General Election: Romney vs. Obama

[beretta304]

As I said before, polls do not matter, especially at this point. I posted this link because a certain someone here was wetting herself with glee because she thought Obama was going to run away with it because he was up a few points. It's still neck and neck and we haven't even had the debates yet.



RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - General Election: Romney vs. Obama

 

[Mac1958]

.

Interesting read:

Niall Ferguson: Why Obama Is Winning - Newsweek and The Daily Beast

Ferguson offers four theories for Obama's lead. Mine is that people are looking at their choices, they like Obama personally more than Romney, and they're not convinced Romney has the answers. Obama's primary question, "do you really want to go back to the ideas that got us here?", is perfectly reasonable. And believe it or not, there are some reasonable people out there, folks who aren't paralyzed by partisanship.

We'll see, huh? I just want this over with.

.

 

[JoeB131]

As I said before, polls do not matter, especially at this point. I posted this link because a certain someone here was wetting herself with glee because she thought Obama was going to run away with it because he was up a few points. It's still neck and neck and we haven't even had the debates yet.



RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - General Election: Romney vs. Obama

Point is, in the whole process, Romney has never been a head of Obama. RCP has managed to fudge a tie here and there in the average, but for the most part, Obama's been ahead and now he's pulling ahead, and it's a month until the debate.

Romney was a horrible candidate. He was a horrible candidate 4 years ago when Republicans rejected him and the Cult he road in on.

 

[Mac1958]

.

Robert Samuelson also has an interesting piece this morning, and it's actually similar to Ferguson's:

The pessimism and frustration define the debate. It's less about whether you're better off now than four years ago and more about whether you believe things will get better. Or put differently: Do Americans believe Obama has lost control of events, justifying a change at the top?

Crazy as it sounds, not everyone votes based simply on the letter after a candidate's name. Go figure! There are still people who are not convinced that Romney is the guy. Seems to me that, with unemployment still over 8%, that's the most likely answer for Obama's lead.

.

 

[beretta304]

.

Interesting read:

Niall Ferguson: Why Obama Is Winning - Newsweek and The Daily Beast

Ferguson offers four theories for Obama's lead. Mine is that people are looking at their choices, they like Obama personally more than Romney, and they're not convinced Romney has the answers. Obama's primary question, "do you really want to go back to the ideas that got us here?", is perfectly reasonable. And believe it or not, there are some reasonable people out there, folks who aren't paralyzed by partisanship.

We'll see, huh? I just want this over with.

.

I agree. I wish it were held next week and be done with it.

 

[beretta304]

.

Robert Samuelson also has an interesting piece this morning, and it's actually similar to Ferguson's:

The pessimism and frustration define the debate. It's less about whether you're better off now than four years ago and more about whether you believe things will get better. Or put differently: Do Americans believe Obama has lost control of events, justifying a change at the top?

Crazy as it sounds, not everyone votes based simply on the letter after a candidate's name. Go figure! There are still people who are not convinced that Romney is the guy. Seems to me that, with unemployment still over 8%, that's the most likely answer for Obama's lead.

.

I would also add what about one fact that plays enormously in Obama's favor...the African American vote.

He has 100% support. Those blacks willing to admit that they won't vote for him is so small is doesn't statistically register. Will they turn out is another matter.

The issue is the economy and jobs. The unemployment rate in the African American is much higher than the national average.

Obama should be trailing. I've heard the "if the Republicans had a better candidate" argument. Who or what constitutes a better candidate?


Not everyone will vote based on the letter after a candidate's name but we have indications that one bloc of voters will vote based on the color of the candidate's skin.

 

[Mac1958]

.

Robert Samuelson also has an interesting piece this morning, and it's actually similar to Ferguson's:

The pessimism and frustration define the debate. It's less about whether you're better off now than four years ago and more about whether you believe things will get better. Or put differently: Do Americans believe Obama has lost control of events, justifying a change at the top?

