Clinton How can Hillary lose?

[presonorek]

I made my predictions for the upcoming election using the interactive electoral map from CNN. My analysis was based upon historical voting patterns of the states. I don't see how Donald Trump could win but I didn't expect him to win the Republican nomination either. He is a surprising guy that always exceeds our expectations. Anybody else have an alternate prediction?

2016 Electoral Map (Interactive)

I predict Hillary to win 328 to 210.

 

[presonorek]

North Carolina - Red
New Hampshire - Red
Georgia - Red
Utah - Red
Arizona - Red

Nevada - Blue
Colorado - Blue
New Mexico - Blue
Virginia - Blue
Pennsylvania - Blue
Michigan - Blue
Wisconsin - Blue
Florida - Blue
Iowa - Blue
Ohio - Blue

Which one of those states did I guess incorrectly?

 

[Asclepias]

Surprisingly you may want to change Arizona to blue.

 

[DarkFury]

North Carolina - Red
New Hampshire - Red
Georgia - Red
Utah - Red
Arizona - Red

Nevada - Blue
Colorado - Blue
New Mexico - Blue
Virginia - Blue
Pennsylvania - Blue
Michigan - Blue
Wisconsin - Blue
Florida - Blue
Iowa - Blue
Ohio - Blue

Which one of those states did I guess incorrectly?

Red
New Mexico
Pennsylvania
Florida
But most important
California.

 

[presonorek]

North Carolina - Red
New Hampshire - Red
Georgia - Red
Utah - Red
Arizona - Red

Nevada - Blue
Colorado - Blue
New Mexico - Blue
Virginia - Blue
Pennsylvania - Blue
Michigan - Blue
Wisconsin - Blue
Florida - Blue
Iowa - Blue
Ohio - Blue

Which one of those states did I guess incorrectly?

Red
New Mexico
Pennsylvania
Florida
But most important
California.

I expect Trump to surprise us. He wouldn't be the first Republican to win California. I think Pennsylvania is a possibility. This would require a low voter turnout in Philadelphia. Florida is impossible to predict but Bush 1 and Bush 2 have won Florida. Maybe it was a well known name. Hillary's name is stronger than Trump's. I expect Hillary to win Florida. I need some more convincing on Florida. I just don't see it.

 

[presonorek]

Surprisingly you may want to change Arizona to blue.

That goes against historical data from 1992 - 2012. Do you expect California to remain blue?

 

[DarkFury]

North Carolina - Red
New Hampshire - Red
Georgia - Red
Utah - Red
Arizona - Red

Nevada - Blue
Colorado - Blue
New Mexico - Blue
Virginia - Blue
Pennsylvania - Blue
Michigan - Blue
Wisconsin - Blue
Florida - Blue
Iowa - Blue
Ohio - Blue

Which one of those states did I guess incorrectly?

Red
New Mexico
Pennsylvania
Florida
But most important
California.

I expect Trump to surprise us. He wouldn't be the first Republican to win California. I think Pennsylvania is a possibility. Florida is impossible to predict but Bush 1 and Bush 2 have won Florida. Maybe it was a well known name. Hillary's name is stronger than Trump's. I expect Hillary to win Florida. I need some more convincing on Florida. I just don't see it.

Florida has a lot of unemployed NASA workers and related companies. Trump wants a new shuttle and that could mean MILLIONS and MILLIONS to Florida. He takes Florida.

 

[presonorek]

North Carolina - Red
New Hampshire - Red
Georgia - Red
Utah - Red
Arizona - Red

Nevada - Blue
Colorado - Blue
New Mexico - Blue
Virginia - Blue
Pennsylvania - Blue
Michigan - Blue
Wisconsin - Blue
Florida - Blue
Iowa - Blue
Ohio - Blue

Which one of those states did I guess incorrectly?

Red
New Mexico
Pennsylvania
Florida
But most important
California.

I expect Trump to surprise us. He wouldn't be the first Republican to win California. I think Pennsylvania is a possibility. Florida is impossible to predict but Bush 1 and Bush 2 have won Florida. Maybe it was a well known name. Hillary's name is stronger than Trump's. I expect Hillary to win Florida. I need some more convincing on Florida. I just don't see it.

