How long till "ABB"-Syndrome sets in in the GOP?

[Statistikhengst]

Now, before I begin, the same question could theoretically be asked of the Democrats, in which case, it would be the "ABC"-Syndrome.

The sense I get from the OVERWHELMING majority of Conservatives here in USMB and from Conservatives in the real world, is that they don't think that a third Bush can get elected, that Jeb's family name is a problem for him.

Some articles to illustrate this point, at least partially:

A local Republican leader says Jeb Bush could have a problem in New Hampshire - Yahoo Finance

One NH GOP chair says locals aren't anti-Bush, they just aren't pro.According to one influential New Hampshire Republican, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (R) has not emerged as a favorite with local activists in the crucial early primary state.

In fact, Bruce Perlo, chair of New Hampshire's Grafton County GOP, said it seems like area Republicans prefer other options.

Bush is currently campaigning in New Hampshire and Perlo was among the local conservatives who gathered Thursday night in Concord, New Hampshire, for a "Politics and Pie" town hall-style event. Perlo said local Republicans don't have bad things to say about Bush, but they are gravitating towards other candidates.

"What I haven't heard is people saying, 'I don't like Jeb Bush because he's a Bush or I don't like his policies,'" Perlo told Business Insider. "They've just said nothing. What I'm hearing is that they think Cruz, or Rubio is a better guy. They haven't tried to knock anybody down."

Jennifer Horn, chair of the New Hampshire Republican Party, similarly concluded that while Bush has dominated the fundraising race, he hasn't locked down an advantage in the Granite State.

"You don't have to raise $100 million to be heard in New Hampshire," she told the New York Times, adding, "There are no front-runners here right now."

George W. Bush admits he is Jeb Bush s biggest problem in 2016 - Yahoo Finance

Former President George W. Bush has a one word description for a major problem his younger brother, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (R), will face if he enters the 2016 presidential election:

"Me."

President Bush, who left office with a dismal 35% approval rating, came clean about the reality of the country's fatigue with his family's political dynasty on Wednesday, when he spoke in Chicago the Healthcare Information and Management Systems Society conference.

"It's an easy line to say, 'Haven't we had enough Bushes?' After all, even my mother said, 'Yes,'" he told the crowd, according to Politico.

President Bush also said he won't play a major role if his brother runs in 2016.

Jeb Bush s 100 million problem - Ben White - POLITICO

Bush advisers are scrambling to drive down lofty fundraising expectations

We saw some of this in 2010/2011, as many Republicans were saying "ABR" - "anyone but Romney", but, even though stuck at 23% in GOP polling for almost two years straight, Romney ended up being the nominee.

So, I am not saying that Jeb Bush will not be the GOP standard-bearer. Well, first he needs to announce. But in polling against Hillary, in most cases, both Rand Paul and Marco Rubio are doing better against her. And I have seen a disproportionately large amount of negative commentary about Bush all over the place, including USMB.

So, my question is: how long will it take before "anybody but Bush"-Syndrome sets-in with the GOP?

1 month - June 2015?
3 months - September 2015?
5 months - November 2015?
7 months - January 2016?
Never?
Not sure?

Now, a number of members, like rightwinger - are pretty darned sure that Jeb Bush is going to be the Republican nominee. I am not entirely sure. But for the first time in my lifetime, I am seeing the possibility of the largest GOP field since 1940 and the real possibility of a 2nd or 3rd ballot convention, possibly even a dark-horse scenario (although I surmise that is still pretty unlikely).

My reasons for this are clear:

1. ) The splintering of the GOP within itself over a number of issues. Hatred of Hillary Clinton alone is not going to do the job. The GOP needs many new young followers, but those who are young are likely going to either be the more Libertarian or more fundie Christian types, a "clientele" much more likely to support a Ted Cruz, a Mike Huckabee or a Rand Paul.

2.) The southern factor: the GOP tried it with a Northerner in 2012, and it didn't work. Here again, Rand Paul, Mike Huckabee and this time, Marco Rubio could have chances, but Florida is not the deep South like the rest of the South, both Rubio and Bush could easily be seen as outsiders outside of Florida itself. And then there is the Walker factor - Governor of a large Midwestern state who is gaining a lot of support and since he is perceived as a moderate, would be a threat to Jeb.

