william the wie
Gold Member
- Nov 18, 2009
- 16,667
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I was checking the current odds of Trump winning in 2020 and I ran into debates about the odds of China collapsing this year.
There are several problems that are converging
The loss of Japanese and Korean direct investment in China is a huge hit.
The trade war with the US is another biggie
But the biggest problems are gaming the economic numbers.
LFF in China and Japan include a large number of mandatory retirees but Japan permits some 60 year old retirees to work until age 65 China generally does not.
Capital flight is common but hard numbers are hard to come by. Advisors are available to get money out of China and later the owners of the money.
Unemployment is increasing but numbers are not released.
Because normal accounting data is not available investment in China is declining.
The postponement of new tariffs gives more time to get out of China so, disinvesting in China is likely to get much worse as December 15th gets closer. That sounds like China will be collapsing late this year/early next year.
There are several problems that are converging
The loss of Japanese and Korean direct investment in China is a huge hit.
The trade war with the US is another biggie
But the biggest problems are gaming the economic numbers.
LFF in China and Japan include a large number of mandatory retirees but Japan permits some 60 year old retirees to work until age 65 China generally does not.
Capital flight is common but hard numbers are hard to come by. Advisors are available to get money out of China and later the owners of the money.
Unemployment is increasing but numbers are not released.
Because normal accounting data is not available investment in China is declining.
The postponement of new tariffs gives more time to get out of China so, disinvesting in China is likely to get much worse as December 15th gets closer. That sounds like China will be collapsing late this year/early next year.