How Many D seats will be lost in the next Census?

[william the wie]

Higher minimum wages and restrictions on contract workers in Blue states are increasing unemployment in those states and therefore will increase migration out of the Blue states. The big question is how many seats will be lost?

What is your guesstimate on how many will be lost?

While multiple possible scenarios could be in play, New York looks likely to be the biggest loser, and Florida and Texas the biggest winners.

States Gaining Districts (7)

• Arizona +1 (from 9 to 10)
• Colorado +1 (from 7 to 8)
• Florida +2 (from 27 to 29)
• Montana +1 (from At-large to 2)
• North Carolina +1 (from 13 to 14)
• Oregon +1 (from 5 to 6)
• Texas +3 (from 36 to 39)

States Losing Districts (8 or 10)

• Alabama -1 (from 7 to 6)
• California -1 or even (from 53 to 52 or no change)
• Illinois -1 (from 18 to 17)
• Michigan -1 (from 14 to 13)
• Minnesota -1 or even (from 8 to 7 or no change)
• New York -2 (from 27 to 25)
• Ohio -1 (from 16 to 15)
• Pennsylvania -1 (from 18 to 17)
• Rhode Island -1 (from 2 to 1)
• West Virginia -1 (from 3 to 2)

States Expected to Gain or Lose Congressional Seats After the 2020 Census (Updated) | Insights Association

My nieces in-law in CA and my wife's more immediate relatives in NY are getting more ansy I'm calling 11 lost seats a one seat loss more than currently expected.

 

[2aguy]

Higher minimum wages and restrictions on contract workers in Blue states are increasing unemployment in those states and therefore will increase migration out of the Blue states. The big question is how many seats will be lost?

What is your guesstimate on how many will be lost?

Hopefully all of them...

 

[MAGAman]

Higher minimum wages and restrictions on contract workers in Blue states are increasing unemployment in those states and therefore will increase migration out of the Blue states. The big question is how many seats will be lost?

What is your guesstimate on how many will be lost?

Not as many as are filled by illegals

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

So, what happens when people from NY move to Florida?
It turns a state that went Red in 2016 by half a percent into a Blue State

I suppose that depends on who is moving and whether they keep their same political views in tact.

I would hazard to guess that if someone from NY moves to Florida, he will stay Blue and if someone from Alabama moves to Florida, they will stay Red

That may be the case with most people, but not necessarily. Look at the "blue wall" states: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Minnesota, etc. They've been slowly trending more Republican since the turn of the century and they've had stagnant populations. They aren't gaining people from "red" states. Politics change over time.

 

[william the wie]

Higher minimum wages and restrictions on contract workers in Blue states are increasing unemployment in those states and therefore will increase migration out of the Blue states. The big question is how many seats will be lost?

What is your guesstimate on how many will be lost?

Hopefully all of them...

dream on. Take FBC compliant manufactured homes here in FL. nubes mistake them for triple wide trailers 180MPH wind resistant FBCs are insanely better than the wooden houses nubes buy and decrease their survival probablity while increasing building and repair costs. Ocean view houses are also likely to kill you and get your house condemned.

 

[rightwinger]

So, what happens when people from NY move to Florida?
It turns a state that went Red in 2016 by half a percent into a Blue State

I suppose that depends on who is moving and whether they keep their same political views in tact.

I would hazard to guess that if someone from NY moves to Florida, he will stay Blue and if someone from Alabama moves to Florida, they will stay Red

That may be the case with most people, but not necessarily. Look at the "blue wall" states: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Minnesota, etc. They've been slowly trending more Republican since the turn of the century and they've had stagnant populations. They aren't gaining people from "red" states. Politics change over time.

All of those states are the same
The major cities are solid blue and the rural areas are red

I grew up in a solid Republican area of New York. I now live in a solid Republican area of NJ. But both states are solid Blue

 

[MAGAman]

The census itself does not matter that much

What matters is who gerrymanders the districts

The election of 2020 will decide that

Gerrymandering matters, for sure.

Counting illegals means more gerrymandering.

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

So, what happens when people from NY move to Florida?
It turns a state that went Red in 2016 by half a percent into a Blue State

I suppose that depends on who is moving and whether they keep their same political views in tact.

I would hazard to guess that if someone from NY moves to Florida, he will stay Blue and if someone from Alabama moves to Florida, they will stay Red

That may be the case with most people, but not necessarily. Look at the "blue wall" states: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Minnesota, etc. They've been slowly trending more Republican since the turn of the century and they've had stagnant populations. They aren't gaining people from "red" states. Politics change over time.

All of those states are the same
The major cities are solid blue and the rural areas are red

I grew up in a solid Republican area of New York. I now live in a solid Republican area of NJ. But both states are solid Blue

I’m not talking about New York and New Jersey

 

[william the wie]

So, what happens when people from NY move to Florida?
It turns a state that went Red in 2016 by half a percent into a Blue State

I suppose that depends on who is moving and whether they keep their same political views in tact.

I would hazard to guess that if someone from NY moves to Florida, he will stay Blue and if someone from Alabama moves to Florida, they will stay Red

That may be the case with most people, but not necessarily. Look at the "blue wall" states: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Minnesota, etc. They've been slowly trending more Republican since the turn of the century and they've had stagnant populations. They aren't gaining people from "red" states. Politics change over time.

All of those states are the same
The major cities are solid blue and the rural areas are red

I grew up in a solid Republican area of New York. I now live in a solid Republican area of NJ. But both states are solid Blue

I’m not talking about New York and New Jersey

The current southern CA snow fall and probable additions could have major effects on the election when it melts but my money is on Durham's investigation of Paul Pelosi jr.

 

[eagle1462010]

The last redistricting was a massacre for the Dems. Even though well over 50 percent of the votes were for Democrats, Republicans received an overwhelming majority of the House seats

Even if the Dems don’t win a majority of Governorships and state houses, they will win most of the House if they can just get close

No it wasn't...........they are only moving to Red States making them purple.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Higher minimum wages and restrictions on contract workers in Blue states are increasing unemployment in those states and therefore will increase migration out of the Blue states. The big question is how many seats will be lost?

What is your guesstimate on how many will be lost?

While multiple possible scenarios could be in play, New York looks likely to be the biggest loser, and Florida and Texas the biggest winners.

States Gaining Districts (7)

• Arizona +1 (from 9 to 10)
• Colorado +1 (from 7 to 8)
• Florida +2 (from 27 to 29)
• Montana +1 (from At-large to 2)
• North Carolina +1 (from 13 to 14)
• Oregon +1 (from 5 to 6)
• Texas +3 (from 36 to 39)

States Losing Districts (8 or 10)

• Alabama -1 (from 7 to 6)
• California -1 or even (from 53 to 52 or no change)
• Illinois -1 (from 18 to 17)
• Michigan -1 (from 14 to 13)
• Minnesota -1 or even (from 8 to 7 or no change)
• New York -2 (from 27 to 25)
• Ohio -1 (from 16 to 15)
• Pennsylvania -1 (from 18 to 17)
• Rhode Island -1 (from 2 to 1)
• West Virginia -1 (from 3 to 2)

States Expected to Gain or Lose Congressional Seats After the 2020 Census (Updated) | Insights Association

My nieces in-law in CA and my wife's more immediate relatives in NY are getting more ansy I'm calling 11 lost seats a one seat loss more than currently expected.

NY just gave driver license to Illegals, they want to make it a permanent One Party Rule State