It appears that from an average of polls in 1980, Reagan did maintain a lead. But in the Gallup poll things moved back and forth. In 2012, amazingly, Obama has survived terrible unemployment rates and has maintained a steady lead in both national polls as well as polls in the key battle ground states since February of this year. There was some tightening in August, but that was busted once the Democrats completed their convention. But now looking at Gallup's 7 day tracking poll, the race may be starting to tighten. Obama was out to 7 point lead in that poll about a week ago, but as of today that lead is down to 3. RCP average of polls gives him a 3.1 lead. The tough thing for Romney is that inspite of more Electoral College votes moving to read states because of population growth, the Electoral College is actually still set up in Obama's favor. If Obama just wins John Kerry's blue states from 2004, plus just 3 more states, Iowa, New Mexico, and Virginia for example, he wins the election. Wouldn't it be ironic if Romney won the popular vote but lost in the electoral college.