Does the government lie about unemployment?

Discussion in 'Economy' started by Neubarth, Dec 14, 2008.

  1. Neubarth
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    Neubarth At the Ballpark July 30th

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    I am convinced that the United States government has been continuing a lie about unemployment in the US that has gone on for years now. I have mentioned this to others before, but it really bothers me that Americans just accept the nonsense that their government feeds them. That type of attitude is what made it possible for Hiter to do the horrible things he did.

    About half of the people in the United States do not have jobs. To me that is nearly fifty percent unemployment. If you go to the linked site below, you will see that the US Government says that for the month of November 2008, about 154,616,000 people in the US had jobs of one type or another.

    Employment Situation Summary

    Knowing that the legal population of the United States is 306,000,000 people, that leaves a hell of a lot of people without work.

    About half of our citizens do not have work either full or part time. That is fifty percent unemployment. Now, I know that that includes the kids who are too young, the elderly who are too old, the sick who simply can not go to work and those who are physically incapable of working because of handicaps.

    Add all of them together, and what does that give you?

    If you estimated 50,000,000 for their number that would leave 102,000,000 who would take a job if they could find it. That is a hell of a lot more than the four million the government is telling us are unemployed.

    Now, I don’t know how many are really Too old, Too young, Too sick or Too handicapped, but I do know that it is not nearly half of our population. I strongly suspect that we have tens of millions who would like to work, but have not been able to land a job for years now. They are not counted in the labor pool because the truth is frightening.

    Why do we have this tremendous disparity in the actual reporting of the unemployed? I recommend to everybody we meet that they ask their governmental representatives to demand accurate reporting of the unemployment rate in the United States . I strongly suspect that our current unemployment is close to what it was during the Great Depression. I see so many people without jobs and homeless. That is the true indicator of how bad things are.
     
  2. alan1
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    alan1 USMB Mod Staff Member Supporting Member

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    50% unemployment.
    That's a stretch of the imagination.
    As you pointed out, kids and the elderly don't work. That's about half the population in and of itself.
     
  3. Neubarth
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    Neubarth At the Ballpark July 30th

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    Consider that people between the ages of Birth to 18 make up about 20 to 21 percent of the population and those who are 70 and over make up less than 7 percent of the population, how do you figure that those numbers combined add up to fifty percent?

    I add 20 and 7 and get 27 each time I try.
     
  4. alan1
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    alan1 USMB Mod Staff Member Supporting Member

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    Is age 70 when people retire?
    My mom retired at age 55 and dad did it at age 57.
    The US population over 60 is about to 17% and the population under 18 is closer to 25%. That adds up to 42%.
     
  5. editec
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    editec Mr. Forgot-it-All

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    Well...technical, as far as I know they don't lie.

    They take a survey of 50-60 thousand households and ASK people if they are employed, or if not, if they are ACTIVELY look for work.

    By asking in that way they effectively can ignore the discouraged workers who are not longer ACTIVELY looking for work.

    What they flat out are lying about, of course, is the rate of inflation or CPI.

    They have twisted common sense to such a point that they are typically underreporting the real rate of inflation that most of us are facing.

    Between 1997 and 1999 they made certain changes to the way inflation was computed that dramatically understate the inflation rate compared to previous computational methodlogy

    Critics describe this deception pointing to the follow changes:

    1. Consumer substiution - The BLS adaopted something called geometric weighting. So items going up in cost are computed at a lower rate, while items going down in cost are cuomputed are weighed in the formula as having more weight.

    2. Another lie is something they call hedonics. Basically this means that they were assuming that two itens which in their minds offered the same pleasure were of equal value if the consumer could substiute one for the other.

    3. The other game they play in the methodology has to do with how they weight the cost and value of renting or buying a home such that the raising cost of renting or owning a home is not really meausured meaningfully, EXPECIALLY given what a huge percentage of most people's incomes are really devtoed to their homes.

    That's too damned confusing for me explain, but rest assured they're basically using statistics to lie their asses off about how much the cost of keeping a roof over your head is actually costing you.


    How big is the difference if we use the pre 199 mothody of computing inflation?

    Huge.

    Computing 2006 CPI using the 1999 method gives us a CPI of 7%

    Computing 2006 inflation using the 2006 method gave us a CPI of 4%.

    That's UNDERstating the rate of inflation by three points or a factor of 75%!!


    Now why do they do that?

    Cost of Living Increases (COLAs) like for social security or military salaries are tied to the office Bureau oc Labor Statistics's CPI rates, that's why.

    3 points here, four points there, compounding over time and that's a whole lot of money (billions and billions and billions) that's NOT going into the pockets of millions upon millions of people getting social security, retirement bennies, and a whole lot of private contracts with businesses are ALSO pegged to the CPI, too.

    Basically, they're screwing retirees, and the working class (again) BIG TIME.
     
  6. Paulie
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    Paulie Platinum Member

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    If you're going to admit the government lies about something, you might as well realize they lie about everything. They have all the motivation in the world to lie about things.

    Why trust them on ANYTHING, when they already lie to you about how many people have jobs? They lie about it to keep you pacified. Same reason they lie about everything else.
     
  7. editec
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    editec Mr. Forgot-it-All

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    Because I cannot prove they're lying about everything, of course.

    But as it pertains to CPI, there is NO DOUBT about what they did since that is PUBLIC information.


    Soviet citizens used to mock americans by telling them

    " Yes, our government lies to us, but we KNOW they lie to us. Your goverment lies to you Americans and you idiots BELIEVE them"
     
  8. Paulie
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    Paulie Platinum Member

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    Poppycock.

    The average consumer responds to employment data before inflation data. The average person doesn't even understand inflation, but they understand having jobs or not, and what it means to the economy.

    If the gov. is lying about inflation, they're lying about employment as well.

    Waiting until you can prove it is wasting time. It's just something that ought to be considered a given. It doesn't benefit the government and the politicians to tell us the truth about employment, because the truth would hurt too much and probably put a lot of politicians, and the bureaucrats that depend on them, out of a job.
     
  9. auditor0007
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    auditor0007 Gold Member

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    Check the link for the actual percentages and numbers; Demographics of the United States - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    In reality, 60% of the total populaton is of working age, 20-65. That comes to a total of 183 million potential workers. Among that number is a percentage of disabled workers and a percentage of workers who choose not to work, as in stay at home Moms.

    So, the government numbers are fairly close. What the government does not take into account are those who have stopped looking for work. Once the unemployed stop receiveing unemployment benefits, many of them are no longer counted. Keeping this in mind, unemployment is likely closer to 10 or 12 percent, rather than 6 to 7 percent. The other problem, however, is that some of these people really don't want to work, so should we really consider them as unemployed?
     
  10. alan1
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    alan1 USMB Mod Staff Member Supporting Member

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    So, I was right for ridiculing the 50% figure that the OP said.
    I love it when I use common sense to point out the flaws of a post then somebody like you comes along and provides a link to prove my point.
    Thanks.
     

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