Crazy as it sounds, not everyone votes based simply on the letter after a candidate's name. Go figure! There are still people who are not convinced that Romney is the guy. Seems to me that, with unemployment still over 8%, that's the most likely answer for Obama's lead.

.

I would also add what about one fact that plays enormously in Obama's favor...the African American vote.

He has 100% support. Those blacks willing to admit that they won't vote for him is so small is doesn't statistically register. Will they turn out is another matter.

The issue is the economy and jobs. The unemployment rate in the African American is much higher than the national average.

Obama should be trailing. I've heard the "if the Republicans had a better candidate" argument. Who or what constitutes a better candidate?


Not everyone will vote based on the letter after a candidate's name but we have indications that one bloc of voters will vote based on the color of the candidate's skin.

You RACIST!



.

 

[beretta304]

.

Robert Samuelson also has an interesting piece this morning, and it's actually similar to Ferguson's:

The pessimism and frustration define the debate. It's less about whether you're better off now than four years ago and more about whether you believe things will get better. Or put differently: Do Americans believe Obama has lost control of events, justifying a change at the top?

Crazy as it sounds, not everyone votes based simply on the letter after a candidate's name. Go figure! There are still people who are not convinced that Romney is the guy. Seems to me that, with unemployment still over 8%, that's the most likely answer for Obama's lead.

.

I would also add what about one fact that plays enormously in Obama's favor...the African American vote.

He has 100% support. Those blacks willing to admit that they won't vote for him is so small is doesn't statistically register. Will they turn out is another matter.

The issue is the economy and jobs. The unemployment rate in the African American is much higher than the national average.

Obama should be trailing. I've heard the "if the Republicans had a better candidate" argument. Who or what constitutes a better candidate?


Not everyone will vote based on the letter after a candidate's name but we have indications that one bloc of voters will vote based on the color of the candidate's skin.

You RACIST!



.

Of course I am. When a fact is a fact and it goes against political correctness one is naturally a racist.


"In a discussion on CNN about a recent NBC/Wall Street Journal poll which showed that 0 percent of African American voters intended to support Mitt Romney over President Barack Obama,..."

Romney Has 0% Black Support Because He Calculated He ‘Doesn’t Need Blacks Or Latinos’

http://www.mediaite.com/tv/cnn-cont...-calculated-he-doesnt-need-blacks-or-latinos/


There's no other explanation.

Poll: Romney a Zero Among Black Voters

http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/Ke...2/08/23/poll-romney-a-zero-among-black-voters

Statistical Noise in Election Polls


http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/13/statistical-noise-in-election-polls/



Black Voter Turnout Could Make A Big Difference In Several Swing States, Report Finds



http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/07/17/black-voter-turnout_n_1680177.html


More:

http://www.google.com/search?q=NBC/...t:*&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&startIndex=&startPage=1

 

[LoneLaugher]

If the unemployment rate in the African American demographic wasn't higher historically......regardless of who has occupied the WH, you might be able to sniff at a salient point.

 

[LoneLaugher]

Fact: Beretta says polls do not matter.
Fact: Beretta often starts threads about polls.

Explain.

 

[JakeStarkey]

Polls do count, even if novices don't think so.

I agree that RealClearPolitics is a good source for poll averaging.

As I said before, polls do not matter, especially at this point. I posted this link because a certain someone here was wetting herself with glee because she thought Obama was going to run away with it because he was up a few points. It's still neck and neck and we haven't even had the debates yet.



RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - General Election: Romney vs. Obama

 

[Liberal]

It's still neck and neck and we haven't even had the debates yet.

Yeah, think it's bad now?

Wait until Rmoney gets shown the door during the debates.. The guys is WEAK, he had the most trouble against tools like Rick Perry and Santorum.

 

[JoeB131]

Obama should be trailing. I've heard the "if the Republicans had a better candidate" argument. Who or what constitutes a better candidate?
.

How about one you actually believe in.

The two arguments for Romney in the primaries were 1) He's electable and 2) He's been vetted (or a variation on that, "It's his turn.")

