Chapman University predicts Obama election loss

[Stephanie]

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SNIP:
December 6th, 2011, 1:54 pm · · posted by Martin Wisckol, Politics reporter
inShare.2Chapman University’s economics brain trust has run a formula they say predicts presidential winners – and it shows the Republican will win next year, regardless of the nominee.

Wanna bet?

Ireland’s largest bookmaker would take those Chapman profs’ stake. PaddyPower gives Democrat Barack Obama a narrow edge to win, at 10/11. Republicans Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich are neck-and-neck, each at 3-1.

Chapman’s formula, developed at the Orange school’s Anderson Center for Economic Research, works out to predict every presidential election winner but one, dating back to 1944. The exception was picking Richard Nixon to beat John F. Kennedy in 1960. It accurately picked Al Gore to win the popular vote in 2000, although George W. Bush won via the Electoral College.

Chapman’s model, which takes into account party but not the candidates, is based on three variables:
Approval rating of the incumbent party’s sitting president on year prior to the election.
Percentage change in real GDP in the election year.
Percentage change in employment in the election year.
Chapman predicts 2.3 percent GDP growth next year and 1.1 percent job growth.

All that adds up to Obama losing by 8.1 percent.

Read Chapman’s explanation and see its table comparing forecast and outcomes for presidential elections going back to 1944.


read it all here..
Chapman University predicts Obama election loss - Total Buzz : The Orange County Register