Florida has a lot of unemployed NASA workers and related companies. Trump wants a new shuttle and that could mean MILLIONS and MILLIONS to Florida. He takes Florida.

The unemployment rate in Florida is on par with the rest of the United States. Unemployment rate in Florida is 5.6%. In the United States it is 5.4%. There is a heavy retired population in Florida. I'm not even sure the unemployment rate plays that big of a role. Hillary Clinton has branded herself as the sleazy politician that was in your brother's class in elementary school. We all feel like we know her. She's the girl that grew up down the street. Donald Trump is the confident billionaire. The girl that grew up down the street gives people a warm and fuzzy even if they know she always was a dishonest person even in elementary school.

 

[Moonglow]

How can Hillary lose?

By not being elected....

 

[Moonglow]

North Carolina - Red
New Hampshire - Red
Georgia - Red
Utah - Red
Arizona - Red

Nevada - Blue
Colorado - Blue
New Mexico - Blue
Virginia - Blue
Pennsylvania - Blue
Michigan - Blue
Wisconsin - Blue
Florida - Blue
Iowa - Blue
Ohio - Blue

Which one of those states did I guess incorrectly?

Red
New Mexico
Pennsylvania
Florida
But most important
California.

I expect Trump to surprise us. He wouldn't be the first Republican to win California. I think Pennsylvania is a possibility. Florida is impossible to predict but Bush 1 and Bush 2 have won Florida. Maybe it was a well known name. Hillary's name is stronger than Trump's. I expect Hillary to win Florida. I need some more convincing on Florida. I just don't see it.

Florida has a lot of unemployed NASA workers and related companies. Trump wants a new shuttle and that could mean MILLIONS and MILLIONS to Florida. He takes Florida.

The unemployment rate in Florida is on par with the rest of the United States. Unemployment rate in Florida is 5.6%. In the United States it is 5.4%. There is a heavy retired population in Florida. I'm not even sure the unemployment rate plays that big of a role. Hillary Clinton has branded herself as the sleazy politician that was in your brother's class in elementary school. We all feel like we know her. She's the girl that grew up down the street. Donald Trump is the confident billionaire. The girl that grew up down the street gives people a warm and fuzzy even if they know she always was a dishonest person even in elementary school.

NW Arkansas's unemployment rate is 3%.Colorado's is 4%

 

[presonorek]

North Carolina - Red
New Hampshire - Red
Georgia - Red
Utah - Red
Arizona - Red

Nevada - Blue
Colorado - Blue
New Mexico - Blue
Virginia - Blue
Pennsylvania - Blue
Michigan - Blue
Wisconsin - Blue
Florida - Blue
Iowa - Blue
Ohio - Blue

Which one of those states did I guess incorrectly?

Red
New Mexico
Pennsylvania
Florida
But most important
California.

I expect Trump to surprise us. He wouldn't be the first Republican to win California. I think Pennsylvania is a possibility. Florida is impossible to predict but Bush 1 and Bush 2 have won Florida. Maybe it was a well known name. Hillary's name is stronger than Trump's. I expect Hillary to win Florida. I need some more convincing on Florida. I just don't see it.

Florida has a lot of unemployed NASA workers and related companies. Trump wants a new shuttle and that could mean MILLIONS and MILLIONS to Florida. He takes Florida.

The unemployment rate in Florida is on par with the rest of the United States. Unemployment rate in Florida is 5.6%. In the United States it is 5.4%. There is a heavy retired population in Florida. I'm not even sure the unemployment rate plays that big of a role. Hillary Clinton has branded herself as the sleazy politician that was in your brother's class in elementary school. We all feel like we know her. She's the girl that grew up down the street. Donald Trump is the confident billionaire. The girl that grew up down the street gives people a warm and fuzzy even if they know she always was a dishonest person even in elementary school.

NW Arkansas unemployment rate is 3%.Colorado's is 4%

Arkansas is almost always red. Colorado is up in the air but I think their demographics have changed a lot since they legalized marijuana. I predict Colorado to stay blue.

 

[presonorek]

How can Hillary lose?

By not being elected....