The argument never made was that he was a real convservative, a champion of the cause or anything like that. Because his record was mostly as a moderate Northeast liberal.

And of course, all the other options kind of stunk. Perry was stupid, Gingrich had more skeletons in his closet than Jeff Dahmner, Santorum was a religious fanatic, Cain was a womanizer, etc.

I do think the Republicans problems go deeper than Romney, as someone who finally jumped off the Crazy Train after four years of dithering about it.

I think they've put the interests of corporations above working people, I think they've systematically alienated women and minorities, and I think they've spent too much time pandering to religious zealots.

The thing is, Romney SHOULD be way ahead with the economy in the state it's in. He isn't because the Republicans have lost touch.

 

[LoneLaugher]

..............and Americans are not buying Mitt's weak attempts to explain how his desired economic policies differ from what we have already seen do not work.

 

[beretta304]

It's still neck and neck and we haven't even had the debates yet.

Yeah, think it's bad now?

Wait until Rmoney gets shown the door during the debates.. The guys is WEAK, he had the most trouble against tools like Rick Perry and Santorum.

That's your opinion and you're entitled to it. I see it a bit differently but neither of us is right or wrong until the debates are over. Even then there will be aguments over who won and who lost.

 

[LoneLaugher]

It's still neck and neck and we haven't even had the debates yet.

Yeah, think it's bad now?

Wait until Rmoney gets shown the door during the debates.. The guys is WEAK, he had the most trouble against tools like Rick Perry and Santorum.

That's your opinion and you're entitled to it. I see it a bit differently but neither of us is right or wrong until the debates are over. Even then there will be aguments over who won and who lost.

Well............how impressive. The way you are willing to walk out on that limb! So bold and controversial.

 

[Liberal]

It's still neck and neck and we haven't even had the debates yet.

Yeah, think it's bad now?

Wait until Rmoney gets shown the door during the debates.. The guys is WEAK, he had the most trouble against tools like Rick Perry and Santorum.

That's your opinion and you're entitled to it. I see it a bit differently but neither of us is right or wrong until the debates are over. Even then there will be aguments over who won and who lost.

Fair enough. We shall see..

Not sure how to respond to reply though.. First time I did not get a derogatory response from you.

 

[beretta304]

Yeah, think it's bad now?

Wait until Rmoney gets shown the door during the debates.. The guys is WEAK, he had the most trouble against tools like Rick Perry and Santorum.

That's your opinion and you're entitled to it. I see it a bit differently but neither of us is right or wrong until the debates are over. Even then there will be aguments over who won and who lost.

Fair enough. We shall see..

Not sure how to respond to reply though.. First time I did not get a derogatory response from you.

Want to know why? I've come to the conclusion that all this back and forth is really a waste of time. Each side is dug in so what are we really accomplishing here?

No one is going to change anyone's mind.

It's no secret that I want Romney to win. I've also come to the conclusion that it's an uphill battle for him, although not impossible.

The one comforting fact is that he (Obama) likely will have an all Republican Congress or at least one chamber that will be Republican. That will preclude him from doing more damage.

 

[Greenbeard]

Romney seems to have a rather low ceiling--and it's right about where Obama's floor is.

The fact that the best he could do coming out of his convention was a (brief) tie should worry his people.

 

[rightwinger]

.

Interesting read:

Niall Ferguson: Why Obama Is Winning - Newsweek and The Daily Beast

Ferguson offers four theories for Obama's lead. Mine is that people are looking at their choices, they like Obama personally more than Romney, and they're not convinced Romney has the answers. Obama's primary question, "do you really want to go back to the ideas that got us here?", is perfectly reasonable. And believe it or not, there are some reasonable people out there, folks who aren't paralyzed by partisanship.

We'll see, huh? I just want this over with.

.

In key swing states there are still people who are reluctant to return to the Bush years. Unless Romney is able to convince voters that he is offering a significant change....he will lose