CDZ Current Projections for 2016

[william the wie]

Big la nina coming.

A huge increase in number of hurricanes in the east and a gigantic fire season in the west.

$32/bbl oil

The pipelines now under construction should reduce Marginal Costs by at least 50%. Advances in drilling and seismic interpretation will reduce costs even further.

(the basic data is from today's MarketWatch with cross checks from other sources such as oil price.com.)

derivative Projections

China's attempt to seize possible oil fields in the South China Sea during a secular decline in oil prices will in retrospect be seen as one of the dumbest moves ever.

Iran will reach world markets right in the middle of the worst decline ever.

 

[DarkFury]

Russia expands its terrorist bombing to include the oil fields of Iraq there by ensuring stability of price for Iran's oil.

 

[william the wie]

Russia expands its terrorist bombing to include the oil fields of Iraq there by ensuring stability of price for Iran's oil.

Given the state of Iran's oil fields and the low quality of its crude I doubt that will help Iran. As to Russia doing what you think it will it does seen probable that it will happen.

 

[DarkFury]

Russia expands its terrorist bombing to include the oil fields of Iraq there by ensuring stability of price for Iran's oil.

Given the state of Iran's oil fields and the low quality of its crude I doubt that will help Iran. As to Russia doing what you think it will it does seen probable that it will happen.

This is one of those times when quality takes a back seat to the product being available. And its a demand product. So what if I build a better mouse trap if it can't get to your door its of no use to you.

 

[william the wie]

During the biggest oil glut in history?. DF it costs $15-20/BBL extra in refining costs compared to WTI to use Iranian crude. At a price of $35 Iranian crude is near, above or below I don't know, its breakeven point for anything but domestic use until and unless it can build a port for a 1500-3000ft long with a pre-clean refinery on site. True, it is not as nasty as Canadian, Venezuelan or Nigerian but that ain't saying a lot.. Trans-Canada was offered to the US Gratis because no one else wanted it.

 

[DarkFury]

During the biggest oil glut in history?. DF it costs $15-20/BBL extra in refining costs compared to WTI to use Iranian crude. At a price of $35 Iranian crude is near, above or below I don't know, its breakeven point for anything but domestic use until and unless it can build a port for a 1500-3000ft long with a pre-clean refinery on site. True, it is not as nasty as Canadian, Venezuelan or Nigerian but that ain't saying a lot.. Trans-Canada was offered to the US Gratis because no one else wanted it.

I think light "sweet" crude will become its own market in the near future. Kind of like gold VS copper.

 

[william the wie]

Could be but with NG selling for $10/bbl equivalent or less what would be the market for sour crude?

 

[DarkFury]

Could be but with NG selling for $10/bbl equivalent or less what would be the market for sour crude?

Light sweet crude will move to power only first world nations. The others much like now will serve the second class. This can be seen already by the U.N. ordering us to clean and raise our standards while others are allowed to slide.

 

[william the wie]

Maybe.