Good point. Which states will she lose that causes her to not get elected?

 

[Moonglow]

How can Hillary lose?

By not being elected....

Good point. Which states will she lose that causes her to not get elected?

I'll tell you after the election, until then it's a crap shoot...

 

[presonorek]

How can Hillary lose?

By not being elected....

Good point. Which states will she lose that causes her to not get elected?

I'll tell you after the election, until then it's a crap shoot...

Not really. There is historical data available that you can use to make your decision.

Nevada - Blue 2012, 2008, 1996, 1992
Colorado - Blue 2012, 2008
New Mexico - Blue 2012, 2008, 2000, 1996, 1992
Virginia - Blue 2012, 2008 Tim Kaine is from Virginia
Pennsylvania - Blue 2012, 2008, 2004, 2000, 1996, 1992 (not sure why it's considered a swing state)
Michigan - Blue 2012, 2008, 2004, 2000, 1996, 1992 (not sure why it's considered a swing state)
Wisconsin - Blue 2012, 2008, 2004, 2000, 1996, 1992 (not sure why it's considered a swing state)
Florida - Blue 2012, 2008, 1992
Iowa - Blue 2012, 2008, 2000, 1996, 1992
Ohio - Blue 2012, 2008, 1996, 1992

It isn't always a surprise. Sometimes it is fairly predictable. The data suggests Hillary will win by a landslide. This could be an election of surprises. Predictions aren't based on feelings. Trust me. Predictions aren't always right. That's ok. Really. It is.

 

[Moonglow]

How can Hillary lose?

By not being elected....

Good point. Which states will she lose that causes her to not get elected?

I'll tell you after the election, until then it's a crap shoot...

Not really. There is historical data available that you can use to make your decision.

Nevada - Blue 2012, 2008, 1996, 1992
Colorado - Blue 2012, 2008
New Mexico - Blue 2012, 2008, 2000, 1996, 1992
Virginia - Blue 2012, 2008 Tim Kaine is from Virginia
Pennsylvania - Blue 2012, 2008, 2004, 2000, 1996, 1992 (not sure why it's considered a swing state)
Michigan - Blue 2012, 2008, 2004, 2000, 1996, 1992 (not sure why it's considered a swing state)
Wisconsin - Blue 2012, 2008, 2004, 2000, 1996, 1992 (not sure why it's considered a swing state)
Florida - Blue 2012, 2008, 1992
Iowa - Blue 2012, 2008, 2000, 1996, 1992
Ohio - Blue 2012, 2008, 1996, 1992

It isn't always a surprise. Sometimes it is fairly predictable. The data suggests Hillary will win by a landslide. This could be an election of surprises. Predictions aren't based on feelings. Trust me. Predictions aren't always right. That's ok. Really. It is.

Predictions are excluding radial events that may change the calculable variables..

 

[presonorek]

Predictions are excluding radial events that may change the calculable variables..

Of course but the 2012 election wasn't like that. I donated money to the Romney/Ryan campaign. Just because I wanted Romney to win didn't mean that he would win. All the analysis I did suggested that Obama would win by a landslide. I was right even though I didn't like it. The 2012 election was easier to predict. Some of the swing states historically vote for or against an incumbent President or Vice President. Since Biden isn't the nominee this election isn't as easy to predict. I'll agree with that but all signs say that Hillary will win 328-210. I'm open to counter speculation.

 

[presonorek]

I think I am better qualified to make a prediction because I think they are both good candidates. Either winner would mean positive things for the Republican Party. People who have a preferred winner make bad speculators.

 

[J&K]

How can Hillary lose?

By not being elected....

Good point. Which states will she lose that causes her to not get elected?

California

AND

Colorado

For sure.

Johnson can also win this election.

Johnson win ultimate state Texas. At least.

 

[presonorek]

How can Hillary lose?

By not being elected....

Good point. Which states will she lose that causes her to not get elected?

California

AND

Colorado

For sure.

Johnson can also win this election.

Johnson win ultimate state Texas. At least.

Wait! Are you saying that Gary Johnson will win Texas and Trump will win California? Did you mention Colorado because that is where you have been visiting?

 

[J&K]

Off course.