XponentialChaos
Platinum Member
- Jul 25, 2018
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Not ary a one of those pieces of shit manned up and said "Oh wow, were we wrong". No! They done quin-or-sextupled down on bullshit at this point. People have seen and know that, too.
I agree that this one looks bad. Personally, I think it makes more sense to look at an overall average rather than an individual poll.
Still, I wouldn't go so far as to say that polls are flat-out wrong. Something with a small probability is expected to happen sometimes. When that unlikely event comes up, it doesn't necessarily mean that the analysis was wrong - just that something unlikely actually happened.
I think it's true that Trump pulled an upset. Upsets happen. You're a sports guy I think - we see unlikely outcomes happen all the time in sports. They're expected to happen a certain amount of time. The underdog is expected to lose more than they win, but they're still expected to win sometimes. To me, 2016 was one of those upsets with his narrow victories in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.
I expect the overdog to win more often than the underdog. I expect polls to be correct more often than incorrect. But that's just me. At least you're consistent though.