How Obama has 6% CNN Polling Lead.. 9/11/12.. of

Discussion in 'Politics' started by healthmyths, Sep 11, 2012.

  1. healthmyths
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    healthmyths Gold Member Supporting Member

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    POLL: CNN Poll: Obama takes back the lead
    CNN so excited! Yes Obama takes back a 6% lead so how did this happen??

    Well if YOU are interested in the REAL TRUTH and FACTS of POLLING OVERSAMPLING!!

    Down load the Polling questions and methodology and look at page 4 and see that
    CNN counted 44 MORE DEMOCRATS that GOP!

    So they are basing this 6% Obama voting edge to the FACT CNN asked 441 Democrats versus 397 GOP!

    http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/09/10/rel10a.pdf


    So think about ! Even spotting the Democrats 44 more Democrats Obama could ONLY muster a 6% lead!!!

    That is pathetic for Obama being an incumbent -- with MSM biased trying to push Obama again see CNN???
    AND all he can muster is 6%???
     
  2. BreezeWood
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    BreezeWood VIP Member Supporting Member

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    just shows party affiliation is not all that counts - whether 1% or 6% a lead is a win ...
     
  3. healthmyths
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    healthmyths Gold Member Supporting Member

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    Well that 6% lead when DISCOUNTED by subtracting 44 DEMOCRATS from the 441,
    and make the total the same as GOP i.e. 397 that 6% is reduced if not wiped out!

    And again...my point is IN SPITE of stuffing the POLL numbers, in spite of the MSM being in the tank for Obama... why is it ONLY 6%???

    So I would offer that as more and more intelligent people realize Obama was such a phony, arrogant empty suit the closer the election that 6% WILL evaporate!
    Remember to this is the vaunted Convention BOUNCE!!!

    Then we also have to ask What's Obama going to do about Egypt???
    Do about Israel? Do about USA credit rating to be reduced? Do about Sept employment records that are continuing to plummet?

    I lived through Carter's Misery Index and at the equal point of the campaign Reagan was BEHIND Carter!!!
     
  4. RetiredGySgt
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    RetiredGySgt Platinum Member

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    Of 441 44 is about 10 percent. Can't remember my statistics been to many years. But I would say 6 percent is small for that big a lead in supposed supporters.
     
  5. BreezeWood
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    BreezeWood VIP Member Supporting Member

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    why are you subtracting the 44 Democrats - you do not know who they voted for - especially as an extra 44 does not translate to 6% so some Republicans voted for Obama as well as Democrats.
     
  6. Dick Tuck
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    Dick Tuck Board Troll

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    Rassmussen's 3% lead for Obama is statistically the same as CNN's 6 point lead.
     
  7. RetiredGySgt
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    RetiredGySgt Platinum Member

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    The total is 838 of respondents. 44 of that is 5.3 percent. Which means without oversampling one could reasonable assume the amount Obama is ahead is .7 percent. Now what is the amount of the spread on the poll?

    44 clearly gained the supposed lead.
     
    Last edited: Sep 11, 2012
  8. healthmyths
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    healthmyths Gold Member Supporting Member

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    I'm subtracting 44 Democrats to make it a balanced sample.

    I am sure that possibly at least 1 but very few of the 44 Democrats would be voting for Romney!

    But I am MORE confident that most if NOT all voted for Obama!

    So if the 52% votes translate into 1/10th of each percentage point went to Obama and we take away then
    1/10th of a point for each of the 44 the 52% is reduced by 5.2%!

    So again check my math but if each of the 441 Democrats voted for Obama and that was 52% for Obama.
    That works out to 1/10th of a point for each of the 441 Democrats... 52%

    Multiple 44 MORE votes from Democrats at 1/10th each a total of 5.2% subtracted from 52% or 47% to Romney's 46%!
     
  9. Dick Tuck
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    Dick Tuck Board Troll

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    Some people forget the term Reagan Democrats. I'm also sure there's many Obama Republicans, especially the dying breed of Republican liberals in the Northeast. And yes, the number of registered Democrats is much higher than registered Republicans, and it has much do with the politics of the south, where many local races are with conservative Democrats.

    To me this claim of bias is just excuse making and wishful thinking. I heard the same crap 4 years ago, and the polls, by and large, turned out to be quite accurate. It turned out that Nate Silver, who runs 538, and blogs for the NY Times, in his analysis of the polls was within .1% of being perfect. Pollster and Real Clear were a close second and third.
     
  10. RetiredGySgt
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    And of course in 2004 and 2000 the Republicans cheated the system right? Or how about the fact that at this point in the last couple races the polls are simply wrong as they show what would possibly happen at THIS time?

    Hell People were ahead 2 weeks before an election in polls and lost. Or were those different?

    One does not purport to run an unbiased poll by stacking the odds in favor of the person on the poll they publicly support.
     

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