From my viewpoint, the long and short of it is:

the bigger the GOP crowd, the more splittered it is, the longer this thing is going to drag on and then the same catch-22 happens in 2016 as happened in 2012: in order to get the nomination, the candidate who wins will have to tack to hard to the extreme Right just to get the nomination that the things he or she says will become poison pills in the GE in November.

Therefore, in the search for new blood in the party, how long is it going to take before ABB sets-in in the GOP, in order to avoid such a long, protracted primary season?

This is an honest question and not meant to flame, and as I said right at the beginning, the same question could be posed of the Democrats concerning the name "Clinton" - only, the Democratic field is likely not going to be nearly as crowded as the GOP looks like it is going to be. By my estimate, when all is said and done, 12-13 candidates will have declared. By May 5th, we will already be at FIVE or SIX GOP declarees, without Bush, Christie or Walker.

Take the poll and let us know what you think.

 

[Moonglow]

I'm not sure, they still are too bust choking, spitting, pissing and moaning over Hillary..

 

[Sonny Clark]

Now, before I begin, the same question could theoretically be asked of the Democrats, in which case, it would be the "ABC"-Syndrome.

The sense I get from the OVERWHELMING majority of Conservatives here in USMB and from Conservatives in the real world, is that they don't think that a third Bush can get elected, that Jeb's family name is a problem for him.

Some articles to illustrate:

A local Republican leader says Jeb Bush could have a problem in New Hampshire - Yahoo Finance

One NH GOP chair says locals aren't anti-Bush, they just aren't pro.According to one influential New Hampshire Republican, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (R) has not emerged as a favorite with local activists in the crucial early primary state.

In fact, Bruce Perlo, chair of New Hampshire's Grafton County GOP, said it seems like area Republicans prefer other options.

Bush is currently campaigning in New Hampshire and Perlo was among the local conservatives who gathered Thursday night in Concord, New Hampshire, for a "Politics and Pie" town hall-style event. Perlo said local Republicans don't have bad things to say about Bush, but they are gravitating towards other candidates.

"What I haven't heard is people saying, 'I don't like Jeb Bush because he's a Bush or I don't like his policies,'" Perlo told Business Insider. "They've just said nothing. What I'm hearing is that they think Cruz, or Rubio is a better guy. They haven't tried to knock anybody down."

Jennifer Horn, chair of the New Hampshire Republican Party, similarly concluded that while Bush has dominated the fundraising race, he hasn't locked down an advantage in the Granite State.

"You don't have to raise $100 million to be heard in New Hampshire," she told the New York Times, adding, "There are no front-runners here right now."

George W. Bush admits he is Jeb Bush s biggest problem in 2016 - Yahoo Finance

Former President George W. Bush has a one word description for a major problem his younger brother, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (R), will face if he enters the 2016 presidential election:

"Me."

President Bush, who left office with a dismal 35% approval rating, came clean about the reality of the country's fatigue with his family's political dynasty on Wednesday, when he spoke in Chicago the Healthcare Information and Management Systems Society conference.

"It's an easy line to say, 'Haven't we had enough Bushes?' After all, even my mother said, 'Yes,'" he told the crowd, according to Politico.

President Bush also said he won't play a major role if his brother runs in 2016.

Jeb Bush s 100 million problem - Ben White - POLITICO

Bush advisers are scrambling to drive down lofty fundraising expectations

We saw some of this in 2010/2011, as many Republicans were saying "ABR" - "anyone but Romney", but, even though stuck at 23% in GOP polling for almost two years straight, Romney ended up being the nominee.

So, I am not saying that Jeb Bush will not be the GOP standard-bearer. Well, first he needs to announce. But in polling against Hillary, in most cases, both Rand Paul and Marco Rubio are doing better against her. And I have seen a disproportionately large amount of negative commentary about Bush all over the place, including USMB.

So, my question is: how long will it take before "anybody but Bush"-Syndrome sets-in with the GOP?

1 month - June 2015?
3 months - September 2015?
5 months - November 2015?
7 months - January 2016?
Never?
Not sure?

Now, a number of members, like rightwinger - are pretty darned sure that Jeb Bush is going to be the Republican nominee. I am not entirely sure. But for the first time in my lifetime, I am seeing the possibility of the largest GOP field since 1940 and the real possibility of a 2nd or 3rd ballot convention, possibly even a dark-horse scenario (although I surmise that is still pretty unlikely).

