Is our strategy in Afghanistan working? Is COIN the best way to handle it? Should we bail or should we send in reinforcements? I think COIN, Counterinsurgency, is the most effective means of winning a war against a guerrilla force hiding among the local population. Unlike conventional warfare, it isn't as easy to determine victory since it usually doesn't involve large battles, defined front lines or acquisition and control of real estate. http://usacac.army.mil/CAC2/coin/repository/COIN_Center_Pamphlet.pdf US Army Combined Arms Center | Blank Page
The COIN field manual is available on Amazon, but also available on the web. Marine Corps COIN manual http://www.fas.org/irp/doddir/army/fm3-24fd.pdf Here is the U.S. government guide on COIN: http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/119629.pdf
As for your choices..none of the above. I would say that it's sort of working, but the expense is simply not worth it. Afghanistan is much to tribal at this point to achieve a cohesive, functional, western democracy and that sort of thing grows as a result of domestic desire. It needs to come from the Afghans.
COIN isn't their homegrown idea? Agreed. So what? That's like saying your house is on fire but you don't want to use the services of the volunteer fire department because you want to be independent. BTW, before the Soviets invaded, Afghanistan had a pretty well functioning government. Yes, there were problems, but overall it was not a bad place for a Third World country. Now, with all of the resources recently discovered there, they have the opportunity to grow and prosper if given the chance. U.S. Identifies Vast Mineral Riches in Afghanistan - NYTimes.com