I understand and believe in global warming, but...

Do you have a refutation of the work of Shakun or Marcotte on this? Do you have a DEMONSTRABLY BETTER reconstruction? I have to conclude that, no, you don't, or you would have presented it.

The opening of Northwest Passage to name one concludes that global warming is a real event. I expect a brutal cold winter in Ohio but we are mid-continent. This counterintuitive phenomena somehow connects with the Laws of Thermodynamics and may be the third law, entropy.
 
Do you have a refutation of the work of Shakun or Marcotte on this? Do you have a DEMONSTRABLY BETTER reconstruction? I have to conclude that, no, you don't, or you would have presented it.

Don't need one idiot...the question was upon what reconstruction can can you make claims regarding temperature changes in a century...the answer remains none...so in fact, your claims of the present being unprecedented, or even approaching the boundaries of natural variability are nothing more than just more of your bullshit.... Try and keep up...idiot....
 
So you admit that Shakun and Marcotte have produced the best reconstruction of Holocene temperatures. You have NO mechanism that could raise the world's temperature 2C and then drop it back where it started in a span of less than 200 years. So your reliance on what MIGHT have happened is worthless. Just like every thing you've ever said on any scientific issue. You are a science idiot. Profoundly stupid.
 
So you admit that Shakun and Marcotte have produced the best reconstruction of Holocene temperatures. You have NO mechanism that could raise the world's temperature 2C and then drop it back where it started in a span of less than 200 years. So your reliance on what MIGHT have happened is worthless. Just like every thing you've ever said on any scientific issue. You are a science idiot. Profoundly stupid.
highlight that one for me.
 


We have been through this before.

The graph shows massively exaggerated error bars. And then it combines incongruent types of information, and the last part of the graph is a guess from climate models that have been demonstrated to be wrong.

In the past I have produced the actual proxies used. They do not agree with each other in timing or quantities, often showing the opposite of each other. And these are the proxies that were chosen to be included! The methodologies are cherrypicked to give the best results, and combined in a fashion that gives more weight to welcome outcomes, while at the same time hiding the inconvenient ones.

You can't average out telephone numbers but if you tried it would be skewed towards 8xx prefixes by volume of calls. Is it useful information? Depends on what you are looking for.
 
Why don't you submit a rebuttal? Those two works have been heavily reviewed and are now very widely cited. You're a knowledgeable guy Ian, but Shakun, Marcotte and the folks who reviewed and cited their work know the topics better. I've gotta go with them.
 
So you admit that Shakun and Marcotte have produced the best reconstruction of Holocene temperatures. You have NO mechanism that could raise the world's temperature 2C and then drop it back where it started in a span of less than 200 years. So your reliance on what MIGHT have happened is worthless. Just like every thing you've ever said on any scientific issue. You are a science idiot. Profoundly stupid.


You have no mechanisms to explain the MWP or LIA.

Looking at ice core data, that is actually capable of resolving short time frames, there have been many individual spikes of 2 degrees in a hundred years. None of them led to runaway warming.
 
There are numerous mechanisms that could have created the MWP or the LIA. There are none that could create the sort of pulse these fools are hypothesizing. Your ice core data are regional. Give us a mechanism that will drive temperatures up 2 C and then back down 2 C, GLOBALLY, in 200 years.
 
Why don't you submit a rebuttal? Those two works have been heavily reviewed and are now very widely cited.


Marcott was a PhD thesis that reconstructed temps for a few thousand years. It was 'improved' with the help of Mann and Shaun and rereleased with a hockey stick ending to great public fanfare. When the recent history portion was found to be mistaken (if not even fraudulent) they didn't care because they already had both the publicity and another peer reviewed paper to reference.

Shakun's ice age reconstruction claimed time resolution of the data that simply wasn't there, to support his theory that CO2 can end an ice age. Take a look at the proxies. Events that differed by thousands of years in individual proxies were averaged and weighted and adjusted to give the impression that we could declare with certainty when things changed down to a few hundred years. Hubris.
 
The hockey stick ending was neither mistaken nor fraudulent. Shakun's desire was to see if the data supported CO2 leading warming after it had started for other reasons. He succeeded. If you want to convince me he failed, give us the opinion of someone with the appropriate letters after their name who says so and why.
 
The hockey stick ending was neither mistaken nor fraudulent. Shakun's desire was to see if the data supported CO2 leading warming after it had started for other reasons. He succeeded. If you want to convince me he failed, give us the opinion of someone with the appropriate letters after their name who says so and why.


I am not going to refight the battles over these papers. Mistakes were made and left uncorrected. You believe your side because of deference to authority. I can understand that, it is easier than thinking for yourself.

Me, I prefer to think.

Climate science thinks they can play by their own rules and ignore the scientific method.

D'Arrigo gave the money quote when she told the NAS investigating committee, "You can't make cherry pies without picking cherries."
 