My reasons for this are clear:

1. ) The splintering of the GOP within itself over a number of issues. Hatred of Hillary Clinton alone is not going to do the job. The GOP needs many new young followers, but those who are young are likely going to either be the more Libertarian or more fundie Christian types, a "clientele" much more likely to support a Ted Cruz, a Mike Huckabee or a Rand Paul.

2.) The southern factor: the GOP tried it with a Northerner in 2012, and it didn't work. Here again, Rand Paul, Mike Huckabee and this time, Marco Rubio could have chances, but Florida is not the deep South like the rest of the South, both Rubio and Bush could easily be seen as outsiders outside of Florida itself. And then there is the Walker factor - Governor of a large Midwestern state who is gaining a lot of support and since he is perceived as a moderate, would be a threat to Jeb.

From my viewpoint, the long and short of it is:

the bigger the GOP crowd, the more splittered it is, the longer this thing is going to drag on and then the same catch-22 happens in 2016 as happened in 2012: in order to get the nomination, the candidate who wins will have to tack to hard to the extreme Right just to get the nomination that the things he or she says will become poison pills in the GE in November.

Therefore, in the search for new blood in the party, how long is it going to take before ABB sets-in in the GOP, in order to avoid such a long, protracted primary season?

This is an honest question and not meant to flame, and as I said right at the beginning, the same question could be posed of the Democrats concerning the name "Clinton" - only, the Democratic field is likely not going to be nearly as crowded as the GOP looks like it is going to be. By my estimate, when all is said and done, 12-13 candidates will have declared. By May 5th, we will already be at FIVE or SIX GOP declarees, without Bush, Christie or Walker.

Take the poll and let us know what you think.

In my opinion, it'll be a chess game for several more months until the general public leans a certain way. In other words, neither party wants a sure loser to be the star attraction in the show. Just put the feelers out and see what develops. Besides, both parties have an unlimited bank account to stretch this out as far as they deem necessary in order to produce a winner.

The names Clinton and Bush carry baggage, and voters can be easily swayed to look the other way. In addition, remember, the majority of voters are either die-hard Democrats, or die-hard Republicans, and they'll vote party regardless of what name appears on the ballot.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Indeed, it's about 15% in the true middle that will decide the election.

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[jon_berzerk]

i will not vote for another bush

i would not vote for hillary either

they both are frikkin pukes

 

[Luddly Neddite]

How long till "ABB"-Syndrome sets in...?

Before W's corrupt, lying daddy bought his first term for him.

Oh, you mean now?

He will be the candidate and they will drag themselves to the polls and vote for him.

Just saw that the Koch's will be putting $3billion toward buying their candidate and haven't heard how much Adelson is spending to buy his. The GOP is indeed splintered to the point of total chaos. What Norquist said is still true though.

 

[Luddly Neddite]

Just saw a news story saying that Adelson's puppet this time around may be Rubio.

 

[rightwinger]

There will probably be an "Anybody but Bush" movement among Republicans....they like to eat there own

But it will be nowhere near what we saw with Romney. In spite of a full GOP Clown Car, I think most Republicans will fall in behind Jeb

Walker is the only candidate who can last to the end and I expect him to drop out prior to the conventions

 

[Statistikhengst]

Just saw a news story saying that Adelson's puppet this time around may be Rubio.

That would be an interesting symbiosis.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

I'll take, "Who are the Koch's Backing" for $2 billion, Alex

 

[bendog]

Just saw a news story saying that Adelson's puppet this time around may be Rubio.

That would be an interesting symbiosis.

yeah, Adelson's backing Marco, and the Koch's are bankrolling Walker. Adelson imo is irrelevant. Rubio can stay in, but seriously is he going to appeal to enough REPUBLICAN voters in Iowa, NH and SC to amount to anything? I might vote for the guy, but I'm not a teapartier, anti-establishment NEer or a racist.

I think Jeb's vulnerable. But everytime I see Walker on TV, he looks like Joe McCarthy .... "enemies, I see enemies everywhere" And, the more I learn about him, the more I think he's really just a corrupt stooge. It's one thing to want public employee unions to not extort politicians into giving them raises or else they'll get voted out, and it's another thing to use the issue to take money from education to give tax cuts to the top 1%.