China appears to be Crash Landing and maybe the EU too

[william the wie]

The early reports on futures sound like the US may have a sympathetic dip as well. If cutting a trade deal with China doesn't work to slow down the Japanese style collapse this might get hairy.

 

[BuckToothMoron]

China growth rates are very likely inflated, or at least unreliable. This is going to be pretty global. Most of the QE from all the central banks is either slowed or gone. I’d be shocked if we don’t experience a Recession before the end of 2020. Long overdue.

 

[Andylusion]

There is a business cycle. They will rebound. Unless they push policies that screw up their economy.

 

[JLW]

This may come as shock to some, but we do not live in a vacuum. What happens in the rest of the world effects us as well.

 

[Moonglow]

MAGA

 

[Crepitus]

Don't worry guys, I heard trade wars are fun and easy to win.

 

[Tommy Tainant]

Expect a bounce in Europe when Brexit is binned.

 

[william the wie]

There is a business cycle. They will rebound. Unless they push policies that screw up their economy.

Which they have been doing since at least the 90s, maybe the 80s. They put the Japanese model of industrialization on steroids

 

[shockedcanadian]

Big deal. It's about job numbers in the U.S and about crushing the Communist government of China.

If the U.S Fed didn't raise interest rates so often the U.S would be sheltered from it since the worlds businesses head to America.

 

[Andylusion]

Big deal. It's about job numbers in the U.S and about crushing the Communist government of China.

If the U.S Fed didn't raise interest rates so often the U.S would be sheltered from it since the worlds businesses head to America.

I don't buy that.

I do not think that interest rates are the defining factor in where business moves to.

I think profits are the biggest factor in where people invest.

 

[william the wie]

Big deal. It's about job numbers in the U.S and about crushing the Communist government of China.

If the U.S Fed didn't raise interest rates so often the U.S would be sheltered from it since the worlds businesses head to America.

I don't buy that.

I do not think that interest rates are the defining factor in where business moves to.

I think profits are the biggest factor in where people invest.

That's why China is in trouble. With debt 4X GDP there ain't no profit with that high of an EBITDA

 

[shockedcanadian]

Big deal. It's about job numbers in the U.S and about crushing the Communist government of China.

If the U.S Fed didn't raise interest rates so often the U.S would be sheltered from it since the worlds businesses head to America.

I don't buy that.

I do not think that interest rates are the defining factor in where business moves to.

I think profits are the biggest factor in where people invest.

That's why China is in trouble. With debt 4X GDP there ain't no profit with that high of an EBITDA

Are those real stats? Please provide a source, that's sounds extremely high and I haven't this to be the case.

 

[Andylusion]

Big deal. It's about job numbers in the U.S and about crushing the Communist government of China.

If the U.S Fed didn't raise interest rates so often the U.S would be sheltered from it since the worlds businesses head to America.

I don't buy that.

I do not think that interest rates are the defining factor in where business moves to.

I think profits are the biggest factor in where people invest.

That's why China is in trouble. With debt 4X GDP there ain't no profit with that high of an EBITDA

That is government debt, correct? What does that have to do with companies?

If you are operating a company without much debt, the government could have trillions in debt, and should have no effect.

Apple Computer comes to mind.

 

[william the wie]

Rather than get in a source Debate just google China debt 4X GDP

 

[william the wie]

Big deal. It's about job numbers in the U.S and about crushing the Communist government of China.

If the U.S Fed didn't raise interest rates so often the U.S would be sheltered from it since the worlds businesses head to America.

I don't buy that.

I do not think that interest rates are the defining factor in where business moves to.

I think profits are the biggest factor in where people invest.

That's why China is in trouble. With debt 4X GDP there ain't no profit with that high of an EBITDA

That is government debt, correct? What does that have to do with companies?

If you are operating a company without much debt, the government could have trillions in debt, and should have no effect.

Apple Computer comes to mind.

Most of China GDP is in SOEs (State Owned Enterprises) and provincial debts. The SOEs run at zero profits as part of the safety net and there are non-debt debts in the private sector as well that are not counted so the 4X GDP is the most lowball number the politburo thinks it can get away with.