Dr.Traveler
Mathematician
- Aug 31, 2009
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Beware A GOP Calendar Front-Loaded With States Friendly To Trump And Cruz
Beware A GOP Calendar Front-Loaded With States Friendly To Trump And Cruz
By DAVID WASSERMAN
In a few weeks’ time, it’s possible that Donald Trump and Ted Cruz will steamroll their way through Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina and dominate the so-called “SEC Primary” — the collection of 13 mostly Southern states that will vote on March 1 — horrifying many GOP elected officials and depriving any other candidate of a night to celebrate.
Yet even if that happens, it’s still possible that Marco Rubio (or another more establishment-friendly candidate) could end up with the nomination, thanks to quirks of the GOP’s complex delegate math.
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Interesting article about what to watch for as the race for delegates starts on the GOP side. As the article points out, Rubio's strategy in the beginning will likely to be to just hang in the race while waiting for the "winner takes all" states that tend to break towards more moderate candidates. This is right up my alley, as I tend to enjoy the math and strategy that plays out in the nomination process and this time around the GOP race will be the one to watch.
That said, the one thing I think this article misses is the fact that early losses tend to translate to a loss of donors. That means I don't see as clear a path to victory for someone who's best hope in the early races is third place.
Beware A GOP Calendar Front-Loaded With States Friendly To Trump And Cruz
By DAVID WASSERMAN
In a few weeks’ time, it’s possible that Donald Trump and Ted Cruz will steamroll their way through Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina and dominate the so-called “SEC Primary” — the collection of 13 mostly Southern states that will vote on March 1 — horrifying many GOP elected officials and depriving any other candidate of a night to celebrate.
Yet even if that happens, it’s still possible that Marco Rubio (or another more establishment-friendly candidate) could end up with the nomination, thanks to quirks of the GOP’s complex delegate math.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Interesting article about what to watch for as the race for delegates starts on the GOP side. As the article points out, Rubio's strategy in the beginning will likely to be to just hang in the race while waiting for the "winner takes all" states that tend to break towards more moderate candidates. This is right up my alley, as I tend to enjoy the math and strategy that plays out in the nomination process and this time around the GOP race will be the one to watch.
That said, the one thing I think this article misses is the fact that early losses tend to translate to a loss of donors. That means I don't see as clear a path to victory for someone who's best hope in the early races is third place.