The hockey stick ending was neither mistaken nor fraudulent. Shakun's desire was to see if the data supported CO2 leading warming after it had started for other reasons. He succeeded. If you want to convince me he failed, give us the opinion of someone with the appropriate letters after their name who says so and why.


Bwahaha combing proxies with modern instruments. ..hilarious..
 
You'll have to find me either proof that modern instrumental data are flawed or that Marcotte did not point out where the data shifted from proxy to instrumented.
 
You'll have to find me either proof that modern instrumental data are flawed or that Marcotte did not point out where the data shifted from proxy to instrumented.

Why didn't Mann use tree rings to finish his graph?

Oh yea it wouldn't have worked



.
 
So you admit that Shakun and Marcotte have produced the best reconstruction of Holocene temperatures.


Of course not...they produced a piece of shit...but it was what they were paid to produce...and it is good enough to satisfy or fool the useful idiots of the world.
 
What evidence do you have for ANY of those charges?

Do you have an arguably better reconstruction?

I am quite certain we will find the answer to both those questions is "no". And what does that say about you?
 
What evidence do you have for ANY of those charges?

Observation.

Do you have an arguably better reconstruction?

Just the gold standard...

Lappi_Greenland_ice_core_10000yrs.jpg

Vostok_to_10Kybp.gif


I am quite certain we will find the answer to both those questions is "no". And what does that say about you?

You really are an idiot...aren't you...and what does that say about you other than that you are an idiot?
 
The gold standard, eh? How well does that data indicate temperatures from the equator? SST in the Indian Ocean? Pacific temperatures?

You claim ice cores are the gold standard. In what way? And what actual expert tells you that?
 
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Yale likes ice cores. http://www.econ.yale.edu/~nordhaus/homepage/documents/icecore_review.pdf

a scientist using alternate proxies doesnt seem to have overwhelming confidence in the proxies or their calculation-

Accurate interpretations of past changes in oceanographic and climatic conditions preserved in deep sea sediments directly hinge on our understanding of the present-day factors influencing the climate proxies used to estimate these past conditions. However, numerous investigations have resulted in a widening array of calibrations for these proxies, resulting in questions concerning their accuracy and the reliability of generalizing these calibrations to other regions. In this dissertation, I examine three commonly used temperature proxies: the alkenone unsaturation index (UK'37), planktonic G. bulloides foraminiferal Mg/Ca and delta18O. The proxies have been calibrated using an 11-year time series of sediment trap samples (1994-2004) and sediment core from the Santa Barbara Basin (SBB), and correlated to concurrently measured temperatures in order to determine where in the water column the temperature signal is acquired. Our results indicate that changes in alkenone unsaturation are best correlated with temperatures at the chlorophyll maximum. Linear regression between these two variables yields a significant positive relationship of UK'37 = 0.0287T + 0.116 (R2=0.56; alpha=0.05). Temperatures calculated from our chlorophyll maximum equation are statistically identical (alpha=0.005) to those calculated using the Prahl et al. (1988) UK' 37 equation derived from coccolithophorid culture studies. While the UK'37 ratio in the sediment trap samples clearly records seasonal and interannual temperature variability, the UK' 37 record preserved in Santa Barbara Basin sediments reflects cooler temperatures associated with spring SSTs due to highest alkenone production during this season. The Mg/Ca -- temperature calibration results show strong seasonal and interannual signals in G. bulloides Mg/Ca and delta18O for the 150-250 and 250-300 mum size fractions. Calibration of the Mg/Ca -- temperature relationship for the two size fractions of G. bulloides to temperatures at multiple depth intervals and to delta18O -- calcification temperatures result in linear regressions producing a better fit than the more commonly used exponential regression, with a strong correlation of Mg/Ca to Fall temperatures at the 20 m depth for the 250-300 mum size fraction. These results lead us to define a G. bulloides Mg/Ca -- temperature calibration as Mg/Ca = 0.278T -- 1.26 (R2 = 0.75). Applying other studies' equations to our Mg/Ca dataset, we find that our fall 20 m calibration is statistically identical to measured 20 m water column temperatures, while other equations are significantly different. Results support previous hypotheses that the larger G. bulloides size fractions migrate to deeper depths during summer and fall, and thus the seasonal signal in Mg/Ca ratios may reflect a reproductive/size component to the Mg/Ca temperatures recorded in G. bulloides. This study provides an important verification of the reliability of the alkenone and planktonic foraminiferal Mg/Ca paleotemperature proxies for determining past ocean temperatures. Examining the factors contributing to the variability in these calibration equations allows us to further elucidate and understand the factors affecting the variability of these temperature proxies as they are preserved in deep-sea sediments.
 
The gold standard, eh? How well does that data indicate temperatures from the equator? SST in the Indian Ocean? Pacific temperatures?

You claim ice cores are the gold standard. In what way? And what actual expert tells you that?

Since those same warming signatures show in ice cores taken at both poles, describe the mechanism by which you believe the real estate between the two poles would be immune to the warming.
 

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