you can't afford your home, car, groceries by withdrawing funds from your retirement that are worth 25% less.. You MIGHT get clinically approved depression.. And possibly several other mental diagnoses at the same time.

Deaths of loved ones cause depression.. Divorces cause depression.. Losing your business and declaring BANKRUPTCY causes depression... Do you really need this explanation???

 

[Indeependent]

14#296 reply to 14#291 reply to 14#270 re: when will Correll comprehend that it is bad.

So, you seem confused about the difference between an administrator with real world duties and a voter who will judge the results.

No, the personal making the decision has to operate on the fly with limited data.

You do understand that I am not part of NYC government, right? And if I was, I would not tell you.

Not confused at all.

14#267” reply to 14#261

When it is over and we have some time to not only crunch the numbers but to check the numbers and to compare them to the "control" nations that did not react strongly.

When did you set up a control nation? Which one has a New New New York City that had not locked down?

There is no “control group“ and there cannot be to the US.

​

(in an experiment) The group of test subjects left untreated or unexposed to some procedure and then compared with treated subjects in order to validate the results of the test.​

English Wiktionary. Available under CC-BY-SA license.​

So why wait to crunch final numbers to understand the amount of death above normal C19 can and will certainly bring?

Are you social distancing or going about life as normal exactly as you did before? Do you hope to get infected so you can be one of the herd with natural immunity or one who ends up dead on a ventilator if there are any ehen your time comes,

There is no control group with similarity to the US. If you think Sweden is your control group perhaps you should consider it being a control group for locked down Denmark. Both similar in climate, ethnicity and religiosity,

You are already in trouble if you prefer herd immunity to lockdown and strict social distancing,

​

For weeks, the numbers of COVID-19 cases and fatalities were proportionally similar between Sweden and Denmark, but while the economic results of the strict isolation are being felt in Denmark, Sweden’s mortality rate has reached more than 88 dead per million, compared with around 47 dead per million in Denmark.​

​

As virus deaths rise, Sweden sticks to 'low-scale' lockdown

Sweden is pursuing relatively liberal policies to fight the coronavirus pandemic, even though there has been a sharp spike in deaths

www.google.com

NYC is more densely populated with a huge population of low income African Americans that have no ‘socialized’ medicine to get tree best of care under normal conditions and are more likely to die if infected.

But if you apply double the deaths per million from the Sweden and Denmark “controlled” experiment there would be around 10,000 more deaths in NYC than the 10,000 deaths reported to date.

Are you OK with 10,000 extra dead in NYC so you can maintain you freedom to a go to bar To spread the infection your third grader brought home from a grade school chick full of super spreaders.

Is saving 10,000 lives nothing to you?

EvMetro Same Question to you.

The Control Group is 100% of fatalities are people requiring Life Saving medication.

 

[NotfooledbyW]

When you state that your position cannot be disproved by new information, you are admitting that it is not based on information or facts or reason, but something else.

This chart confirms my position and wreaks havoc on yours. That line is based on actual deaths of patients with some kind of respiratory infection leading to pneumonia.

That red C19 line will not change with “new” information. Of course thousands of corpses could rise from the dead. That would be some interesting new information. But alas, Technically you would be right.

 

[esalla]

17#341 reply to 17#338

The number of Americans dying in hospitals and nursing homes is far less than died in hospitals and nursing homes in 2018

You are contradicting the President of the United States who repeats a version of this every single day now:


Trump: The question is: What would have happened if we did nothing? Because there was a group that said, “Let’s just ride it out. Let’s ride it out.” What would have happened? And that number comes in at 1.5 to 1.6 million people, up to 2.2 and even beyond. So that’s 2.2 million people would have died if we did nothing, if we just carried on our life.

TRUMPNow, I don’t think that would have been possible because you would have had people dying all over the place. This would not have been a normal life. How many people have even seen anybody die? You would have seen people dying on airplanes. You would have been seeing people dying in hotel lobbies. You would’ve seen death all over.

So I think, from a practical standpoint, that couldn’t have been carried out too far. But — but if you — if you did nothing, on the higher side, the number would be 2.2 and maybe even more, and on the lower side, 1.6 million people.

