How big of a false dawn will there be?

Discussion in 'Economy' started by william the wie, Jan 7, 2011.

  1. william the wie
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    william the wie Gold Member

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    Australian floods have taken out many of their coal fields and the US as the Saudi of coal will take up most of that slack.

    Chinese Capital Control reform will inject something in the low trillions of capital into the world economy as it gathers speed.

    The US is still best of the worst by a fairly wide margin so its safe haven status will kick in as the EU crisis worsens.

    That's the good news. The bad news.

    The EU crisis will worsen until it hits bottom but then all of the lovely loot will flow right back out just as soon as everyone is certain that the bottom has been reached.

    The Australian coal fields will reopen and take back the China and Indian markets due to a better than 2 to 1 logistics advantage relative to the US.

    The CCC reform is supposed to cushion the Chinese real estate bust, which is going to happen. Once it happens the flow of new money will end and perhaps reverse.

    In future episodes of how the US capital markets implode banking and residential real estate are still steering for the big splash at the bottom and the splash will be big.

    So what are going to be some of the non-obvious effects of these capital flows?
     
  2. uscitizen
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    uscitizen Senior Member

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    the rich get richer and the poor get poorer?
     
  3. loosecannon
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    loosecannon Senior Member

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    How do you "take out" a coal field?

    Is this hard rock mining or strip mining?

    If it is open pit mining I can see your point, but coal isn't ordinarily mined that way in the US anyway.
     
  4. william the wie
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    william the wie Gold Member

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    Insurance and liability costs are causing more mines worldwide to switch to strip mining. Most of the coal mine employment and deaths in the US are the result of shaft mining but most of our coal is from strip mines. I don't know the current figure for total costs/100 tons of coal for each type of mine but labor/safety costs per worker are much higher in shaft mines and those costs keep going up year by year. But you are right that most of the mines, not so much coal mines, in the US are hard rock mines. Coal mining involves much higher danger than the mining of other minerals because of the much higher percentage of poisonous/explosive gases trapped in the coal so changeover costs to terrace (horizontal strip mines that are rarely used and the name may have changed) and vertical strip mines become more positive every year.
     
  5. loosecannon
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    loosecannon Senior Member

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    Australia floods causing coal industry long-term damage
     
  6. william the wie
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    william the wie Gold Member

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    Yeah the BBC had a similar, perhaps the same, report a couple of days ago. The adverse effects of the floods on Australian agriculture means that costs will be up and revenues down for fixing the problems. With larger than normal spring floods in the FSU expected and continued disinvestment in agriculture in Argentina food exports from the US to the rest of the world will also sky-rocket and ethanol will be cut back or abandoned. Obama may be able to parley this into reelection.
     
  7. loosecannon
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    loosecannon Senior Member

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    "A snap survey by Reuters showed the median expectation among analysts was that recovery in coal output to pre-flood levels would take about three months."
     
  8. Trajan
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    Trajan conscientia mille testes

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    I think we are in for a huge re-adjustment as it applies to standard of living. yes cheap goods via low cost manuf. and productivity gains puts almost any gadget or household item within reach of even our lower classes, but this is a double edged sword, from a qualitative lifestyle and health stand point, the trend is downward at least for the next 30-50 years.
     
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    Last edited: Jan 8, 2011
  9. loosecannon
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    loosecannon Senior Member

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    yup, and global resource glitches only reinforce that
     
  10. Trajan
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    Trajan conscientia mille testes

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    dude, its 1931 all over again, we just have to much noise going on in the background that acts like a filter, preventing us from making the connections and of course the lack of historical perspective is huge imho.
     

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