Remarks by President Trump, Vice President Pence, and Members of the Coronavirus Task Force in Press Briefing | The White House

March 31, 2020 5:30 P.M. EDT THE PRESIDENT: Thank you very much, everyone. Our country is in the midst of a great national trial, unlike any we have ever

www.whitehouse.gov

Is your president stupid?

The strange thing is that I understand Trumps moves and I do believe that this disease is highly infectious. My wife lost her hearing for about a week and I had a fever without the usual sickness, all just at the time this was going public nutty. I believe my entire family was infected and is now immune, so there is a virus, but from my view the common cold is also a virus and less people died from this so far than died from the flu in 2018

That said the entire CDC should be hung from the neck until dead

 

[NotfooledbyW]

I believe my entire family was infected and is now immune,

Based on what? What kind beliefs???

 

[esalla]

I believe my entire family was infected and is now immune,

Based on what? What kind beliefs???

My wife lost her hearing for a week and this has been documented. We did not isolate ourselves from each other in our home so we all had it. I had a fever with no other symptoms which is weird for a fever

No big deal, only sick people die from the common cold which is what this is

But you wear a mask for the rest of your life, I will laugh at you

 

[NotfooledbyW]

Do you really need this explanation???

No, you indirectly answered my question. Depression is not contagious. Any other dead ends you want to go down.

 

[esalla]

Do you really need this explanation???

No, you indirectly answered my question. Depression is not contagious. Any other dead ends you want to go down.

Depression has causes, telling people they can not work and must stay at home which becomes a prison to the depressed.

Dude My entire family had this baby shit disease my wife lost her hearing, they will never test us though because I will mock people like you

 

[Correll]

When you state that your position cannot be disproved by new information, you are admitting that it is not based on information or facts or reason, but something else.

This chart confirms my position and wreaks havoc on yours. That line is based on actual deaths of patients with some kind of respiratory infection leading to pneumonia.

View attachment 325465

That red C19 line will not change with “new” information. Of course thousands of corpses could rise from the dead. That would be some interesting new information. But alas, Technically you would be right.

Or, it could be that the count was incorrect, because flu and/or pneumonia deaths are being counted as convid deaths.


But, you have already stated that you do not care about new information. Your position is set, regardless.


That is you admitting that your position is not based on facts or reason.


That is your right. But you don't get to expect to be taken seriously now.

 

[flacaltenn]

Do you really need this explanation???

No, you indirectly answered my question. Depression is not contagious. Any other dead ends you want to go down.

I directly corrected you.. Not "indirectly" Because you had a faulty excuse for NOT understanding what Dr Phil was saying.. Depression ACTS like a contagious disease because when folks are surrounded by grief and frightening times -- those with LESS immunity to it WILL get it.. And right now -- folks with heart attacks and strokes are AFRAID to call 911 because of the Covid crisis.. THAT leads to suffering and death.. Also "pace makers" have been deemed 'non essential' surgery and are being deferred with a mile long LIST of OTHER Cardiac procedures NOT being performed..

This economic and personal isolation situation we're in is VERY unhealthy mentally and physically and is NOT sustainable.. Dr Phil is correct on that. No matter how attention or credit you give him or not.. You may want to ARGUE about depression "is not contagious"..,. Actually not a useful or informed excuse -- but nonetheless -- you're USING it... So I don't think you have a very informed view of the pain and suffering goin on right now in America -- because you're FOCUSED on the COVID and NOT the side effects to society...

 

[NotfooledbyW]

I directly corrected you.. Not "indirectly" Because you had a faulty excuse for NOT understanding what Dr Phil was saying.. Depression ACTS like a contagious disease because when folks are surrounded by grief and frightening times -- those with LESS immunity to it WILL get it..

Give me a break. You didn’t correct me on anything.

contagious; (of a disease) spread from one person or organism to another by direct or indirect contact.

Dr Phil can tell you that feeling miserable and depression may ACT like a contagious disease, but if I have it, I can ride on the Metro or go to a football game and I will not infect those when I come within six feet of their nose. I can’t spread it by coughing into my hand and touching a door knob to who touches it next.

And those with depression due to economic collapse, are not causing hospitals to become overwhelmed with new patients needing to be put on ventilators just to keep breathing while their immune system is in a life or death battle against an infection in their lungs.

Let’s discuss facts that are available instead of a TV DOCTOR who never practiced medicine because he never got a license.

This chart is a fact.

Tell me why the C19 line nearly goes straight up in four weeks.

Dumb Doctor Phil said.

​

“The fact of the matter is 40,000 people die a year from automobile accidents. .....​

......but we don’t shut the country down for that. But yet we’re doing it for this?”​

​

He is a FOX News idiot because .. the economy started shutting itself down on its own based on what could be seen in Italy.,​

​

Had the economy and public schools stayed open, business as usual, NCAA packed stadiums full for March Madness, the 40,000 COVID19 deaths couid be exponentially 400,000 by now.​

​

The yearly 40,000 is not the right number of car accident deaths to compare to the current C19 40,000 deaths in four to five weeks. if we relax traffic laws, no limits to speeding, no right side of the road, Mad Max rules, and we end up with 400,000 traffic deaths per year, there would be a deteriorating reaction to the economy.​

​

Imagine if the almost vertical C19 line were car crash deaths, and the car crash line were the C19​

​

​

What would be in the news? wouid opening day of Major League Baseball be cancelled?​

​

Dr. Phil is a fool but he knows how to make money fooling even bigger fools.​

 

[flacaltenn]

Dr Phil can tell you that feeling miserable and depression may ACT like a contagious disease, but if I have it, I can ride on the Metro or go to a football game and I will not infect those when I come within six feet of their nose. I can’t spread it by coughing into my hand and touching a door knob to who touches it next.

No man.. This is hopeless. Depression SPREADS thru misery and despair... Like NOT having a metro or sports to watch or having to watch your granny DIE thru a window instead of being there. This aint going anywhere because you don't recognize the APPALLING situation this nation is in right now apparently..

 

[NotfooledbyW]

So I don't think you have a very informed view of the pain and suffering goin on right now in America -- because you're FOCUSED on the COVID and NOT the side effects to society...

I knew, the stock market was headed for collapse because worldwide investors are science oriented and they know what a novel virus and will do.

When American SPORTS Leagues shut down the season, and schools and universities, and March Madness shut down, the economic pain and suffering, had begun.

I’m quite informed on the psychological pain and suffering caused by a downturn I the economy even though my wife and our extended global family are all in very good shape.

My wife is a Psychotherapist in her country of birth, She has masters degree in epidemiology from a US University and is now doing mental illness research.

I personally can do something to help our medical professionals stop the spread of a. Killer virus. But I can’t do much about stopping someone jumping out the window because he lost a lot of money in the stock market.

We have a President who says shutting the country was necessary to save over two million lives. If you think that many deaths over and above the normal death rates would not cause suffering and depression worse than it is now, I can’t do anything but point out the errors in your thinking.

Do you accept this chart as being factual.

if, not - what is not factual about it?

 

[flacaltenn]

Do you accept this chart as being factual.

Not at all.. The org that compiled it is mixing apples and oranges.. #deaths with death rates.. And a death rate for an epidemic virus is STATIC, not dynamic... So the chart is a useless fraud..

I told you -- EVEN CDC doesn't know a death rate yet...

DEATHS INCREASE in an epidemic death rates dont.. And if you read the legend where they stole the OTHER curves from -- it's in # per 100,000 -- those are RATES... The RATES of auto accidents can VARY seasonally.. The RATE of death from a virus is a FIXED NUMBER... It's a terrible attempt to compare different stats...

 

[NotfooledbyW]

This aint going anywhere because you don't recognize the APPALLING situation this nation is in right now apparently..

You are wrong, but tell me what I can do to stop the spread of depression.

I think the entire situation is appalling. One of the most appalling comes from those who downplay the severity of a novel virus pandemic as being nothing worse than the common flu. or car crashes.

I posted this earlier:

More than 1,500 people died in a 48-hour period in New York City this week, according to the city Health Department. That still fails to capture the full extent of the crisis, as city officials are still not releasing numbers of probable COVID-19 deaths where tests were not conducted.​

At one hospital in Queens, a physician who oversees an intensive care unit said the hospital was struggling to find places to put the dead. Before the pandemic, they’d see 10 to 15 deaths a week, he said. Now they’re seeing 20 to 25 a day.​

That’s appalling. I’m getting to convince the non believers that is real and not an anti-Trump hoax.

Why do you oppose me doing that.